Raisina: The Taiwan Strait Issue

Source: Radio New Zealand

By Graeme Acton, Asia Media Centre

This week’s 11th Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi decided to take the Taiwan Strait issue seriously. GREG BAKER/AFP

If China decides to attack Taiwan, what exactly does the rest of the world do? Graeme Acton is at the 2026 Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi.

It’s the kind of question that diplomatic forums sometimes avoid. However, this week’s 11th Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi decided to take the Taiwan Strait issue seriously, first session, second day.

A panel of five experts took the stage, and warned that the scope of simultaneous conflicts across the globe is widening in ways that stress-test the architecture of deterrence and diplomacy – with much of that stress seemingly by design.

Washington’s policy of strategic ambiguity – deliberately leaving unclear whether it would militarily defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack – has long provided a kind of managed uncertainty that has kept Beijing cautious.

But the “might is right” ethos of American power under the current administration, combined with its scepticism toward long-standing commitments and international norms, has eroded the credibility that US ambiguity once traded upon.

Simultaneously, Beijing has grown more, not less, vehement in its insistence on what it calls “reunification”.

Experts at Raisina 2026 argued that the ongoing conflict in Iran is no longer a regional affair but one that is “bleeding together” with security concerns across the Indo-Pacific. Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of ORF America, pointed to the expanding reach of Iranian missile and drone capabilities – including strikes on a British military base in Cyprus – as evidence of this widening arc of instability.

Indian commentators are obviously also concerned about the sinking of an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka just a few days ago. The ship had just been on exercises with the Indian navy, and PM Modi has been roundly criticised in Indian media for his silence to date on the issue.

The risk, Raisina panellists argued, is that Beijing sees American engagement in Iran Asia as a window of opportunity. Bonnie Glick of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies pushed back on that assessment, maintaining that Washington remains perfectly capable of dealing with multiple crises simultaneously and that its messaging on Taiwan stays firm. “I think China views bottom line American intervention in Iran right now as a moment for consideration of Taiwan,” she told the audience, but she also felt China has this moment to consider the consequences of dealing with a US administration quite happy to let loose the dogs of war under circumstances it regards as appropriate.

Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies offered a more cautious European perspective. While acknowledging that Beijing might exploit other conflicts for “rhetorical ammunition,” she noted that this does not necessarily legitimise direct military action against Taiwan – partly because Beijing still wishes to present itself as a responsible global power.

But her assessment of Europe’s practical capacity to respond to a Taiwan crisis was sobering. If the war in Ukraine is still ongoing and Europe is managing that conflict largely alone, she said, it would be unlikely that EU member states could assemble the right military assets quickly enough for a standoff in the South China Sea.

Ms Legarda cut to the chase on what makes the Taiwan question so difficult: the world’s potential democratic responders are already stretched. Japan has adopted the firmest posture among US treaty allies, bolstered by a new defence pact with the Philippines.

But what Australia, New Zealand or South Korea would actually do in the event of a crisis -not rhetorically, but operationally – remains cloudy. All three nations have trade and economic ties with China that hugely complicate the situation.

From Taipei itself, I-Chung Lai of the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation offered his reading of China’s military readiness: China simply does not yet possess the capability to carry out a successful invasion of Taiwan.

Crossing the Taiwan Strait is one of the most complex military operations imaginable. You need to move tens of thousands of troops, armoured vehicles, and supplies across 150-200 km of open water, under fire, and then storm heavily defended beaches. But as Dhruva Jaishankar pointed out , China has been involved in extensive military exercises in the South China Sea, as much a signal to Taiwan as a process of military preparedness.

Some analysts suggest the Chinese Army (the PLA) just doesn’t have the resources necessary at present. Add to this the fact that Taiwan has just signed off on the largest defence budget in its history – roughly $US40 billion to be spent from 2026 to 2033 – focused on asymmetric warfare capabilities including munitions designed to cripple amphibious landing forces at long range

I-Chung Lai also mentioned the concept of “Pax Silica.”, the peace maintained by the understanding that global chip makers would be devastated if Taiwan’s giant semiconductor factories went down. The disruption to supply chains – from cars to laptops to AI infrastructure would be massive on all sides of the conflict. In 2025 the US moved to set up a network of “trusted chip suppliers” – India joined that group last month.

But despite the chip issue, Beijing’s signals around Taiwan remain clear, and the recent invasion of Ukraine shows that sometimes nations will act against their economic interests while chasing their strategic objectives.

What Raisina 2026 made clear is that the comfortable old framework – American strategic ambiguity underpinning a reasonably stable cross-strait status quo – is fraying. The burden of deterrence is being redistributed across a coalition whose cohesion, resolve, and actual capacity vary enormously.

For New Zealand’s part, the three AUKUS founding members (US, UK, Australia) have themselves said they are “not yet in a position to consider expanding to additional partners” – meaning New Zealand hasn’t been formally offered a military “Pillar Two” membership.

But New Zealand’s recent Defence Capability Plan, released nearly a year ago, proposes investments in long-range drones, satellite surveillance, data integration, and counter-drone technologies that closely mirror the priorities seen in AUKUS.

New Zealand also maintains its own ambiguity on the Taiwan question -arguably edging closer to the alliance without triggering Beijing’s red lines –or the New Zealand public’s nuclear-free sensitivities and marked hesitancy about fighting other people’s wars.

The question is not simply whether anyone will come to Taiwan’s defence. It is whether the network of interests, alliances, economic interdependencies, and democratic solidarity that constitutes the current world order can commit and act quickly enough, and firmly enough, to make Beijing reconsider an assault on the island.

-Asia Media Centre

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Can psychopaths change?

Source: Radio New Zealand

Psychopaths might account for only about 1 percent of the general population, but they account for a disproportionate share of violent crime.

Distinct from other conditions like sociopathy and antisocial personality disorder, psychopaths tend to show traits such as an absence of remorse or guilt, a lack of empathy and a charming and manipulative interpersonal style.

You may find it hard to imagine how someone without much empathy can change. And early psychological treatments were not successful. But advances in research are showing that a deeper understanding of psychopathy may help to create more effective interventions.

To help psychopaths change, we first need to understand them.

Unsplash

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

World-leading neurobiologist: Science means it’s not okay for me to hate Donald Trump

Source: Radio New Zealand

In his latest book, Determined, Robert Sapolsky argues that we are not, in fact, masters of our own destiny. Everything we think and do is beyond our control and caused by a combination of biology and environment.

The Stanford University professor was just 14 when one “very revelatory night”, he realised that humans have no free will at all.

“Suddenly, I woke up at two in the morning and said, ‘Ah, I get it. There’s no free will. And there’s no God. And there’s no purpose in the universe whatsoever.’ It all just evaporated right then and hasn’t been back since.”

This video is hosted on Youtube.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Acid rain falls on Vanuatu islands as volcano belches ash

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Manaro Voui volcano is spewing ash and smoke as high as four kilometres above sea level. The alert level remains at three on a scale of five and a 3km danger zone has been declared around the crater. 24 February 2026 Supplied/Sergei Kriukov – Unity Airlines

The Vanuatu government has decided not to order a mass evacuation of communities on Ambae island affected by acid rain from the Manaro Voui volcano.

On Friday the Council of Ministers (cabinet) endorsed the recommendations of the National Disaster Committee for a plan of action.

This included approving a budget of 20 million vatu (US$170,000) for a team from the National Disaster Management Office to go to Ambae on Saturday.

Once there they will assess the most affected parts of the island and have them declared disaster zones.

Climate change minister Ralph Regenvanu said there is no mandatory evacuation at this stage but people in the worst affected areas are encouraged to move to less affected parts of the island if they do not feel safe.

“Even though on Ambae we are hearing the activity of the volcano is changing, sometimes it is increasing and sometimes it is going down, it is still only at alert level three,” Regenvanu said speaking in Bislama.

Regenvanu said plans are in place should the volcanic activity increase even further.

“The council has also approved that if we go to alert level four, which is the worst case scenario, and will require the whole island to be declared a disaster zone and for us to start evacuations, an emergency plan is already in place.”

Acid rain impacts

Acid rain from the volcano on Ambae – 310km north west of the capital of Port Vila – is reportedly effecting water and food supplies.

Authorities say the volcano is spewing toxic burning ash which is now covering the entire island due to wind changes.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazard department (VMGD) says acid rain has now reached Santo, Malakula, Pentecost and Ambrym islands.

Its director, Levu Antfalo described its effects.

“It burns, right because it contains sulphuric oxide, it rains down and becomes acid rain. It burns their crops, pretty much anything that it gets in contact with, water as well. Usually those who use wells, drums, tanks that are not covered could be affected, but bore hold water seems to be okay,” he said.

Antfalo said the heavy ash fall also alters the PH levels in water, making it more acidic.

“I mean it burns their protein source, like vegetables.. We were told as well it increases the PH of water as well as prawns and fish that are there (in rivers).”

Vanuatu’s cabinet is convening an emergency meeting Friday to discuss the escalating situation on Ambae Island following increased volcanic activity at the Manaro volcano. Facebook / Ministry of the Prime Minister – Vanuatu

Edwin Tarai and his family were evacuated after Ambae erupted in 2018, and have never returned.

The 74-year-old, who lives in Santo, said people on Ambae were complaining about government inaction.

“There is no plan of moving out at the moment but there is a concern. People are complaining and wondering what is the government’s next move,” Tarai said.

The former nurse practitioner said that the noise is increasing and can be heard in east Santo, Pentecost and Ambrym islands.

Nixon Garae, a tug boat captain in Luganville, Santo has relatives in East Ambae, who described the noise.

“They said the noise is very loud because when people are talking you can’t hear the other person talking. It is causing ear pain because it’s very loud and heavy,” he said.

“Last Saturday when they were in church, when the preacher stood up at the front, they could hardly hear him because the noise was too loud.”

Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department

Active shield volcano

A volcano duty officer with New Zealand’s GNS Science, Yannick Behr said Ambae is a typical shield volcano and a very active one at that.

“It’s part of a chain of volcanoes in Vanuatu, they’re sitting on a rifting zone that is caused by the eastward subduction of the Australian plate. That tectonic process keeps that volcanism alive so all volcanoes on this rifting zone, they erupt quite regularly,” Beer said.

The latest plumes are about four kilometres above sea level, he said.

“It can twice as high, but again these are explosive eruptions but because of the consistency of the magma they tend to be not quite as catastrophic as you can see them (sic) from other types of volcanoes,” Beer said.

The geohazards department has issued a reminder to Ambae residents to stay out of the danger zone.

This comes after an aviation warning was issued on Thursday for volcanic ash cover over the island.

In a public address overnight director Levu Antfalo warned residents to take precautions.

“Just a reminder that the danger zone is a three kilometres radius around the crater. So do not go close to it,” Antfalo said.

“Things to take care of include water, protect your water supply. It will also affect food gardens. And also those with respiratory illnesses…this can affect the health of families that live close to or in the surrounding areas of Ambae,” he said.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

The Oscars are coming up and it’s anyone’s game

Source: Radio New Zealand

With the Academy Awards right around the corner, it’s difficult to find another year when the race was this wide open, this late in the game.

The Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and Actor (formerly SAG) Awards are now firmly in the rearview mirror, and while some elements have come into sharper focus – it’s Hamnet star Jessie Buckley’s best actress Oscar to lose, for instance – many other aspects of the race remain foggy to predict at best, like who might walk away with the best actor trophy opposite her.

And that’s not to mention the seemingly wide-open fields in both supporting actor races.

Irish actress Jessie Buckley accepts the award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture for Hamnet.

VALERIE MACON

Amanda Seyfried’s ‘prosthetic butthole’ isn’t a joke

Source: Radio New Zealand

In The Testament of Ann Lee, a musical drama about the Shaker sect, Amanda Seyfried wears what she calls a “prosthetic butthole” as she is stripped and beaten in front of a burning church.

“This movie needed to be graphic, so I wore a prosthetic butthole. […] It was cool. It was exciting. I was pregnant and naked, but I wasn’t naked at all. And at the end of the movie, I was standing in front of a burning building with just a merkin. I felt so free”, she told BBC Radio 2:

On the surface, Seyfried’s comments might seem like a case of TMI. But costume performs an important, invisible technical function of a quasi-body the actor inhabits to transform into their character.

This video is hosted on Youtube.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Israel, US intensify attacks on Iran as war hits 7th day

Source: Radio New Zealand

Follow the latest with our live blog above.

The conflict in Iran continues to widen.

In Azerbaijan, two people have been injured after Iranian drones hit an airport and landed near a school building.Explosions have been heard over Bahrain and Qatar.

Evacuation notices have been issued for southern parts of Lebanon’s capital Beirut, Israel is attacking strongholds of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military says it has continued its attacks on Iran.

And, US President Donald Trump told news outlet Axios that he needs to personally be involved in selecting Iran’s new leader.

Follow the latest with our live blog at the top of this page.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Sir Peter Jackson to receive an honorary award at Cannes

Source: Radio New Zealand

New Zealand Oscar-winning filmmaker Sir Peter Jackson will be awarded the Palm d’Or at the opening of this year’s Cannes Film Festival.

Best known for creating the Lord of the Rings trilogy, Jackson said the honour was “one of the greatest privileges of my career”.

The French film festival organisers said the award recognised “a body of work that blends Hollywood blockbusters and films d’auteur with extraordinary artistic vision and technological audacity”.

“Cannes has been a meaningful part of my filmmaking journey,” Jackson said in a statement following Thursday’s announcement.

“In 1988, I attended the Festival Marketplace with my first movie, Bad Taste, then in 2001 we screened a preview sequence from The Fellowship of the Ring, both of which were important milestones in my career.

“This festival has always celebrated bold, visionary cinema, and I’m incredibly grateful to the Festival de Cannes for being recognised among the filmmakers and the artists whose work continues to inspire me.”

In giving Jackson the honour, Cannes president Iris Knobloch said: “The Festival welcomes and thanks a filmmaker of boundless creativity who has brought prestige to the heroic fantasy genre”.

In 1993 Jackson founded Wētā Digital with Sir Richard Taylor and Jamie Selkirk. The workshop has produced visual effects for films including The Lord of the Rings series King Kong, Avatar and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

Previous recipients of the award include Tom Cruise and Meryl Streep. Last year it was given to Robert De Niro and Denzel Washington.

The Cannes Film Festival runs from 12-23 May. Sourh Korean director Park Chan-wook will preside over this year’s jury.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Donald Trump replaces Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem

Source: Radio New Zealand

By Ted Hesson, Reuters

Kristi Noem is being moved to a new role. TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP

One of the top officials overseeing President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, will leave her role, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday (US time).

It’s a major staffing move that raises questions about the direction of the Republican president’s immigration agenda.

“I am pleased to announce that the Highly Respected United States Senator from the Great State of Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS), effective March 31, 2026,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Noem will serve as “Special envoy for The Shield of the Americas,” Trump said.

Noem, a former governor of South Dakota, became one of Trump’s most high-profile Cabinet secretaries with social media posts that portrayed immigrants in harsh terms, highlighting cases of alleged criminal offenders and using vitriolic language.

She faced criticism in January when she quickly labelled two US citizens fatally shot by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis as committing “domestic terrorism.”

Videos that emerged after the deaths undercut the assertion by Noem and other Trump officials that the two deceased – Renee Good and Alex Pretti – were violent aggressors.

The public backlash for the deaths led the Trump administration to move to a more targeted approach to immigration enforcement in Minnesota after months of sweeps through US cities that led to violent clashes with residents opposing the crackdown.

Democrats in the US House of Representatives moved to impeach Noem and at least two Republicans in Congress called for her to lose her job after the incidents.

During congressional hearings in March, Democrats and some Republicans criticized Noem for her approach to the immigration crackdown and management of DHS, including concern over a US$220 million (NZ$373m) ad campaign that heavily featured Noem.

The staffing change raises questions about whether the Trump administration could seek to intensify its mass deportation push or retreat to a more targeted approach.

Under Noem’s leadership, masked immigration agents surged into Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington, DC., scouring neighborhoods and Home Depot parking lots in search of possible immigration offenders.

The popularity of Trump’s immigration approach fell as agents detained US citizens and tear-gassed streets in an attempt to drive up deportations, which last year fell short of the administration’s goal of 1 million per year.

AFP/Kamil Krzaczynski

Strong embrace of Trump’s hardline immigration approach

While Noem, 54, served as a prominent proponent of Trump’s agenda, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, a long-time Trump aide, controls Trump’s immigration policy.

Noem was quickly confirmed to lead the 260,000-employee Department of Homeland Security in January 2025 after Trump took office. On social media, she referred to immigrants convicted of crimes as “scumbags” even as the number of non-criminals arrested by immigration authorities rose under Trump.

She joined immigration enforcement operations on the ground in New York City and visited a maximum-security prison in El Salvador where Venezuelan immigrants deported by the Trump administration were being held without charges or access to lawyers.

The number of migrants caught trying to illegally cross the US-Mexico border plummeted under Trump’s restrictive policies, a steep drop after high levels of illegal immigration under former President Joe Biden, a Democrat.

Noem, reflecting Trump’s agenda, also took steps to cut legal immigration programmes and increase vetting. She ended several Temporary Protected Status programmes that provided work permits to hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Venezuela, Haiti and other nations, drawing legal challenges.

After an Afghan immigrant was accused of attacking National Guard members in Washington, DC, Noem said she recommended that Trump place “a full travel ban on every damn country that’s been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies.”

Critics said Noem demonised immigrants and promoted an immigration enforcement strategy that targeted non-criminal, working immigrants and families.

During Noem’s tenure, the number of deaths in immigration detention rose to a two-decade high while staff in DHS oversight offices were slashed sharply.

-Reuters

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Britney Spears arrested in California

Source: Radio New Zealand

Britney Spears was arrested Wednesday night (local time), according to information from Ventura County, California authorities.

Booking information obtained by CNN shows that the pop superstar was stopped by the California Highway Patrol (CHP) around 9.30pm, was booked shortly after 3am, Thursday and later released.

CHP public information officer Ryan Ayers confirmed to CNN via phone on Thursday that Spears was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence (DUI).

Her vehicle was towed, according to the arrest information.

“This was an unfortunate incident that is completely inexcusable,” a representative for Spears told CNN in an email. “Britney is going to take the right steps and comply with the law and hopefully this can be the first step in long overdue change that needs to occur in Britney’s life. Hopefully, she can get the help and support she needs during this difficult time.”

“Her boys are going to be spending time with her,” the representative said. “Her loved ones are going to come up with an overdue needed plan to set her up for success for well being.”

It is not the first time Spears has had legal issues.

The following year she was hospitalized for a psychiatric evaluation. Her father, Jamie Spears, was subsequently granted what was initially temporary conservatorship over her assets.

That conservatorship was later extended and lasted for 13 years, prompting fans to start a “Free Britney” movement aimed at ending it.

It was terminated in 2021 and since then Spears has mainly been seen through posts on her social media accounts, often in videos of her dancing posted to Instagram. Her account was unavailable Thursday.

Spears is scheduled to appear in court on 4 May.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand