Category: Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

• RBNZ governor says NZ is likely to see higher short-term inflation
• Rates could rise if there are effects on medium-term inflation or inflation expectations
• Economic growth likely to be dampened

The Reserve Bank governor is warning of higher inflation and weaker economic growth due to the Middle East crisis.

The Israel and United States-led war against Iran has sent global energy prices soaring due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Gulf.

Economists had already warned of the inflationary impact facing the New Zealand economy.

In speech notes published on Tuesday, Reserve Bank (RBNZ) governor Dr Anna Breman echoed that sentiment.

“We are likely to see higher headline inflation over the near term, and somewhat weaker growth momentum,” Breman said.

Annual inflation was at 3.1 percent in the December quarter, above the RBNZ’s 1-3 percent target band.

The remarks come two weeks ahead of the RBNZ’s next monetary policy decision, where the Official Cash Rate is expected to remain on hold.

“A short-lived disruption and a temporary increase in petrol prices can – and should – be looked through from a monetary policy perspective if it is unlikely to have an impact on medium-term inflation outcomes,” Breman said.

“For this type of disruption, we would likely see higher inflation over the next few quarters, along with squeezed real incomes and demand.”

She said the peak impact of monetary policy on inflation took about six to nine quarters.

“So, tightening monetary policy in response to a short-lived disruption would only dampen growth without materially improving near-term inflation outcomes,” Breman said.

“If there are effects on medium-term inflation or inflation expectations, the appropriate policy response could be to increase interest rates to prevent these second round effects.”

Breman said “it is critical” for monetary policy to be forward-looking and focused on medium-term inflation pressures.

She said global supply chains were feeling the effects of the conflict, and it “will take time for the full effects of this shock on the global economy to play out”.

“We should try to avoid reacting too early to near-term inflation pressures that monetary policy can do little about – or reacting too late if above-target inflation becomes embedded in the economy.”

High near-term inflation, weaker growth

Breman said the higher short-term inflation spike would primarily be driven by higher petrol and diesel prices, which made up about 4 percent of the Consumer Price Index.

Higher fertiliser prices were another factor, and she believed it could take up to nine months to fully pass through to supermarket prices.

“Autumn fertiliser requirements are already on-hand in New Zealand, and fertiliser imports usually decrease over the winter months,” Dr Breman said.

“We expect fertiliser use to pick up for spring planting, which is when we may see more direct impacts on farms.”

Breman said the conflict meant New Zealand’s economic growth momentum would be “somewhat weaker” than the RBNZ’s previous assessments.

The bank’s February Monetary Policy Statement published forecasts of GDP growth of 1.1 percent in the March quarter, and 0.5 percent in the June quarter.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

Air New Zealand says four return flights to Samoa for April and May have been cancelled because of rising fuel costs.

The cancellations are part of scheduled changes that the airline had announced at the start of this month.

Air New Zealand said it had nine services to Samoa each week and described the change as “minimal”.

It said like other airlines it was dealing with unprecedented volatility with jet fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and was adjusting schedules to manage the impact.

Air New Zealand earlier said that it would cancel around 1100 flights from early March through until early May, but that most passengers would be moved to flights on the same day.

‘We might need to be careful with that jet fuel’ as supplies reduce

Airlines are pleading for assurance from the government, as the supply of jet fuel could be limited due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Board of Airline Representatives chief executive Cath O’Brien told Morning Report that New Zealand is a known as a “fuel risk destination”.

New Zealand had a history of experiencing issues with jet fuel allocation, she said.

“We saw that in 2017. We had the pipeline rupture. We saw it in 2022 and 2023 when we had insufficient jet fuel imported into the country.”

She was concerned that there had been no information, as suppliers could give 12 hours notice of rationing but airlines could not respond in the same way as usual because if there was limited jet fuel in New Zealand, the same would apply elsewhere.

“If we knew how a scarce resource of jet fuel might be managed, then we would be able to say how airlines might respond and whether that jet fuel is allocated more or less to long haul, or short haul, or freighters, or licensed flights, or regional services.

“At the moment, we’re kind of operating in this dearth of information.”

However, O’Brien said airlines were comfortable that there was currently a sufficient fuel supply, and could continue their usual operations.

“If we get to a point, as we have in the past in New Zealand, where jet fuel is 10 days away from arriving and we have a limited amount to get us through, then we might need to be careful with that jet fuel that we have as we wait for the next shipment.

“I think that’s increasingly likely as an outcome of the conflict up in the Middle East … so we need to know how we will manage that delay.”

Meanwhile, regional airlines are warning key air links are under growing pressure due to the rising fuel prices and operating costs.

Originair is poised to scrap its Wellington to Westport route, while Air Chathams has introduced a $20 fuel surcharge per ticket.

Barrier Air chief executive Grant Bacon said fuel price rises so far equated to about $15 extra per person on an average Wellington to Tākaka Golden Bay Air flight.

Reuters reports that jet fuel prices have soared from US$85-90 per barrel to US$150-200 per barrel in recent days leading to a number of airlines including Air New Zealand increasing fuel surcharges.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand