New Zealand relies increasingly on migrants to pay our tax: Is that a problem?

Source: Radio New Zealand

A paper written by a Treasury principal adviser has found that people born elsewhere are becoming increasingly important for the country’s tax base. RNZ

People who were born overseas and migrated to New Zealand are paying an increasing share of the country’s tax, a new paper shows.

The paper, published by Treasury to support its long-term fiscal statement, but not necessarily reflecting the view of Treasury overall, was written by principal adviser Tim Hughes.

It finds that, in aggregate, people born elsewhere are becoming increasingly important for the country’s tax base.

“Foreign-born people made up 24 percent of the population in 2000, also paying 24 percent of individual tax on market income,” Hughes noted.

“Since then, the foreign-born’s share of the population has grown, and their share of tax paid has grown even faster. In the tax year ending March 2024, the foreign-born made up 32 percent of the population, and paid 38 percent of the tax.”

He said that was partly due to the fact that they tended to be younger than the population born in New Zealand.

“However, age composition alone does not explain all the difference, and there is also substantial variation in the amount of tax paid by different migrants.”

He said it showed the growing importance of migration policy settings for the country’s fiscal sustainability.

Treasury has been warning about the increasing pressure that an ageing population will put on the tax system, through higher health and pension costs.

Murat Ungor, a senior lecturer in the Otago University department of economics, said the paper followed on from Hughes’ earlier work that showed up to 30 percent of people born in New Zealand were living overseas by the time they were 30.

He said it had been identified that New Zealand had a productivity problem, and relying on migration to help fill tax gaps created vulnerabilities.

“Treasury research highlights a key tension. New Zealand invests heavily in human capital, yet a significant share of that investment leaves the country through emigration.

“Previous Treasury research shows that New Zealand loses approximately $4 billion in public investment in human capital each year through emigration, with 25 percent to 30 percent of each birth cohort living overseas by age 30. That is a substantial drain on the taxpayer investment that raised those New Zealanders.”

He said the issue was not immigration itself but structural reliance on it.

“When fiscal sustainability depends on a steady inflow of skilled migrants, the country becomes exposed to global competition for talent, policy volatility, and domestic pressures on housing and infrastructure.”

Migration would remain part of the solution, particularly in addressing short-term labour shortages, he said.

“However, relying on population growth as the default economic lever is inherently risky. So, is it a problem that New Zealand increasingly depends on inward migration to support its tax base?

“Yes, not because migration is undesirable, but because over-reliance on any single lever creates vulnerability.

“The larger challenge is to build a more productive and resilient economy. That means prioritising long-term productivity growth, with automation and innovation at its core.”

Another option would be to pursue productivity advances through automation, he said.

“If New Zealand accelerates the adoption of artificial intelligence, robotics, and process automation across sectors such as agriculture, logistics, finance, and public services, it can increase output per capita without needing rapid population expansion. A sustained lift in productivity would materially strengthen the country’s fiscal position. Automation is one pathway to achieving this.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Start-up asked for regulation changes to allow controversial marine carbon storage

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ

An international start-up has been pushing for regulation changes to allow it to carry out controversial marine carbon storage in New Zealand waters.

The company, Gigablue, says its technology could be game-changing for the climate, with the potential to store ‘gigatons’ of carbon in the deep ocean and create local jobs.

Its latest trial off the Otago coast is underway right now.

But experts in marine science and law are urging New Zealand to proceed with caution, saying that type of technology is hard to prove, hard to measure, and, at worst, unsafe for the environment.

The company says it needs to be able to carry out ocean research to build its evidence base – but wants to be able to generate carbon credits, in order to fund its work.

It says commercial viability is essential but for now it is prioritising the generation of scientific evidence.

Documents released to RNZ under the Official Information Act show that in meetings with the Ministry for the Environment last year, Gigablue proposed changes to marine regulations that would allow it to go ahead without consents.

The company was assisted in its lobbying by former climate change minister James Shaw, who told RNZ the climate crisis was bad “and we should explore all scientific options that might help us to stop it getting even worse”.

Privately, though, officials appeared frustrated as their questions about gaps in the research and evidence base, and how these would be filled, went unanswered for months.

That frustration was shared by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which turned down two applications from the company to carry out research within New Zealand’s exclusive economic zone in late 2025.

It had previously allowed two much smaller sea trials to go ahead.

In documents provided to RNZ, the EPA concluded that Gigablue’s plans to deploy 1000 tonnes of its proprietary particles into the ocean amounted to dumping, which is illegal under domestic and international law.

The agency was also concerned about the environmental effects, and not convinced that the company’s plans amounted to scientific research – for which an exemption can be granted.

However, earlier this year it agreed to “a significantly modified activity”, which began in March and will finish later this week.

Co-founded by four Israeli entrepreneurs, Gigablue says its ‘microalgae carbon fixation and sinking’ (MCFS) technology stimulates a natural cycle where tiny organisms in the water, called phytoplankton, absorb carbon dioxide from the surface ocean through photosynthesis.

When these microalgae die, some sink – taking the carbon into the deep ocean, where slow-moving currents mean it can stay stored for decades, centuries or longer.

In turn, this allows the surface ocean to suck more climate change-inducing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Phytoplankton are at the beginning of the marine food chain and need light and nutrients to grow. Dick (@willapalens), CC BY-NC-SA 2.0, via Flickr

It is one type of marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), a growing field of research that proponents say could help to limit or even reverse global warming.

The company said its technology had undergone comprehensive scientific review, and was “measurable, scalable, and environmentally responsible”.

It intends to sell carbon credits for the extra carbon it manages to store, and has already signed an agreement with aviation services provider SkiesFifty to sequester 200,000 tonnes of CO2 by 2029.

However, marine and climate scientists and maritime law experts who spoke to RNZ expressed similar concerns to those voiced by officials.

They said that, based on publicly-available documents, the technology was indistinguishable from ocean fertilisation, a type of carbon removal that involves encouraging algal blooms and is currently commercially prohibited under international protocols.

Gigablue said its technology was neither ocean fertilisation nor marine dumping, and that it had the backing of local scientists.

It claims it can “responsibly scale its technology toward gigaton-level impact”.

But experts said that even if the company could legally go ahead, proving that any marine carbon removal technology actually worked was fraught with difficulty.

They also pressed the need for updated regulations, but said efforts should be focused on allowing genuine research, not commercialisation.

“In theory, it can sequester carbon,” University of Tasmania marine biologist Lennart Bach said. “We have lots of model studies that can show that.”

The difficulty was proving it.

“Whenever I hear gigaton, I’d be very careful.

“I think it needs to be shown [for] one tonne, 1000 tonnes, 10,000 tonnes. And if you show a million tonnes is reasonably feasible, then maybe you can start talking about a gigaton.”

Current regulations a ‘hindrance’

Gigablue first began operating in New Zealand in 2024, when the EPA gave it permission to conduct two small-scale ocean trials to test how its particles would drift and then sink.

It chartered a vessel from crown research institute NIWA (now part of Earth Sciences New Zealand) to carry out the second trial and also contracted the institute to review its methodology.

However, by 2025 it was looking for a more permissive way to conduct its activities, with an eye to selling carbon credits to businesses wanting to offset their emissions – known as the voluntary carbon market.

As well as the contract with SkiesFifty, it recently raised US$20 million (NZ$35m) in venture capital.

ESNZ (formerly NIWA) vessel Kaharoa II was used in Gigablue’s second trial, in October 2024. Supplied / NIWA

The company first met with senior MfE officials, including the ministry’s chief of staff, in early March 2025.

In a follow-up letter, Gigablue co-founder and chief technology officer Sapir Markus-Alford said the current regulations were “a hindrance” to marine carbon removal, because it was so new that it was not recognised in New Zealand’s system.

The company’s suggestion was to make it a new type of ‘permitted activity’ under EEZ regulations, meaning Gigablue’s activities would not need a consent. Further regulatory changes could follow in future.

But officials had identified a problem.

What Gigablue was proposing sounded extremely similar to ocean fertilisation, in which iron (and sometimes other nutrients) is added to areas where it’s scarce – including large parts of the Southern Ocean – to encourage more phytoplankton to grow.

Other than for “legitimate scientific research”, ocean fertilisation is prohibited under international law, via a 2013 amendment to the London Protocol, the main international agreement governing marine dumping.

In 2023, a protocol meeting agreed that ocean fertilisation “has the potential to cause deleterious effects that are widespread, long-lasting or severe”, such as harmful algal blooms and affecting marine food chains.

New Zealand has not ratified the amendment, but agreed to it, and is a member of the protocol. Under domestic EEZ laws, marine geoengineering and marine dumping are also not allowed.

“However, marine scientific research is considered a permitted activity,” one official noted. “The EPA has allowed Gigablue to undertake research in line with these requirements.”

Gigablue says there are crucial differences between its methodology, and ocean fertilisation, and gave RNZ a document prepared by Tonkin + Taylor outlining the distinctions.

Instead of adding iron directly to the ocean, it is ’embedded’ in small particles designed to accumulate the microalgae as it grows – therefore containing and controlling that growth.

The substrate is then meant to sink quickly to the ocean floor before the algae can decay or be eaten.

Gigablue says this method will store much more carbon than just encouraging free-floating phytoplankton blooms.

University of Canterbury law professor Karen Scott, who specialises in marine law, said the description was “clearly ocean fertilisation” under the protocol.

The ban remained non-binding, Scott said. “But it is arguably persuasive in terms of how states should respond to it.”

University of Canterbury marine law professor Karen Scott University of Canterbury

Efficacy evidence ‘top of the list’ – ministry request

In May 2025, MfE officials and Gigablue met for a two-day series of in-person meetings, with Gigablue executives flying in from overseas, joined online by James Shaw and Gigablue’s advisors for Māori engagement.

Personal notes taken by one adviser were punctuated with sceptical remarks about some of the science and environmental claims the company made: “questionable”, “skimmed over” – even “lol”.

Following the meeting, the company provided a summary of the scientific methodology review from ESNZ, along with some studies the company had commissioned from the Nelson-based Cawthron Institute.

After reviewing the documents, the same adviser emailed colleagues with a long list of gaps and assumptions she had identified, for both the environmental effects and for how much carbon would be stored, for how long.

ESNZ had found that the methodology was “scientifically sound and consistent with current scientific understanding of marine carbon dioxide removals”, but stated it had not considered the regulatory framework, environmental thresholds, or the operational scalability, she said.

The Cawthron studies on environmental safety noted “low statistical power” and that the trends should be “interpreted with caution”, she wrote.

Notes from a May meeting with Gigablue show some ministry officials were still sceptical of the company’s claims. RNZ / Kate Newton

There were other ocean-based mCDR start-ups operating overseas, using various different technologies, but they provided “much more public documentation of their methodology and research”, she said.

Not all her colleagues were so sceptical. In emails debriefing the meetings, one senior adviser said she found Gigablue “very inspiring”.

“It’s a cool idea and I found myself very persuaded.”

More emails and phone calls followed, with officials pressing the need each time for further information about existing and planned research.

In early July, a senior official emailed Markus-Alford a page-long list of what the ministry wanted, including high-priority items that officials felt were “unsighted to peer review”.

“The efficacy evidence is top of the list for us,” the official said.

In mid-September, the adviser who had reviewed the initial documents asked her manager if Gigablue had provided “any of the information we requested a few months ago”.

No, he replied. “At this stage until they share anything with us I don’t think we need to be doing anything.”

EPA turned down larger trial

At the same time that Gigablue was engaging with ministry officials, it was also seeking permission from the EPA to go ahead with a much larger trial offshore from Otago, starting in late 2025.

Marine scientific research can go ahead without a consent, but the agency still has to assess whether it meets the criteria for a “permitted activity”.

In Gigablue’s pre-activity notice filed in February 2025, it said the volumes of particles it had used in its two previous field trials – a few tonnes each – had been too small to track into the deep ocean.

This time, it wanted to release up to 1000 tonnes of particles, in five lots.

Modelling showed that by the time the particles made it to the seafloor, they would be “a scant, scattered presence” and were not expected to smother any sea life, the application said.

“Adverse effects on seabirds, fish, zooplankton and marine mammals are also unlikely.”

The authority asked for further information, including a more detailed environmental impact assessment.

The company finally provided a draft summary assessment in late September, but the authority was unmoved.

In a formal notification, the EPA’s compliance manager said the company’s plans – including a second trial it filed details of in August – could not proceed as permitted activities, because the disposal of particles fell within the definition of dumping.

The authority was also concerned the environmental effects were underestimated, and not satisfied that the proposal fell within the definition of marine scientific research.

“That was not the response we were hoping for,” a Gigablue executive wrote back. The planned research would have to stop, “with a significant cost”.

EPA told RNZ its discussions with Gigablue were “ongoing” and the company submitted a “significantly modified activity” in January this year.

That activity was given permission to go ahead, “strictly in accordance with the description provided and that all mitigation measures are fully implemented and adhered to”.

Instead of the 1000 tonnes it proposed releasing last year, the smaller trial involved just 55kg of substrate, contained within ‘pens’ that would drift up to 180km before being collected.

No change – for now

Although it has only so far applied to carry out research, the MfE documents make it clear that Gigablue wanted to start verifying carbon credits.

An early discussion between officials shows some uncertainty about how to define the company’s activities: “Are they still classified as research or have they shifted to commercial?”

In July, Markus-Alford shared its legal advice with officials “to help us understand the legal state of using the data from a scientific experiment activity for the registration of credits”.

In an interview with RNZ, she said all of Gigablue’s planned activities were still research, but it was “essential” to get carbon credits verified to fund voyages, equipment and expertise.

“These are all research activities that need to still be somehow paid [for].”

It was up to New Zealand to decide how to classify that.

“Our conversations with the New Zealand government is to figure out what the regulator in New Zealand will think is most appropriate, and we will follow it.”

Senior marine scientist James Kerry has been following Gigablue’s progress for several years and believes the company should be focusing on smaller-scale, contained trials. Supplied / James Cook University

James Kerry, a senior marine scientist at European NGO OceanCare and adjunct research fellow at Australia’s James Cook University, said there were plenty of much smaller-scale lab or tank-based studies the company should be doing to demonstrate the basics of its approach before it moved to any kind of open ocean trials.

“It’s certainly possible to begin to gain confidence in your claims or in your expectations without going to what was proposed in one of the requests for a permitted activity, which was to deposit a thousand tons of particles in the ocean.”

An MfE spokesperson told RNZ there was no current work happening to change EEZ legislation or to develop a regime for marine carbon dioxide removal.

There had been communication with Gigablue since October over a proposed visit, and the company had provided some further information, which the ministry was reviewing.

The ministry did not have a position on the efficacy or environmental safety of Gigablue’s technology, nor whether it met the definition of either marine geoengineering or ocean fertilisation, a spokesperson said.

Despite the delayed voyages, the benefit for Gigablue of operating in New Zealand – apart from access to the Southern Ocean – was one of perception.

“We actually came to New Zealand because of its strict environmental approach,” Markus-Alford told RNZ.

Gigablue’s website and public material still lean heavily on the involvement of New Zealand agencies.

The website features photos of the ESNZ vessel at sea during the 2024 voyages, and chief oceans scientist Mike Williams – who declined an interview with RNZ – appears in a promotional video.

A sub-heading says Gigablue’s activities are “Permitted by the EPA”.

Gigablue told officials there were added benefits to New Zealand, too, “including job creation, infrastructure investment, and enhanced global positioning”.

James Shaw told RNZ he saw a clear benefit from allowing Gigablue to continue its activities here.

“If the science proves out … then New Zealand will be well-positioned to take an early lead on removing CO2 from the atmosphere in the ocean as well as on land,” he said.

Why New Zealand?

New Zealand was not the only country that Gigablue was interested in operating in, Markus-Akford told RNZ.

“There are countries out there that promote and even have in place already regulatory frameworks to be able to host those activities and to act as leaders in this space.”

However, the company had found “amazing partners” in New Zealand.

“We found here really a treasure of people and communities that we are really enjoying working with.”

Gigablue CTO and co-founder Sapir Markus-Alford says the company was attracted to New Zealand because of its “strict environmental approach”. Supplied / Gigablue

Among them is Cherie Tirikatene (Ngāi Tahu), the Rekohu/Chatham Islands general manager for Māori-led carbon farming organisation Tāmata Hauhā.

Now also Gigablue’s strategic and iwi engagement manager, she got involved when the company sought help consulting with iwi.

What the company wanted to do was “super exciting”, but it was their open and early engagement that won her over.

“I’ve attached my whakapapa to this because I do believe in it and I believe in their authenticity.”

There were huge opportunities from allowing the company to operate in New Zealand, including local jobs and research opportunities for young people, she said.

However, that could all be lost “if this gets too hard”.

“If we were to lose this off our shores and they go to another country to operate, I would be gutted.”

Tirikatene believed the technology was “a game-changer”.

“What we’re proving now is the scale.”

Robust research and monitoring essential – experts

Late last year, in collaboration with the carbon removals monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) company, Puro.Earth, Gigablue published a 170-page methodology for microalgae carbon fixation and sinking.

That would require field-based measurements at each stage of every deployment, Markus-Alford told RNZ.

“The measurement of this technology is based on ground-truth data, not on modelling.”

Helene Muri, a senior scientist at Norwegian climate and environmental research institute NILU, co-authored a European report late last year into MRV for marine carbon dioxide removal.

“We concluded that no mCDR method today has a sufficiently robust, comprehensive MRV system to support safe, large-scale deployment or crediting,” she said.

“We are still in the knowledge-building phase, not in a stage where large volumes of credits from marine interventions can be considered high-confidence climate solutions.”

Gigablue’s contract to deliver 200,000 carbon credits by 2029 was therefore “very ambitious and, from a scientific standpoint, most likely premature”, Muri said.

Norwegian climate scientist Helene Muri says there is no mature system to monitor, report and verify any kind of marine carbon dioxide removal yet. Stig Larssæther/NTNU, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The ESNZ scientific review and the Puro.Earth methodology were both important steps, but not sufficient on their own, Muri said.

“They are not a substitute for public, peer-engageable evidence, independent third-party verification, and regulatory judgment on environmental acceptability and legal consistency.”

Gigablue has not yet published any research, though it provided RNZ with the same one-page summary of the ESNZ review that was supplied to MfE, together with the unpublished study from the Cawthron Institute.

It also supplied a full version of the environmental impact assessment it gave to the EPA in draft form, which said the adverse environmental effects were “expected to be low to negligible”.

Last month, it presented at the Ocean Sciences Meeting, the flagship conference for ocean sciences, and Markus-Alford said it had a research paper going through the review process.

She said the company agreed with the need for published research – which is why Gigablue wanted to scale up its activities in New Zealand.

“We are really eager to create those evidence-based results, to be in the ocean, and to prove to anyone … that our activity is safe.”

James Kerry said the collaboration with institutions like ESNZ was positive, but the underlying research and reports had not been made available.

“That makes it difficult for the wider scientific community to assess what was actually evaluated, under what conditions, and how far the conclusions can really be taken,” he said

From what he could see, the research so far had been limited to small-scale field trials and a small set of “relatively limited” lab studies, he said.

“Each of these can provide useful insights, but none of them individually or collectively are anywhere near sufficient to demonstrate that the approach works as intended or is environmentally safe.”

What next?

Markus-Alford said for now, the company was able to proceed with its immediate research plans under the current EEZ regulations.

It still wanted to verify carbon credits, but the timeline for that was “a matter of the developments with the regulations”.

Karen Scott said New Zealand should allow mCDR research to take place in its waters, but it should do it in line with the London Protocol.

That provided “quite a robust international framework” for assessing which research activities could go ahead, which New Zealand should follow.

“That’s not to say that you need to ban it altogether, because there is potential within this,” she said.

“But … we’re a very long way from the stage where you could convincingly deploy it.”

University of Tasmania marine scientist Lennart Bach Supplied / Lennart Bach

Helene Muri said New Zealand and other states should take a “staged and precautionary approach” to any mCDR projects, and resist rapid commercialisation.

Lennart Bach said governments should “constructively regulate” marine carbon dioxide removal.

He believed there was a place for start-ups to be involved, because they were more inclined to test boundaries.

“Working in the space myself academically … we don’t necessarily overthink it, but we also are hesitant to make the next steps,” he said.

The risk was that an “unhinged” start-up could move too fast. “The intent is good. [It’s] the regulation that is missing.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Update: Search for Antoine Richard

Source: New Zealand Police

Please attribute to Detective Phill Hamlin:

The search for missing 21-year-old French national Antoine Richard is continuing, after he was reported missing in Cromwell last weekend.

Antoine was last seen around 11:45pm on Saturday 21 March at the Victoria Arms Hotel.

Further appeal for sightings or information

Police are appealing to residents in Cromwell to check their properties if they have not done so already, as well as review any CCTV footage from Saturday 21 March 11.45pm onwards.

If you have relevant footage, register your camera system with Community Cam to help with our search for Antoine.

We’re also wanting to hear from anybody who may have seen anyone matching Antoine’s description either hitchhiking or walking in Cromwell in the early hours of Sunday 22 March.

Large number of search teams assisting

Searches have been conducted by a large and dedicated team of LandSAR members from throughout the Otago and Southland area, Police, Coastguard and many members of the community.

We remain dedicated and focused on locating Antoine.

The Police National Dive Squad will also assist efforts by searching areas of Lake Dunstan.

Search teams located a grey rubber Croc branded sandal from the shore of Lake Dunstan and would like to speak to anyone who may have seen somebody wearing the pictured footwear, or if anyone locates a sandal like the one pictured.

Police would like to thank the Cromwell community for their unwavering support and assistance.

Anyone who has seen Antoine, or has information regarding his whereabouts, is urged to contact Police via 105, either over the phone or online at police.govt.nz/use-105 and selecting “Update Report”.

Please reference file number 260324/5771.

Statement on behalf of Antoine’s family

We are the family of Antoine Richard, who has been missing since Saturday, March 21st. That day, after playing a rugby match with the Cromwell rugby team, he went to the Victoria Arms Hotel at 11:30 PM, the last identified location before his disappearance.

The venue’s cameras show him leaving around midnight. He was wearing a black T-shirt, light denim shorts, and Crocs.

We have had no news from him since.

An enormous amount of work has already been carried out by the Police, the Search and Rescue team, Carrick winery where he worked, his friends, the Cromwell Rugby Team, local residents, and everyone who has taken part in the search. We are infinitely grateful to them.

You may have already been involved in the search efforts, but we still need your help:

  • If you find a Croc shoe matching the photo attached, please contact the Police.
  • If you or someone you know owns a property in Cromwell, please check your surroundings, gardens, and outbuildings.
  • If you have a security camera, please review the footage from after 11:30pm on March 22nd 2026.
  • If you or someone you know saw or gave a lift to anyone matching Antoine’s description in the early  hours of March 22nd, please contact the police.

We have been devastated with worry since we heard the news. We are writing on behalf of his entire family, his friends, his colleagues in France and New Zealand, and all the people he loves, in the hope of finding him as soon as possible.

Thank you so very much in advance.

Hervé, Marithé, Claudine, Elise, Noémie, Valentin and Corentin.

Note to media: the family will not be providing any further comment and ask that their privacy be respected.

ENDS

Issued by Police Media Centre

Christchurch council staff back away from mayor’s proposal to pump sewage into sea

Source: Radio New Zealand

Pegasus Bay. Supplied / Todd Group

Christchurch City Council staff are backing away from a controversial plan to pump millions of litres of sewage out to sea as councillors prepare to vote on proposals it is hoped will take pressure off the city’s struggling treatment plant.

A plan put forward by the mayor to send partially treated sewage out to sea which prompted concern and condemnation has not been recommended by council staff.

Instead, staff backed a plan to increase aeration in the oxidation ponds, which would be more cost effective, less ecologically damaging, had mana whenua support and was easier to build and operate than the plan the mayor mooted.

Putrid stench plagues city

Residents in the city’s east have been plagued by the stench since a blaze destroyed parts of the Bromley wastewater treatment plant in 2021.

Diggers working at the burnt-out Bromley wastewater treatment plant to remove rot from inside its filters on 10 June, 2022. Christchurch City Council

Complaints began to surge in October, with the regional council receiving more than 7600 reports from the east and city centre over summer.

The city council said heavy rain reducing oxygen and algae in the ponds worsened the smell.

In late February, the regional council issued an abatement notice to the city council requiring it to provide a comprehensive plan to comply with its resource consent or face prosecution.

Days later, mayor Phil Mauger proposed pumping around a third of the city’s sewage – between 45 to 55 million litres a day – into Pegasus Bay via the existing outfall pipe.

Mayor Phil Mauger RNZ/ Anna Sargant

At the time, the regional council’s director of operations Brett Aldridge said the council was “surprised and concerned” by the comments.

On Tuesday, Aldridge said he was confident the council had now provided all the information required.

The regional council would do “a little bit of due diligence” and have its experts look at the council’s plans, Aldridge said.

“We will leave it to the city engineers to really get into the nitty gritty of what that design is and how it will be implemented.”

Aldridge confirmed the council’s two recommended options were not included in the response to the abatement notice.

The council had signalled longer term options were under development with a wastewater specialist, but did not set out specific options or proposed pathways, he said.

Bromley’s fire-damaged wastewater treatment plant was discussed at a public meeting with residents in Christchurch on 5 April, 2024. RNZ / Anna Sargent

Two recommended options

In its report to councillors, council staff offered six options but said only two were viable and cost effective – increasing aeration to the ponds, or increasing aeration and diverting some partially treated wastewater around the ponds and out to sea.

Staff warned neither option addressed odours caused by excessive sewage loads or chemicals, equipment failures, those caused by extreme rain events or by things other than biological oxygen demand (BOD) – a measure of how much oxygen was needed to break down sewage into CO2 and sludge.

High BOD levels in the plant’s ponds were just one reason for the stench, but were the most significant cause, according to the report.

Increasing electrical supply to power the additional aerators could take four months, and staff proposed using diesel generators in the interim.

Staff costed the recommendations between $7.7 million and $11.2m to add differing levels of aeration, or between $12.2m and $16.6m to add aeration and then divert 400 litres a second of partially treated sewage to sea, either as needed (18 to 60 days a year) or year-round.

The most expensive option, to divert almost 2000 litres a second of partially treated sewage to sea for 243 days a year would cost $18.3m, had a very high risk of failure, and would take five months to implement.

Staff noted the partially treated wastewater would include BOD, enterococci, TSS (total suspended solids) and chlorine which could have effects on the ocean and public health, but that there had not been time to assess the ecological and health impacts.

If councillors backed aeration, the only resource consent needed would be for the temporary diesel generators.

If they chose one of the diversion options, they would need a new consent, which would be processed with priority and under the new wastewater regulations that came into effect in December, Aldridge said.

Two abatement notices in less than a month

Residents around the Christchurch Wastewater Treatment Plant’s oxidation ponds have been complaining of the stench coming from the plant. Christchurch City Council

In March, the regional council issued another notice over a series of illegal sewage discharges into Whakaraupō Lyttelton and Akaroa harbours.

The breaches prompted Banks Peninsula hapū Ngati Wheke to consider legal action over the failures and lack of communication from the council.

Ecologist Dr Mike Joy said discharging sewage to the ocean, rivers and estuaries was “Victorian”.

“We should be way past this kind of attitude that it’s all right just to dump the waste.”

Terms such as “treated wastewater” needed clearer definitions, he said.

“.. the word treatment can mean anything from just taking the lumps out to completely taking it back to drinking water.”

Assurances about the safety of chlorine did not relate to environmental impact.

“They mean safe in that the chlorine will kill bacteria that are harmful to humans – that doesn’t mean it’s safe for the environment or safe for the ecology of the near shore environments.”

Sewage discharge caused an influx of nutrients which drove algal blooms and potentially cyanobacteria blooms, resulting in “dead zones where the water becomes deoxygenated, and no life in any form can survive without oxygen”.

The idea the sheer quantity of water would disperse sewage was outdated, Joy said.

“This is this old saying when there were a hell of a lot less people on the planet that the solution to pollution is dilution, but it’s not that at all – the solution to pollution is assimilation.”

Nor did he think the council’s altered proposal was much of an improvement.

“It’s just another ambulance at the bottom of the cliff thing. To treat this discharge properly we need to create an industrial-type wetland where you grow flax and raupō and you harvest and compost it.”

Ecologist Dr Mike Joy. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Concern over new national wastewater rules

The proposal underscored the increased nutrients and pathogens that could be discharged under the new wastewater standards, Joy said.

“It was a completely backward step, and I think the city council’s trying to take advantage of the weakening of national regulations to allow more stuff to be dumped into the ocean.”

Joy disputed claims the standards would improve performance.

“The only performance that will improve might be the economic bottom line for these councils because they’ll be able to get away with dumping more of the stuff without treating it. It’s quite clear analysis … that much more of these contaminants will be allowed under this new legislation.”

Some bypass events could go on for weeks or months and could go completely unnoticed.

“The actual wastewater treatment plants in many cases are OK, but the infrastructure that feeds into it is old and worn out and has illegal connections so when you get a heavy rainfall event you get a massive increase and they don’t have anywhere to store it.”

Sewerage infrastructure would come under more strain as climate change caused more extreme weather events, he said.

“It’s a massive and growing problem in New Zealand and it’s just another one of these [issues] of lack of spending on infrastructure that’s now coming back to bite us.”

Upgrades urgently needed

Taumata Arowai criticised what it called “[https://www.taumataarowai.govt.nz/home/articles/wastewater-standards-separating-myth-from-fact

misconceptions]” about the rules.

Taumata Arowai’s Sara McFall. Supplied / Taumata Arowai

Spokesperson Sara McFall said more than 20 percent of the country’s wastewater plants were operating on expired consents and around half of underground wastewater networks were rated as in poor or very poor condition, so it was important to make the urgently needed upgrades affordable.

The council’s wastewater treatment plant operations manager Adam Twose presented to the Waitai Coastal-Burwood-Linwood community board in mid-March, and was clear the council was only able to consider the diversion plan because the regulations were “significantly more relaxed” than current consent conditions.

“Under the new wastewater standards, there’s the option to go a lot looser, so you’re allowed to discharge more contaminants to the environment,” he told the meeting.

He told the board there was a “high level” risk of the stench increasing if the council did not act, as well as risks to the plant itself, which had been operating “at maximum capacity and minimum redundancy” since the fire.

More oversight, more support

City councillor Yani Johanson. RNZ / Nate McKinnon

City councillor Yani Johanson said it was obvious the plan to put partially treated wastewater into the outfall pipe was not realistic.

“There are too many risks around it, too much concern around environmental impact, too many unknowns.”

He was frustrated aeration had not been suggested earlier.

“Many of us around the council table have asked for options to address what was going on and what was causing it for years. I welcome the idea that we can do more, but it’s frustrating it’s taken this long to get to that point.”

Johanson wanted better council oversight of the activated sludge plant project, due to be completed in 2028.

“While there’s some things being done, there’s no clear plan that the community can look at to hold us accountable for mitigating the impact on their health and well-being.”

He also wanted staff to prepare a plan to reduce the impact on the community.

This could include free GP visits, a register of vulnerable residents or distributing air purifiers, he said.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

‘Shouldn’t come as a surprise’: No extensions to incorporated societies deadline, minister says

Source: Radio New Zealand

Consumer Affairs Minister Scott Simpson. RNZ / Mark Papalii

Consumer Affairs Minister Scott Simpson says there will be no extension for the more than 3000 clubs, charities and other groups to re-register as Incorporated Societies by Easter Sunday.

Incorporated societies – including clubs, charities, unions and political parties – will be dissolved if they fail to submit a new constitution to the Companies Office by 5 April.

Moran Law special counsel Louisa Joblin specialises in not-for-profit law and has been working with incorporated societies to manage the change for years.

She said any who missed the deadline would see “an impact from day one”.

“These clubs and organisations and things – our whole not-for-profit sector – is a core part of what keeps our society trucking, really,” she said.

“We’ve heard from banks that they are basically turning off access for societies that have been removed.

“It’s those really practical things like not being able to access bank accounts, not being able to pay accounts, not being able to pay staff, not being able to pay rent – those things will immediately interfere with a society’s ability to do business.”

Societies that were dissolved could also lose their name, and would lose the ability to contract. Charities could also face being removed from the Charities Register, although that was a longer process and they might have time to negotiate.

Figures provided by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment showed as of Monday – with just five days remaining – 3302 incorporated societies were yet to re-register, about 15.5 percent of the more than 21,000 total.

Tracking of the trend suggested about 12 percent would still be non-compliant by the 5 April deadline.

Simpson told RNZ that was a success.

“To have about 85 percent of those entities having re-registered, I think it’s a pretty good effort,” he said. “I think that is a success.”

Based on a survey by Charities Services, he said about 430 intended to stop operating and about 640 planned to change to a different structure.

A further estimated 750 did not have a plan, and 750 more intended to re-register but were unlikely to be able to do so by the deadline.

Simpson said there would be no extensions.

“Easter Sunday will be with us in literally a few days time, in about five days. So no, I’m keen that we push on with it.

“We needed to put a deadline in place so it would act as a motivating factor … this is not a new or a sudden requirement, they’ve had the best part of three and a half years to get underway, it shouldn’t come as a surprise.”

Joblin said after the “horrifying” stats at the beginning of March showing about 8000 were yet to re-register, 3300 was reassuring but “still a really large number”.

Moran Law special counsel Louisa Joblin specialises in not-for-profit law. Supplied / Moran Law

She said dissolved societies that owned land or buildings they wanted to retain could place “quite a bit of demand on the courts to help navigate that”.

There was a backup option of applying to have the society restored on the register if they missed the deadline, but they must pay over $200 for the privilege – and still complete the process of submitting a constitution that complied with the new law.

Simpson said it was fairly straightforward.

“It’s the same process that would have occurred had they done it before the 5th of April. It just means that for the period between the 5th of April and whenever they finally do re-register, they will have lost the benefits of incorporation.”

Joblin said the Companies Office had only communicated restoration would be an option in the past couple of weeks, but it was a “simpler, smoother” process than had been expected.

“Hopefully that will mean that for those that meant to continue operating, and they just haven’t been able to do it in time, there will be a relatively straightforward process.”

But some of the groups – which were typically volunteer-run – had found the process of writing a new constitution legally technical and difficult.

Simpson advised anyone facing dissolution to contact the Companies Office, which had information on what to do and been contacting incorporated societies to encourage re-registration.

She hoped the Office would provide more resources to explain the process, and said any incorporated societies likely to miss the deadline and unable to afford legal advice should access Community Law for help.

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The resurrection of the Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme is back on the table, after industry players formed a private planning group. Flickr / Shellie Evans

The same government that scrapped the Lake Onslow pumped hydro project has put it on the fast-track list. But whether this country can pull off a project of its size is another question.

It was hyped as the answer to the country’s energy anxiety – a giant “battery” in the deep south that could keep the lights on when the lakes run dry.

But when the coalition government was voted in, the project was voted out, deemed too big and too expensive.

Now, the Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme is back – or at least, back in the conversation – thanks to a private consortium group, and somewhat ironically, the government has agreed to refer the scheme for possible fast-tracking.

“There’s a view that the fast-track system makes it a lot easier to consent to a lot of different things, but this is a really big project,” says Newsroom senior political reporter Marc Daalder, who has been covering the story.

“It’s hard to overstate how significant this would be, both in terms of its broader energy system and national economic impact, but also just in terms of the actual size of the thing they are proposing to build.

“And that’s the real question, right? People often say it’s hard to build things in New Zealand. Well, this is a really big thing. Can we build it?

“Recent history would suggest no, not without significant cost overruns and significant regulatory difficulty. The government likes to think that they have tackled those issues. I guess we will find out.”

Today, The Detail looks into the pumped hydro scheme concept, which is deceptively simple: pump water uphill when electricity is plentiful, then release it when it’s scarce, with energy stored at a scale never seen before in New Zealand.

Supporters say it’s exactly what’s needed to tackle the country’s biggest vulnerability – the dreaded “dry year”, when hydro lakes drop, gas runs tight, and coal-fired generation has to ramp up.

The Labour government liked the idea, but when they looked into it, the bill was around $16 billion, with years, likely more than a decade, before anything tangible would be delivered.

So in 2023, not long after being elected, the coalition government pulled the pin.

“The theory was, at the time, that the opposition to Onslow was that it was creating too much uncertainty in the market because it would have a really significant effect on the electricity market,” Daalder says.

“It would basically be buying a lot of power when power prices are low, in order to charge up the battery as it were, in order to pump that water up the hill, and then when power prices were high, it could be used to depress those because you could flick it on, like with the flick of a switch, and generate power.

“So it would bring up the low prices, but cap off the high prices; it would have quite a significant effect on the markets. There were concerns that people weren’t investing in new generation, as a result of that.”

But it turns out the project wasn’t dead in the water, with industry players circling and forming a private planning group. The Clutha Pumped Hydro Consortium includes former Meridian Energy chief executive and Transpower chairperson Keith Turner, former environment minister David Parker, Christchurch lawyer John Hardie, and Reserve Bank board chair Rodger Finlay.

Turner told RNZ’s Morning Report that they estimated their build would cost around $8-10b, and if successful, it could be up and running by 2035. International investors had already shown interest in the project, he said.

And now their plan is being considered for fast-track consenting that could, in theory, bulldoze through years of red tape – thanks to the same government that axed the scheme.

“I asked the Energy Minister, Simon Watts, who has spoken before about the chilling impact that the Lake Onslow project had on the electricity market, whether he was worried about it having a chilling effect,” Daalder says.

“He said ‘no’ but he said it is different because this is the private market, rather than the government making its decisions.

“I don’t know if that logic fully holds. We know that private players in the energy market can have significant impacts on investment decisions, so, for example, we often hear how the uncertainty over whether Tiwai Point would stay or go for five years – between 2019 and 2024 – meant that people weren’t investing in new generation because they thought if the smelter was going to close there would be all this power available.

“It’s hard to see why you would get a different result or a significantly different result, depending on who is actually funding it.”

Lake Onslow Shellie Evans 2014/Wikipedia

In limbo

So, where does this leave Lake Onslow? Right now, it’s in limbo. Not quite dead, not quite alive, but very much in the realm of unfinished business with fast-track in its sights.

It was hyped as the answer to the country’s energy anxiety – a giant “battery” in the deep south that could keep the lights on when the lakes run dry.

But when the coalition government was voted in, the project was voted out, deemed too big and too expensive.

Now, the Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme is back – or at least, back in the conversation – thanks to a private consortium group, and somewhat ironically, the government has agreed to refer the scheme for possible fast-tracking.

“There’s a view that the fast-track system makes it a lot easier to consent to a lot of different things, but this is a really big project,” says Newsroom senior political reporter Marc Daalder, who has been covering the story.

“It’s hard to overstate how significant this would be, both in terms of its broader energy system and national economic impact, but also just in terms of the actual size of the thing they are proposing to build.

“And that’s the real question, right? People often say it’s hard to build things in New Zealand. Well, this is a really big thing. Can we build it?

“Recent history would suggest no, not without significant cost overruns and significant regulatory difficulty. The government likes to think that they have tackled those issues. I guess we will find out.”

‘Too much uncertainty’

Today, The Detail looks into the pumped hydro scheme concept, which is deceptively simple: pump water uphill when electricity is plentiful, then release it when it’s scarce, with energy stored at a scale never seen before in New Zealand.

Supporters say it’s exactly what’s needed to tackle the country’s biggest vulnerability – the dreaded “dry year”, when hydro lakes drop, gas runs tight, and coal-fired generation has to ramp up.

The Labour government liked the idea, but when they looked into it, the bill was around $16 billion, with years, likely more than a decade, before anything tangible would be delivered.

So in 2023, not long after being elected, the coalition government pulled the pin.

“The theory was, at the time, that the opposition to Onslow was that it was creating too much uncertainty in the market because it would have a really significant effect on the electricity market,” Daalder says.

“It would basically be buying a lot of power when power prices are low, in order to charge up the battery as it were, in order to pump that water up the hill, and then when power prices were high, it could be used to depress those because you could flick it on, like with the flick of a switch, and generate power.

“So it would bring up the low prices, but cap off the high prices; it would have quite a significant effect on the markets. There were concerns that people weren’t investing in new generation, as a result of that.”

David Parker RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly

But it turns out the project wasn’t dead in the water, with industry players circling and forming a private planning group. The Clutha Pumped Hydro Consortium includes former Meridian Energy chief executive and Transpower chairperson Keith Turner, former environment minister David Parker, Christchurch lawyer John Hardie, and Reserve Bank board chair Rodger Finlay.

Turner told RNZ’s Morning Report that they estimated their build would cost around $8-10b, and if successful, it could be up and running by 2035. International investors had already shown interest in the project, he said.

And now their plan is being considered for fast-track consenting that could, in theory, bulldoze through years of red tape – thanks to the same government that axed the scheme.

“I asked the energy minister, Simon Watts, who has spoken before about the chilling impact that the Lake Onslow project had on the electricity market, whether he was worried about it having a chilling effect,” Daalder says.

“He said ‘no’ but he said it is different because this is the private market, rather than the government making its decisions.

“I don’t know if that logic fully holds. We know that private players in the energy market can have significant impacts on investment decisions, so, for example, we often hear how the uncertainty over whether Tiwai Point would stay or go for five years – between 2019 and 2024 – meant that people weren’t investing in new generation because they thought if the smelter was going to close there would be all this power available.

“It’s hard to see why you would get a different result or a significantly different result, depending on who is actually funding it.”

So, where does this leave Lake Onslow? Right now, it’s in limbo. Not quite dead, not quite alive, but very much in the realm of unfinished business with fast-track in its sights.

Check out how to listen to and follow The Detail here.

You can also stay up-to-date by liking us on Facebook or following us on Twitter.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

David Tamihere’s double-murder convictions quashed: What happens now and could he get compensation?

Source: Radio New Zealand

David Tamihere pictured outside court in 2018. (File photo) RNZ

David Tamihere’s convictions have been quashed, 36 years after he was found guilty of murdering two Swedish backpackers, but what happens next and could he get compensation from the government?

In a decision released on Tuesday, the Supreme Court directed a retrial but said it was up to the Crown to decide whether one should be held.

The court found there was a fundamental error in Tamihere’s 1990 trial which made it unfair – and the Crown case had changed so “radically” since then that it had not actually been tested by a jury.

Swedish tourists Urban Höglin and Heidi Paakkonen were killed in the Coromandel in 1989. (File photo) Supplied

Tamihere was convicted of the murder of Urban Höglin, 23, and Heidi Paakkonen, 21, in 1990. The couple was last seen in Thames in April 1989 and Höglin’s body was found in 1991. Paakkonen’s body has never been found.

If the Crown decided not to pursue a retrial for Tamihere, who was now in his 70s, he would be eligible to apply for compensation for wrongful imprisonment.

The decision on whether to hold a retrial rested with Auckland Crown solicitor Alysha McClintock.

She said told RNZ on Tuesday that there was now a process to follow.

“It will consider many factors, focussed on what available and admissible evidence remains to meet the Solicitor-General’s prosecution guidelines test and – if there is sufficient evidence – where the public interest now lies,” she said.

According to the Ministry of Justice, a person would be eligible for compensation if their convictions had been quashed and criminal proceedings had finished and they had been imprisoned for all or part of a sentence for that conviction.

Payment of compensation was at the discretion of the government and Cabinet had to be satisfied a person was innocent on the balance of probabilities along with suffering losses that could be compensated and compensation being in the interests of justice.

Tamihere spent 20 years in prison, so if he was eligible for compensation, he could receive an annual amount of $150,000 for each year in prison, an annual amount of up to $100,000 for loss of income for each year, an additional $75,000 a year for time on restrictive bail or parole, up to $50,000 to re-adjust to living in the community, an amount for costs incurred when challenging conviction and an amount for large financial losses between $50,000 and $250,000.

This could mean upwards of $3 million in Tamihere’s case.

The government could also decide to make a public apology or statement of innocence, the Ministry of Justice website said.

If an application for compensation was made, Minister of Justice Paul Goldsmith would decide whether the application would be further assessed.

That assessment would focus on whether the person was innocent on the balance of probabilities, whether it was in the interests of justice to pay compensation and how much should be paid.

The minister could also seek independent legal advice on any aspect the application.

Tamihere’s case would be called in the High Court at Auckland on 13 May.

The Crown Law Office said it was likely a decision would have been reached by then but the court date would be pushed back if it had not.

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Parents do have a favourite child, according to research

Source: Radio New Zealand

No matter how many times parents protest that they don’t have a favourite child, research shows that preferential treatment does happen – even in adulthood.

For 25 years, US‑based sociologist J. Jill Suitor and her team have examined responses from hundreds of mothers who have two or more adult children. She says there’s strong evidence favouritism exists – and that the favourite child usually stays the same over decades.

But Suitor notes that children are often wrong about their parents’ preferences.

Researchers looked into how factors like birth order, gender and temperament influence favouritism. (file image)

Unsplash / Curated Lifestyle

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Marine carbon dioxide removal is a big idea – with big hurdles

Source: Radio New Zealand

Using microalgae to ‘fix’ carbon is one type of marine carbon dioxide removal. RNZ

Explainer – A start-up company wants to carry out marine carbon dioxide removal in New Zealand waters. What is mCDR and why is it controversial?

Earlier this month, a boat chartered by the company Gigablue headed out to sea from Port Chalmers in Dunedin to an area of deep ocean off the Otago coast called the Bounty Trough.

The plan – according to a notice it filed with the Environmental Protection Authority in February – was to lower five circular ‘containment pens’ into the water, grouped around a central ring so the whole thing looked like a five-petalled flower.

The pens would float on the surface, with fine mesh nets hanging under them to contain 55kg of the company’s particles – small balls of cellulose embedded with iron and manganese.

For three weeks, they would drift in the ocean, with water samples taken every so often before the pens and particles were retrieved and taken back to land.

It was a vastly scaled-back version of a trial the company initially wanted to carry out last year, where up to 1000 tonnes of particles would have been put in the water and allowed to sink into the ocean.

Gigablue is one of a number of start-ups and research groups working in the growing field of marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR).

There are a range of different mCDR methods that have been proposed, but all of them have the same aim – to draw carbon dioxide out of our rapidly warming atmosphere and store it in the deep ocean.

If mCDR can be proven to work at scale, then it could be a vital tool to help cool the planet.

What Gigablue is doing has drawn particular attention, because its approach resembles a controversial type of mCDR called ocean fertilisation.

Gigablue says there are crucial differences that separate its approach from ocean fertilisation.

But experts RNZ spoke to say, regardless of definitions, all mCDR techniques are in their infancy, and their effectiveness and safety are yet to be proven.

Some say it’s also a big distraction from what the world should really be focusing on: cutting the emissions we produce in the first place.

What is ocean fertilisation?

University of Tasmania marine scientist Lennart Bach says all mCDR is “relatively nascent”, gaining traction in the last decade or so.

“There are start-ups that work in this space and the [academic] research is also really kicking off.”

There are a range of different mCDR methods – Bach’s own research focuses on an approach called ocean alkalinity enhancement.

Ocean fertilisation is another major area of investigation, with experiments dating back 20 years or more.

The premise of both ocean fertilisation and Gigablue’s approach, which it calls microalgae carbon sinking and fixation, is based on a natural cycle that already occurs in the ocean where phytoplankton (a type of microalgae) grow and die.

Phytoplankton need light and nutrients to grow.

Just like trees, phytoplankton capture carbon dioxide as they grow, through photosynthesis. Most plankton are eaten, but some fall to the deep ocean as ‘marine snow’ when they die, taking the carbon with them.

Because deep, cold ocean currents take a long time to circulate, the carbon can theoretically stay there for decades, centuries or even millennia before it resurfaces.

As well as light, phytoplankton need nutrients, including iron.

But there are places in the ocean where iron is scarce – including large parts of the Southern Ocean.

Research has shown that if iron is added to the water in these areas, it can trigger phytoplankton growth. More algae equals a greater mass of marine snow, equals more carbon sinking into the deep ocean, and – eventually – less in the atmosphere as the surface ocean absorbs carbon dioxide to replace what’s been sunk.

Does it work – and is it safe?

In theory, ocean fertilisation can sequester extra carbon, Bach says. “We have lots of model studies that can show that.”

In reality, each step in the sequence is exceptionally tricky to measure and prove in reality, he says.

“The problem is that the biology is so complex, there’s so many pathways in which things can go wrong or things can happen unexpectedly.”

Ocean fertilisation takes place in an ‘open system’ – in this case, an unbounded ocean.

James Kerry, a senior marine scientist at European NGO OceanCare and adjunct research fellow at Australia’s James Cook University, says that increases the complexity of observing and measuring any effects – good and bad.

“The ocean is a very dynamic, chaotic system,” he says.

“It is very, very difficult, and we see this with marine CDR in general, to predict how a particle or a substance that you add to the ocean will actually behave.”

OceanCare senior marine scientist and James Cook University adjunct researcher James Kerry Supplied / James Cook University

To show that ocean fertilisation works, three main things have to be measured: efficacy, additionality, and permanence.

Efficacy requires proof that however you choose to encourage phytoplankton growth actually works – whether it’s on a particle or free-floating blooms in the ocean.

Additionality involves showing that more phytoplankton are growing, and storing more carbon, than if you hadn’t done anything.

Something called ‘nutrient robbing’ is a particular problem here. Adding iron, without adding the other nutrients the plankton need, can ‘rob’ those nutrients from another part of the ocean where plankton might have otherwise bloomed naturally, turning the whole premise into a zero-sum game.

There could be large geographical or time differences involved – making it hard to know what may or may not have otherwise happened.

Permanence is being able to show that the carbon absorbed by the phytoplankton is actually stored, and stays stored.

Many things can interrupt this process – including the fact that phytoplankton are at the beginning of marine food chains. If they’re eaten or decompose in shallower waters, then most of the carbon they’ve absorbed will be rapidly recycled back to the surface ocean and atmosphere.

Even for the small proportion of plankton that sink to the deep ocean, long-term sequestration is not guaranteed. In general, the deeper the plankton sink, the longer the carbon is stored, but research has found that even at depths of 1000 metres most of the carbon returns to the surface within decades.

In the meantime, ocean fertilisation also comes with risks.

There’s potential for creating harmful algal blooms, reducing oxygen in deep ocean ecosystems, and affecting marine food chains.

Algal blooms occur when there are large amounts of nutrients available in surface waters. RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly

Helene Muri, a senior scientist at Norwegian climate and environmental research institute NILU, says “much better monitoring” is needed for every single stage of ocean fertilisation and other forms of mCDR.

“Research is still needed on several core questions before specific methods could be considered safe and effective at scale,” she says.

It was hard to distinguish between the effect of something done deliberately and what might have happened naturally anyway, “especially given sparse observations offshore and at depth”.

“Tracking where that carbon goes in the ocean interior, and whether it later resurfaces, is also really challenging.”

What does the law say?

For all these reasons, ocean fertilisation – and marine geoengineering in general – has become a focus for international laws governing the ocean.

New Zealand is among members of something called the London Protocol, which governs marine dumping.

In 2008, London Protocol members agreed that ocean fertilisation is covered by the protocol, and that it should be restricted to “legitimate scientific research”. In 2013 they agreed to an amendment that would heavily regulate all marine geoengineering, with ocean fertilisation the first to be added to a list of techniques.

New Zealand has not ratified the amendment, which remains non-binding, but international convention means New Zealand is expected to still act in line with what it has agreed to.

At home, New Zealand’s own laws governing the exclusive economic zone prohibit dumping, and ‘placement of matter’ unless there are specific exclusions.

That includes marine scientific research – which is why Gigablue has been able to carry out some limited ocean trials to date.

However, the larger trials it wanted to do were found to constitute marine dumping by the EPA, which also had concerns about the environmental effects.

As reported by RNZ, Gigablue was last year seeking changes to regulations that would create an exclusion for marine carbon dioxide removal.

What about companies wanting to commercialise?

The London Protocol amendment says that any ocean fertilisation activities should be designed to answer questions that add to scientific knowledge.

“There should not be any financial and/or economic gain arising from the experiment,” it states.

This creates problems for any company wanting to get carbon credits issued and verified, if its technology fits within the definition of ocean fertilisation.

James Kerry says he believes that is why Gigablue – which already has a contract to deliver 200,000 carbon credits by 2029 – is keen to distinguish its technology as something else.

“The distinction determines which international rules and safeguards apply to the activity that GigaBlue is proposing to undertake.”

Gigablue, for its part, has said it needs to be able to verify credits in order to fund the research that will provide the evidence base for its technology.

Gigablue has completed three trials in New Zealand waters, including some where particles were released into the water. The most recent trial required them to be contained within ‘pens’. RNZ

Helene Muri says the practice of pre-selling credits for carbon removals is relatively common – especially for proven forms of carbon sequestration like forest planting. However, credits should not be issued before the method is proven, she says.

“If payment helps fund development, but credits are only issued after verified delivery, that can be defensible.”

She, and others RNZ spoke to, support New Zealand ratifying the London Protocol amendment and using its assessment framework to decide which activities can go ahead.

“Fund and permit responsible, open and transparent research to build evidence,” Muri says.

“But resist policies that enable rapid commercialisation until ecological risks are actually bounded and safeguarded, international law compliance is demonstrated, and [monitoring, reporting and verification] is robust.”

Where else is this happening?

Marine carbon dioxide removal research is happening in many other locations, including the US, Canada and Australia, which are considering the same challenges as New Zealand.

A Canadian senate report published last month recommended its government should “create a regulatory framework that enables innovation and balances risks with opportunities”.

However, the report was focused almost entirely on a different type of mCDR that is limited to harbours and rivers, rather than open ocean systems.

James Kerry says the ongoing lack of global regulation has allowed a “broader pattern” of activity to develop, where mCDR approaches are hyped before there’s robust evidence that they work or can be scaled up.

He raises the example of Running Tide, an ocean fertilisation start-up that attracted blue-chip investment from the lies of Microsoft before it closed down in 2024.

“Running Tide dumped around 19,000 tons of matter in Icelandic waters in total in 2023 under a research permit,” he says.

“It’s also worth noting that after Running Tide went bust in 2024, they did not clean up the material they had dumped in the ocean.”

Without careful regulation there was a “real risk” that commercial mCDR activity would move ahead of the science and safety, he says.

He also believes novel tech like marine carbon dioxide removal risks distracting from or delaying actual emissions reductions.

“”You always begin with the narrative, ‘Climate change bad,’ which is true. ‘We need to address the problem,’ which is true.

“And then the third part which comes is, ‘Here’s our solution, which is the one that’s going to work.’ And that’s where I object.”

However, he says that – based on documents released to RNZ – New Zealand agencies have so far “largely” handled the situation appropriately.

Late last year, Earth Sciences New Zealand was awarded an $11 million Endeavour Fund grant to carry out its own research into marine carbon dioxide removal, including ocean fertilisation.

Notably, its research will not actually deploy any mCDR technology, “so avoiding technological, environmental and social-licence barriers”.

Instead, it plans to use naturally-occurring algal blooms to test advanced models and new marine carbon tracking technologies, among other things.

The agency declined an interview about this work for this story.

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Kaitaia residents say town will be devastated if big employer Juken timber mills shuts gates

Source: Radio New Zealand

Juken New Zealand’s Northland Mill, on Whangatane Drive on the northern fringe of Kaitāia. Peter de Graaf

Long-time Kaitaia residents say the Far North town would be devastated if its big employer timber mills shut their gates.

Two mills belonging to Japanese-owned Juken New Zealand are facing uncertain futures, with the company looking to sell up.

It said it was because of a combination of ongoing structural and market pressures affecting operations, including declining demand in key export markets.

It also singled out higher operating costs.

Juken New Zealand said it had been working over several years to improve the finances of its two Kaitaia sites but had not been able to make them sustainable.

Kaitaia has about 6000 people and the two mills employ more than 200 people.

Resident and former editor of the Northland Age newspaper Peter Jackson said nobody saw the development coming.

“There would be massive unemployment, there would be shop closures, there would be all sorts of financial fallout,” he said if closures happened.

“I’d hate to think what the outcome would be but it would be a blow to the heart of Kaitaia, it really would.”

JNL’s engineered wood Triboard product made in Kaitaia is used in residential and commercial buildings Supplied / Juken New Zealand Ltd

Jackson said there was not a lot of other work on offer in the town, and no other employer like Juken New Zealand.

“I can remember when Juken came into the picture and people were praying, literally, that they would buy it,” he said.

“This is part of Kaitaia’s big dream, we were always sold on the idea that forestry was going to be our future … and the fact that a processing plant was built in Kaitaia was regarded as a massive win for this community … and you just sort of think it will always be there.”

Jackson said an old months-long workers’ strike brought the town to a standstill.

“No-one paid their bills, there was no money going around, it was a nightmare.”

The strike was something former publican Dave Collard, who had a tavern nearby, remembered well.

His premises was used for strike meetings.

‘Critical’ for town

Collard said he had served “many, many” Juken timber workers over the years.

“It’s absolutely critical in terms of the town here,” he said.

“We have enough challenges up here as it is without one of our biggest employers potentially closing down, I would hate to see something like that, there’s [got] to be an alternative somewhere, or a remedy.

“You know what is real scary about this is we’re seeing it all over New Zealand, look at the places that have closed up – the frozen veggies people, sawmills, all sorts where people work for years and years and years, it is very much a reality and if we’re not thinking about it I think we’ve got our heads buried in the sand.”

There has been a raft of other mill closures around the country, with many owners blaming high energy costs.

The Far North District Council and Northland Regional Council were set to appeal for the government to intervene in Kaitaia.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. RNZ / Mark Papalii

“Seriously, we’re going to think about it big time,” New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said at Parliament.

“Because it’s not the first time we have done that, both Shane Jones and myself, we’ve kept close to that timber mill for a long long time in our political career,” he said.

“So we’re going to pay attention to it … it is a concern and we’ll look seriously at it.”

Juken New Zealand said it was looking at whether the two mills could keep operating “under a different structure” which included a sale or a joint venture.

“We are taking the mills to market to assess whether there is interest from potential buyers,” it said.

“Our focus is on testing whether there is a viable pathway that would allow the mills to continue operating and to preserve employment where possible.”

The company said in the meantime operations were continuing as normal at its Kaitaia mills with no immediate changes.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand