Lower Hutt youth facility upping its security after escape

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Epuni Care and Protection Facility is upping its security following an absconding incident on 15 March. Google Maps

On a Sunday shortly after midday, a young man at an Oranga Tamariki youth facility enters one of its secure units and disappears from view.

When he reappears on camera a minute later, he seems to be adjusting something under his clothes.

Fast-forward a few hours and he’s captured again, standing outside the secure residence’s courtyard gate, while four young people play basketball inside.

Suddenly, the basketballers make a break for it, the gate opens and they flee into the car park.

A staff member chases two youths through multiple private properties before losing sight of them. The pair are eventually picked up by police.

The young man who appears to have orchestrated the escape, doesn’t leave – he simply watches it unfold.

Documents reveal apparent plot

Oranga Tamariki (OT) said the Epuni Care and Protection Facility is upping its security following the absconding incident on 15 March.

Documents obtained under the Official Information Act indicate plans to escape were likely underway by midday that day.

A timeline based on a review of the CCTV footage revealed multiple youths were involved, with one resident getting his hands on a radio and keys to a locked gate.

Oranga Tamariki says it is taking action to improve security measures to prevent this from happening again. RNZ

A spokesperson for OT had nothing further to add from a previous statement by residential services care and protection manager, Karen Gillies, who said the organisation was “looking into the incident to determine how it occurred and consider any lessons we can take forward”.

The documents – redacted in part to protect the privacy of those involved (referred to as young persons A, B, C, D, and E) – track the escape and the response from OT, with a flurry of text messages between managers and facility staff beginning shortly after 7.30pm.

“Po Marie team. Urgent escalation. We have two young people abscond from Epuni. Police notified. It appears that our young person currently staying in the flat has somehow let these two young people out via a courtyard gate.

“We don’t know whether it was already unlocked or whether he has obtained a key.”

A manager responds: “Gosh that’s not good. Was it over the wire or on an outing.”

The facility has two secure residential units, in addition to a non-secure whānau flat where rangatahi (young people) can stay before returning to the community.

A text at 9.24pm said a search at the flat led to the discovery of two keys and a radio.

“Police have not located our missing two yet. CCTV review and key audit being done … kids unsettled this evening with a number of young people now in secure care.”

The CCTV timeline showed young person A – who was meant to remain at the whānau flat – having repeated run-ins with staff at the secure residence.

At 12.03pm young person A heads to where the keys are located in the secure building’s administrative entry.

When he comes back into view, he’s fixing his clothes and upon returning to the flat cameras capture him removing what looks like two sets of keys.

Four hours later, he’s back in the entryway talking to young person B through a door. When staff try to get him to leave, he dodges past them running down to young person C’s room and saying something to them as he’s escorted out.

Shortly before 7pm, a group of four staying in the secure residence (young persons B, C, D and E) start up a game of basketball in the courtyard, with the review noting, “all rangatahi are clothed including having their shoes on”.

At the same time inside the flat, young person A waits for the security guard to finish their checks before heading to the secure facility’s courtyard gate.

In an initial incident email that night, he’s described as “fiddling with the gate, and as we have learnt opening it and encouraging the other rangatahi to leave”.

Things unfold quickly over the next few minutes.

At 6.58pm the basketballers make a break for it running towards the gate, which opens.

Staff in pursuit are captured on CCTV a minute later “shadowing the rangatahi” in the car park.

Young person C escapes the grounds and is quickly followed by young person D who breaks free from staff. An incident report details a staff member chasing the pair through multiple private properties before losing sight of them.

The timeline notes young person E returns to the secure residence with staff, while B tries to evade them before being placed in a “high-level safety intervention hold” – described by an OT spokesperson as a physical holding technique staff are trained to use. The time is 7.02pm.

Young person A just watches, making no attempt to leave.

Later, staff question him about how the gate opened and give him amnesty to hand over anything he shouldn’t have, the review said.

Young person A initially declined to speak, but later admitted he had a radio and two sets of keys in the flat.

According to police, by 7.03pm they’ve received a call about a “vehicle doing loops appearing to be following a teenage boy and girl,” who later turn out to be the missing pair.

At 7.36pm, the missing youths are called in by an OT support worker, a police spokesperson said.

They said the pair were later picked up after a report of a male and female arguing in the early hours of Monday morning.

Facility boosting its security

Summarising the events, OT deputy chief executive youth justice services and residential care Dean Winter said the absconding youths were back at the facility around 4am.

There, they underwent wellbeing checks and were placed in the facility’s secure care unit due to “heightened behaviour,” he said.

“All rangatahi at the residence were supported by kaimahi [staff] throughout the incident,” Winter said.

Winter said CCTV footage indicated young person A triggered the events by “gaining access to gate keys for the residence (along with a radio)”.

“This allowed him to unlock a side gate from the courtyard, and he appears to have encouraged other rangatahi to leave the residence.”

He said it’s unclear how exactly he got his hands on the keys.

“Oranga Tamariki is taking action to improve security measures to prevent this from happening again, including an upgrade of our CCTV systems which was already underway.”

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‘Bad timing’ ferry fuel surcharge will disproportionately affect farmers, says transport leader

Source: Radio New Zealand

supplied

An industry leader in livestock transport has described price hikes for freight crossing the Cook Strait as coming at the worst possible time of year for farmers.

Late Autumn marked a busy seasonal period for the movement of livestock between the North and South islands, particularly for cattle, as dairy farmers approached the end of the season and autumn bulls were sold and moved.

Farmers already struggling with extra fuel and fertiliser costs due to war in the Persian Gulf, would face even higher livestock transport bills for crossing the crucial New Zealand strait.

KiwiRail increased its monthly fuel adjustment factor (FAF) for commercial operators using its Interislander ferry to 54 percent to cover increased fuel costs. Bluebridge’s FAF was currently at 37 percent, after peaking at 48 percent last month.

A number of South Island transport companies moving livestock, apples and wine that spoke to RNZ were wincing at the new fees they expected to have to absorb.

They expected fresh produce to be most impacted, as well as wine from Marlborough and livestock.

FAF increase ‘bad timing’ for dairy farmers

National Livestock Transport and Safety Council chairman, Derek Foley, said herds were shifting through late April and May, largely due to new farm or herd purchases and winter planning.

“There’s probably 50 or 60 percent more livestock transitioned over the ferry in this period of time through to early June than any other time through the year,” he said.

“So this is really bad timing to put a catch-up FAF on, disproportionately affecting the farmers.”

Part of the Foley Transport empire in Waipukurau, he said dairy farmers would be particularly impacted in these busy months, ahead of more localised Moving Day movements on 1 June.

“It’s a discussion that a lot of carriers are going to have over the next week or two as these movements start, and I suppose the washout of that’s going to be extremely more expensive cartage on the ferry for the dairy farming industry that’s transferring stock down South Island.”

Foley said transport companies and freight forwarders enforced their own weekly fuel adjustment factor early on in war in the Persian Gulf – which he described as “evenly-spread”, peaking at 41 percent but now down to 27 percent.

He said ferry operators increasing their surcharges only now, and at a comparatively high rate, would disproportionately affect rural cartage.

“Because the ferry companies are trying to recoup cost from earlier increases they hadn’t done by applying a weekly FAF to their services, it sort of disproportionately impacted rural transport, that’s the issue.”

He said the Interislander surcharge could cost farmers an extra $500 per sailing for a couple hundred cattle from north to south, for example.

In a statement on Tuesday, Rail Minister Winston Peters told RNZ the Interislander should not be expected to absorb fuel price increases.

Interislander

Ferry availability already ‘concerning’

Several livestock firms speaking with RNZ said availability of the ferries was extremely challenging at present, with further disruption expected.

Foley said it was working with the ferry companies to manage the Kaiārahi being temporarily out of action for maintenance from next month.

“There’s a couple of issues with the strait, obviously there’s the lack of services and the concern with the maintenance programme that’s going to be put in place, so it’s even going to be less.

“So scheduling livestock to get over and manage the welfare around that is pretty concerning.”

Foley said a couple more ferries and better competition were needed.

“We can’t control that, but that’s our dream.”

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Nonnamaxxing: How living like an Italian grandma can benefit health and wellbeing

Source: Radio New Zealand

The key to better wellbeing is acting like an Italian grandmother, according to social media’s “nonnamaxxing” trend.

Proponents of the trend say that adopting the lifestyle habits of an Italian nonna will help improve your health and mental wellbeing. The core principles of the trend are simple: make time for your friends and loved ones, eat foods grown from your own garden and cook hearty meals at home.

This latest trend borrows from lifestyle medicine research which shows the same practices being advocated by nonnamaxxing enthusiasts can not only add years to your life, but add life to your years.

Physical activity and moving every day are among key factors that have been linked with longevity.

Unsplash

So instead of jumping on the nonnamaxxing bandwagon until the next trend rolls around, here are some examples of how you can adopt these habits for life.

Positive social connections

A core tenet of “nonnamaxxing” is making time for friends and loved ones.

Research shows maintaining positive social connections is one of the most helpful factors in supporting health across your lifespan. Social experiences help us regulate emotionally. Not only does this impact our happiness and wellbeing, it also has a whole host of other physiological benefits.

For instance, laughing with our loved ones or holding their hand reduces pain and dampens the stress response. Research also shows social connection can reduce inflammation and improve immune responses.

This doesn’t mean you need to rush out and get married – it’s not just about romantic relationships. Relationships come in many forms. Even micro-moments of positive social interaction – such as having a brief chat with a barista – have measurable health and wellbeing benefits. Research has also found that people who volunteer have a lower risk of catching the common cold.

Collective experiences such as concerts, rituals, dancing, singing or cheering together can also generate “collective effervescence” – a feeling of unity, aliveness and belonging.

When we interact in person, our brains and bodies synchronise with that person in a way that feels good, supports connection and supports health. We feel a greater sense of purpose, belonging and self-worth.

Try gardening

Physical activity and moving every day are among key factors that have been linked with longevity.

But this doesn’t mean you need to hit the gym or go running to see benefits. Even gardening, an activity we might typically associated with an Italian nonna’s lifestyle, has been associated with health benefits.

Gardening is a physically stimulating activity that translates into increased mobility and reduced sedentary behaviour. Reviews also show it’s good for mental health and quality of life.

Due to its multimodal nature, gardening stimulates the brain. We need to plan, coordinate, remember to remember and monitor changes in our garden over time. This type of stimulation supports the development of cognitive reserve – additional healthy brain tissue that helps offset the functional impairments of diseased brain matter as we age. This may explain why activities such as gardening are associated with lower likelihood of being diagnosed with dementia.

Cooking at home can give us meaning.

Unsplash

Home-cooked meals

Another core tenet of nonnamaxxing is cooking meals at home.

The more frequently you cook at home, the better. Those who cook their own meals tend to have a higher intake of fruit, vegetables and fiber. Cooking at home also means you tend to consume fewer calories, fats and added sugar, which may help regulate blood sugar, reduce body fat and prevent type 2 diabetes.

In the field of positive psychology, cooking is described as an activity that captures key parts of what makes us happy – such as positive emotions and a sense of meaning and accomplishment.

How to get started

If you’re keen to give nonnamaxxing a try, here are a few easy ways to be more like an Italian nonna in your everyday life.

We all know by now that socialising and meeting friends and family is good for us, but if you can’t get together in person make use of technology.

Although technology isn’t quite as good as real-life interactions, try making these interactions intentional when they do happen. Being emotionally responsive, engaged and letting your loved one know you’re there – even while texting – can increase connection and warmth.

And when contacting friends or family, try to call – or at least send a voice message. Social interactions using our voices create stronger social connection compared to text-based interactions.

To give gardening a try, start with something small that grows easily. Even if it’s just a small tomato or strawberry plant you can put on your windowsill. This will give you a sense of purpose, and you’ll be able to enjoy the fruits of your labour, too, which is good for your health.

If you don’t want the responsibility of a garden, getting outside and being in nature – especially in parks or near rivers – will boost both physical activity levels and improve health and wellbeing.

As for cooking your meals at home, don’t feel like you need to start with a complicated recipe. Start with making sandwiches or even snacks and build up to cooking a dinner. Remember, cooking is a skill; you can learn by following a recipe or cooking video.

If you don’t have the time to cook, try eating with someone. Eating together boosts social connection and provides a sense of safety and belonging. If you don’t have anyone to eat with, try picking a food or meal that reminds you of a loved one. This food nostalgia can reproduce feelings of warmth and connection.

While the nonnamaxxing trend may be forgotten in a week, it describes a way of living that’s generations old. Living like an Italian grandma hasn’t just passed the test of time, it’s been tested by health and wellbeing researchers too.

Trudy Meehan is lecturer, at the Centre for Positive Psychology and Health, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences.

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‘Brown and disgusting’ water coming out of Palmerston North taps

Source: Radio New Zealand

One resident said the tap water had been “brown and disgusting”. Bev Smith / SUPPLIED

Residents across Palmerston North are complaining brown water has been coming out of their taps – or no water at all.

On Tuesday morning, Takaro resident Jennie Bracken woke up to no water coming from her taps, and found brown water coming out hours later.

“It was bursting and gurgling and everything, And when it did come on later, it was just so brown and disgusting.

“I let it run for a while, and it was no better.”

Bracken said she had no notification from the Palmerston North Council that it would happen.

She had to wait until later in the day to have a shower, and luckily had some water in her jug from the day before to make a coffee, she said.

“The issue needs to be sorted, and the people need to be advised if this sort of thing’s going to happen.”

In 2024/25, Palmerston North ratepayers paid fixed charges of $415 for drinking water and $375 for wastewater, according to the Central Districts Water website.

Three Waters group manager Mike Monaghan said the reason for the brown water on Tuesday was overnight repairs.

“Our water team carried out a major trunk main repair overnight on Tuesday in Takaro. During this work, the area’s water was supplied from the Turitea Water Treatment Plant, rather than the usual Takaro Bore.

“When supply was returned to the bore following the repair, some areas experienced discolouration.”

Monaghan said crews flushed pipes across the city until 6pm on Tuesday, but it was not always possible to remove all discoloured water from the network immediately.

Residents who noticed discoloured water were asked to run an outside tap until it ran clean, he said.

“In Palmerston North, discolouration is caused by small amounts of iron and manganese that build up in pipes over time. Changes in water flow, such as what happened during this repair, can disturb these minerals.”

On the other side of the city in Milson, resident Bev Smith said the water quality had been an on-and-off problem for years.

Last year, Smith said she she let the council know she had brown water coming from her taps, and it quickly sent someone over to clear out the nearby pipes.

However, this time around when Smith reached out, she said she had received no response.

“It was my grandson, actually, he was filling up the hand basin and he started yelling and saying, ‘look at this’.”

After letting the tap run for 30 minutes, Smith’s water looked clearer.

However, Smith said doing that was not good for water conservation.

The council’s website stated sometimes residents’ water may look discoloured or smell strong, but that it was temporary and not a health risk.

The website said chlorine reacted with iron and maganese built up in the pipes, causing brownish water.

It advised residents to run their outside cold tap for 20 minutes, and postpone doing laundry until the water runs clear, so it didn’t stain clothes.

To reduce the taste or smell of chlorine, it told residents to consider buying a drinking water filter or whole house filter.

It also suggested boiling water to reduce the chlorine odour.

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Companies must pay $200k after trucker’s death on private forestry road

Source: Radio New Zealand

Greg Stevens was killed in a truck crash in May 2023 on a private forestry road. WORKSAFE / SUPPLIED

Two companies have to pay almost $200,000 in fines and reparations after a forestry truck driver’s death almost three years ago.

Greg Stevens, 59, was killed when his fully loaded truck and trailer rolled on a treacherous bend on a private forestry road.

He was on his third trip when he crashed on 27 May 2023.

The road near Te Mata in Coromandel had no warning signs, road markers or berms – and a sharp corner outside recommended specifications, WorkSafe said.

The Thames District Court found the corner’s turning diameter was 7.5 metres less than the minimum standard for his truck.

Wet surfaces, mud-caked tyres, darkness and steepness made it worse.

Forest owner Specialty Timbers Limited and transport contractor Trevor Masters Limited have been sentenced in a reserved decision.

Specialty Timbers was fined $13,750 and told to pay consequential loss reparations of $26,628.87.

Trevor Masters Limited was ordered to pay a $12,500 fine and $4,629.32 for consequential loss reparations.

Together they must equally pay $140,000 in emotional harm reparations.

In a statement, WorkSafe said Judge Tompkins found each party assumed someone else was making sure the road was safe, which meant nobody took responsibility.

“No log load is worth a life, forestry operators must understand that managing forestry roads isn’t optional,” WorkSafe northern manager Brad Duggan said.

WorkSafe also highlighted comments from Stevens wife, Caroline Stevens, in her victim impact statement.

“Greg’s death was preventable, and if those companies had done what they should have done, my Greg would still be with me today,” she told the court.

“It is my hope that Greg’s death will serve as a reminder to prioritise safety in the workplace, so no other family has to endure this trauma,” she added.

“My plea is simple, let our loved ones come home from work safely.”

The managers of the forest, Forest360 Limited, separately entered into an enforceable undertaking, which was a binding agreement with WorkSafe.

It was for over $400,000 to be invested in a range of safety actions in response to Stevens’ death.

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Broadcasting Standards Authority to be scrapped

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Broadcasting Standards Authority may soon be abolished or changed with pending media regulation reforms. RNZ / Nik Dirga

The Broadcasting Standards Authority will be scrapped in favour of having the media self-regulate, Minister for Media and Communications Paul Goldsmith has confirmed.

More to come…

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New test covering ‘responsibilities and privileges’ of NZ citizenship announced for migrants

Source: Radio New Zealand

Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says the move will strengthen what it means to be a citizen of New Zealand. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Migrants applying for citizenship in New Zealand will have to pass a new multi-choice test under a government initiative to kick in late next year.

Applicants will be quizzed in person on the “responsibilities and privileges” of citizenship, covering topics like the Bill of Rights Act, voting rights and the structure of government.

They will need at least 75 percent of questions correct to pass.

Applicants currently only need to sign a form saying they understand these things. They must also meet other requirements regarding residency, good character and English skills.

Announcing the test, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden – who’s also an ACT MP – said the move would strengthen what it meant to be a citizen of New Zealand.

“People seeking citizenship should understand New Zealanders believe in certain rights, like freedom of speech, or that no one person or group is above the law.”

Other proposed question topics included human rights, certain criminal offences, democratic principles, and travel to and from New Zealand.

Van Velden said officials were developing the test to be in place by the second half of 2027 and would provide guidance and other resources in advance.

“Becoming a New Zealand citizen is a significant milestone in a person’s life and a great honour. This change reinforces the value of New Zealand citizenship, and what it means to obtain it.”

In a separate statement, ACT leader David Seymour claimed the announcement as a victory for his party.

“It’s not a new idea. Since 2016, I’ve argued new migrants should understand a simple proposition: in New Zealand, regardless of your gender, sexuality, ethnicity, or religion, you have the same legal rights as everybody else.

“Nearly a decade later, ACT has got it over the line.”

NZ First leader Winston Peters last year used his party’s conference to push for a “Kiwi values” pledge.

“Concerns are growing, as to some of the people who have come here who don’t salute our flag, don’t honour the values of our country, don’t respect the people living here,” Peters said.

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Heavy rain warnings issued for South Island’s west with more severe weather possible

Source: Radio New Zealand

MetService’s rain radar shows the South Island’s west under heavy downpours from 12pm Thursday. Screengrab / MetService

A front will bring heavy rain to parts of the South Island from later today with up to 400 millimetres predicted in some areas.

MetService has issued orange heavy rain warnings for Tasman District northwest of Motueka, Buller, Westland and Fiordland north of Doubtful Sound.

Up to 400 millimetres of rain could fall on the ranges in the Tasman District with peak rates of between 20 to 30 millimetres an hour.

Buller and Westland could also expect between 200 and 300mm of rain, with chances of thunderstorms.

MetService said the warnings meant streams and rivers might rise rapidly, and there could be surface flooding, slips and difficult driving conditions.

Heavy rain watches were also issued for the Richmond and Bryant ranges, Grey District, and the Canterbury and Otago headwaters.

There was a high change of Richmond and Bryant ranges upgrading to a warning, while a moderate chance for other areas.

MetService warned that more heavy rain and possible gales were expected to hit the South Island on Friday and Saturday due to the low pressure system.

It will bring a change to strong southwesterlies as we moved into the weekend, with large swells possible for western coastlines, MetService said.

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New youth mental health service to open in Northland

Source: Radio New Zealand

Matt Doocey. RNZ / Mark Papalii

Warning: this story discusses sensitive topics relating to mental health and suicide.

A new youth mental health respite service is set to open in Northland later this year in response to a damning coroner’s report into a youth suicide cluster.

Announcing the new service in Whangārei on Wednesday morning, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey said the new service would help de-escalate mental health crises, give young people support earlier and provide an alternative to hospital admission.

He said the government would also fund three extra youth suicide prevention coordinator roles across the mid and Far North.

Doocey said last year’s coroner’s report into the deaths of six young Northlanders – one of whom was just 12 years old – was “heartbreaking and damning”.

He said he disagreed with Health New Zealand’s initial response to the report, and it was clear too many young Northlanders were “falling through the cracks”.

“Losing a child is every parent’s worst nightmare,” he said.

The report, by Coroner Tania Tetitaha, found a multitude of barriers were stopping young people and their whānau accessing suicide prevention services in Northland.

They included the large number of different agencies involved in suicide prevention, which created difficulties with information sharing and confusion for families trying to navigate between them.

The result was that young people at risk were getting lost in the system.

Coroner Tetitaha also found funding for front-line youth suicide prevention was inadequate, and the region’s child and adolescent mental health service was overwhelmed by a massive workload.

Doocey said the new service and extra roles would create a “more connected and less fragmented system”, increase the workforce, and “help guide young people to right support at the right time”.

The aim was to have the new service in place in October, and certainly by the end of the year.

No decision had been made as yet where in Northland the new acute youth respite service would be based.

The total cost would be $1.7 million per year, which would come out of the existing mental health and addiction budget.

The suicide cluster at the centre of Coroner Tetitaha’s report occurred in 2018-20. The month-long inquest was held in November 2024 and her report was released in December last year.

At the time of the inquest, Te Roopu Kimiora, the region’s child and adolescent mental health service, was treating 700 young people with moderate to high risk of self-harm, and receiving three to four new patients a week.

Each of its clinicians had about 40 patients, which was “well above” the average caseload for New Zealand. That meant schools were increasingly carrying the burden of supporting rangatahi at risk of suicide, but they were not sufficiently funded to employ counsellors and social workers.

As a result, schools were having to dig into their operational budgets.

When the coroner’s report came out in December, Paula Mills – mother of Summer Metcalfe, who died aged 15 – told RNZ she hoped the recommendations would be acted on.

She said that would not bring any children back, but could help families desperately trying to get help for their children in future.

“It’s tragic, absolutely tragic, so if we can do anything to help these rangatahi and their whānau, let’s do it. The coroner’s made some really good recommendations, let’s get them implemented.”

Where to get help:

If it is an emergency and you feel like you or someone else is at risk, call 111.

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Middle East conflict: Warning over Kiwis’ ability to pay back debt

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ

Risks to financial stability have increased due to the Middle East conflict, with a bleaker outlook for the economy, potentially making it harder for borrowers to service debt.

In its half-yearly Financial Stability Report, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) stressed the country’s financial system remained resilient, and the banking system was well-placed to support customers even if conditions worsened.

The RBNZ said the longer the Iran war continued, the greater the risks to global financial stability, with New Zealand already feeling “significant economic effects”.

Governor Anna Breman said high diesel prices were having the biggest effect on the transport and logistics sectors, as well as primary industries, including forestry and fishing.

“While economic growth had been recovering prior to the conflict, we are now likely to see a somewhat slower recovery, affecting job growth and debt servicing,” Dr Breman said.

The RBNZ said banks had strong capital and funding buffers, meaning they were not only “well-placed” to help struggling customers, but also manage stresses in offshore funding markets.

It said stress testing results showed banks’ ability to withstand significant economic shocks, including geopolitical events like the Middle East conflict.

The RBNZ expected the impact on insurers to be limited, noting health insurers have raised premiums and adjusted policies following several years of high claims costs.

The RBNZ said it was working on a stress test of life and health insurers.

Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Fuel prices close to their highest levels in 50 years

Unsurprisingly, the RBNZ said higher oil prices will increase costs for firms, including those already facing weak demand.

“Prices for these important inputs are now close to their highest levels in the past 50 years after adjusting for inflation,” the RBNZ said in its report.

It warned that in addition to increased costs for firms, higher oil prices will reduce consumers’ spending power.

“Higher near-term CPI [consumer price index] inflation due to the conflict will reduce real wages,” the RBNZ said.

“While it seems unlikely at this stage that the impact on real wages will be as large as it was over 2021/22, even a small decline in spending power could create financial hardship for some households given the existing cost-of-living pressures.”

Meanwhile, low profitability in recent years meant firms were in a “more vulnerable position”.

“Business deposits were elevated after the pandemic, given fiscal support and the strong economic recovery,” it said.

“However, over the past three years, business deposits, particularly for smaller firms, have declined as a share of GDP [gross domestic product].”

The RBNZ said mortgage arrears have also declined from the recent peak as the economy improved, with non-performing loans at around 0.6 percent of lending.

However, it said arrears and non-performing loans remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.

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