Category: Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Pahīatua homicide: Police continue hunt for Jeremy Robertson six weeks after mother’s death

Source: Radio New Zealand

Jeremy Robertson. Supplied/ NZ Police

Six weeks after a woman was killed in Pahīatua, police are continuing to search for her son who is wanted in connection with her death.

Karen Gilbert-Palmer, 74, was found dead at a home in Arthur Street on 15 October by a friend who had been unable to contact her.

A homicide investigation then began, and her son Jeremy Robertson was identified by police as a suspect.

Gilbert-Palmer’s car was found at the Blue and Green Lakes lookout in Rotorua the following morning. However, six weeks on, Robertson remains missing.

On Wednesday, Detective Senior Sergeant Dave Thompson told RNZ police believe Robertson is likely still in that area.

“We have been making a lot of enquiries to locate Jeremy, and we are planning further police activity in that area in the coming weeks.

“I want to thank the members of the public who came forward with information in the early days of the investigation, including the call that led us to the car within hours of it being parked up.”

Do you know more? Email sam.sherwood@rnz.co.nz

Thompson said work to find Robertson had not stopped.

“Our focus remains on seeing justice served for Mrs Gilbert-Palmer, and finding Jeremy is key to that.”

Jeremy Robertson had been driving a red Mitsubishi ASX, registration QGU91, police said. Supplied/ NZ Police

Mother’s concerns

RNZ earlier revealed Robertson, who is believed to have had a history with mental health services, was planning to leave the home on the day she died and take a bus to Rotorua.

Gilbert-Palmer’s niece, Barbara Evans, earlier told RNZ her aunty, who she called Narnie, would regularly message her talking about her son and his mental health.

Evans, who was adopted at birth, reconnected with Gilbert-Palmer and her grandparents about 30 years ago.

Evans said it appeared Robertson’s behaviour was “escalating” in the weeks before Gilbert-Palmer’s death.

Evans shared a series of messages she exchanged with Gilbert-Palmer.

On 8 October, a week before she died, Gilbert-Palmer messaged Evans and said “I tell u wat, he was better when he was on the drugs and vape, more chilled out. More aggressive now. [sic]”

She said her son was “dead against drugs now”.

The following day, Gilbert-Palmer said her son “has been nice for one day, now back to wat [sic] he was”.

In another message she wrote Robertson “can be so nasty at times”.

Gilbert-Palmer said she wished her niece didn’t live so far away so she could go and spend a few days with her.

Later that evening she messaged that he had “settled down”.

Then, on 12 October, Gilbert-Palmer told Evans that her son was going to Rotorua by bus on 15 October.

“He decided on hus [sic] own, to much stuff going on down here, having a go at people verbally.”

Gibert-Palmer said she would “fill in” her niece once Robertson was gone. It was the last time Evans heard from her.

In September, Gilbert-Palmer told her niece he was back home living with her as there was “nowhere for him to go”.

He’d previously stayed in Feilding but was “rude” to people there and “out does his stay”, she said.

Evans said she was “absolutely devastated” when she heard her aunty was dead.

“I was going down on the Monday after he’d left. I was intending to go down and spend some time with her.”

She wanted to know what involvement mental health services had with Robertson.

Police say anyone who sees Robertson should not approach him. Call 111 immediately and advise police.

Non-urgent information can be passed to police via 105. Please quote file number 251015/6286.

Information can also be provided anonymously via Crime Stoppers on 0800 555 111.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

First banks move after OCR cut

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Reserve Bank has cut the official cash rate to its lowest level in three years. RNZ

Just minutes after the Reserve Bank revealed it would cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent, advertised home loan rates started to drop.

The Co-Operative Bank said it was dropping its floating home loan rate by 31 basis points, more than the Reserve Bank reduction, to 4.99 percent.

Chief executive Mark Wilkshire said it “affirms our commitment to competitive interest rates”.

– more to come

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Golf: Ryan Fox sets lofty goals for himself in 2026

Source: Radio New Zealand

New Zealand golfer Ryan Fox. Matthew Harris / PHOTOSPORT

The holiday is over for Ryan Fox and the Kiwi golfer is gearing up for what he hopes will be an even better 2026.

Fox completed his second full season on the PGA Tour with two victories and a top 40 finish in the 2025 standings.

After that he took a fully deserved two months away from the game, relaxing back in Auckland with his family.

“The year I had let me do that, have a chance to take a break, be a dad, be normal and so I’m buzzing to be back into it this week,” Fox told media in Brisbane.

He didn’t touch his golf clubs for the first month of his break but has been training since then, playing some social golf. He’s now preparing for this week’s Australian PGA Championship in Queensland.

Fox has won in Australia three times, the first was in 2014 and it is a place he enjoys playing.

“Obviously this is the first tour I played when I turned pro and this year it fitted in perfectly (with my schedule).

“I didn’t want to take three months off golf and go back (to the US) early next year and find it (his game) again.

“We’re playing two great golf courses the next two weeks, great fields, and I wanted to be a part of it.”

Ryan Fox of New Zealand lifts the championship trophy after winning the Canadian Open, 2025. Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire

Fox won the Myrtle Beach Classic in May and the Canadian Open in June. So what about 2026?

“Obviously I want to build on it, it’s hard to beat a year like I had this year, other than missing the Tour Championship I ticked every box.”

He does want to make the international team for the first time and play the Presidents Cup against the USA at Medinah in Chicago in September 2026.

“That is something I feel I’ve missed out on the last couple of goes and I’m in a good place, I’m in all the big events next year so I really want to be a part of that team.”

The 38-year-old said he would also love to be contending in one of the major tournaments. He has previously finished in the top 20 at both the the Open Championship and the US Open.

“I know my golf game is good enough to compete with the best players in the world and I give myself a few more chances of that next year.”

So he’ll get back up to speed in Australia over the next two weeks at the Australian PGA Championship and the Australian Open.

“I’m coming in here not playing to keep status which is really nice, but I want to do well the next two weeks.

“It’s a good place to be, my golf game is in good shape at home so I’m excited to test it in tournament conditions again.”

Ryan Fox plays a bunker shot at Oakmont Country Club. 2025 US Open. Matthew Harris / PHOTOSPORT

Fox will play alongside nine other New Zealand golfers this week, including World Tour players Daniel Hillier and Kazuma Kobori.

“Kiwi golf is in a really good place at the moment with a bunch of guys on various tours around the world and to see young guys doing well and it’s cool to see so many of them here,” Fox said.

The Australian PGA Championship runs from 27-30 November at the Royal Queensland Golf Club.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Ministers were warned against teen welfare crackdown, documents reveal

Source: Radio New Zealand

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Social Development Minister Louise Upston. Marika Khabazi

Newly released advice shows officials urged the government against its welfare crackdown on 18-and-19-year-olds, warning it could actually increase the risk of long-term benefit dependency.

The Ministry of Social Development (MSD) also said the tightened eligibility could incentivise teenage pregnancies and keep abuse victims financially reliant on their abusive parents.

In a statement, Social Development Minister Louise Upston acknowledged the “free and frank” advice but said she did not necessarily agree with all of it.

“Our position is very clear: young people should be in work, in education or in training,” Upston said.

“Young people should first be supported by their parents. We don’t believe a life on welfare is as good as it gets for young people.”

From November 2026, those aged 18 and 19 will only qualify for Jobseeker support if their parents earn less than $65,529 or if they can prove they cannot rely on their parents for financial help.

About 4300 young people are expected to become ineligible.

An MSD regulatory impact statement (RIS), published online, assessed the proposed restrictions as being no better than the status quo overall.

While the new restrictions would save the government money, officials said: “in terms of impact on young people and their families, the costs will likely significantly outweigh the benefits.”

The RIS said teenagers who lost access to benefits would also miss out on MSD support designed to help them into work, such as literacy or numeracy programmes. Without that assistance, those teens could be at greater risk of future benefit dependency.

Officials said there was “no clear evidence” that the changes would incentivise young people to enter employment, education or training, meaning they could well just move on to the benefit at age 20.

“This policy does not address any underlying causes as to why people receive a benefit in the first place.”

The report also said some young people might find themselves cut off altogether as their parents were under “no obligation” to provide support. This was highlighted as a particular risk for members of rainbow communities.

“There is a risk that they may not have access to financial support at all if their parents refuse or are unable to support them financially.”

Alternatively, abuse victims could be forced to turn to their abusers for help.

“This policy may result in young people being expected to be financially dependent on their parents in situations where they have previously been subjected to physical, psychological, emotional, or sexual violence.”

Officials said the policy could also increase demand on food banks and other community services, due to the increased costs for young people and their parents.

The analysis highlighted particular risks for minority groups who were more likely to be represented in the benefit system.

“Disabled people tend to face higher costs of living due to health-related expenses and could be disadvantaged if this is not accounted for in the parental income limit,” the analysis said.

Officials also flagged that some young people might be “incentivised to have children to maintain access to income support”, because the new rules would not apply to young parents.

The RIS shows MSD preferred a very different approach: expanding education, training, and skills programmes to help young people into work.

Officials said this non-regulatory option would better reduce long-term benefit dependency by addressing literacy, numeracy, and employment-readiness barriers.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Auckland executive paid teen $1000 for sex, exchanged Uber Eats for intimate photos

Source: Radio New Zealand

The executive, who has name suppression has since left his job. RNZ/Yiting Lin

An Auckland executive who has admitted paying a teenage girl for sex met the teen on Snapchat, where he described himself as a “sugar daddy”.

After a couple of weeks of the 14-year-old girl messaging the man intimate pictures and videos of herself, they met in person and the executive paid her $1000 for sex.

The man, whose name is suppressed, earlier this month admitted a charge of paying a person aged under 18 for sex. The law says it’s illegal for anyone to enter into a contract, or “other arrangement”, for sex with someone under 18.

The executive will be sentenced in March, but details of his offending can now be revealed.

Court documents obtained by RNZ said the middle-aged man didn’t know the 14-year-old girl before the pair met on Snapchat, an encrypted social media platform.

In early September the executive added the teen as a friend and they started talking.

“This included requesting a photo of the victim, asking how old she was and reporting himself as a sugar daddy,” said a court summary of the offending.

“In reply the victim sent a photo of her face.”

The teen told the executive she was 17, three years older than her actual age.

Uber eats for pictures

The summary said the teen requested the executive pay for Uber Eats for her. He said he would if she sent him intimate pictures, which she did several times, for which the man bought takeaways.

This continued for about three weeks.

“Between 3 and 17 September the victim sent the defendant 12 images and 19 short videos,” the summary said

These were taken or recorded in the teen’s bathroom, where she was naked and either “sexually posing” or engaging in sexual acts.

“These are sexualised images, including a video of the victim wearing her school uniform.”

On 14 September the executive bought the teen a $200 Prezzy Card.

A week later he paid for an Uber to drop the teen at his house. On arrival she said she was 17, and the executive paid her $1000, but he said he knew that as she was under 18 he couldn’t pay her for sex.

At the teen’s request, the executive then paid for an Uber to bring one of her friends, who was also 14, to his house.

The executive and the teen he paid money to then went to his bedroom, where “sexual activity occurred”.

Afterwards, the executive paid for the teen and her friend to take an Uber to a shopping mall.

Executive claims no contract entered into

When police contacted the executive he gave them a statement after speaking to a lawyer.

“He stated it was his belief the victim was 17 years old, and he did not enter a contract for sex.”

The teen said she felt disgust at her interaction with the executive, who had no previous convictions.

When he appeared in the Auckland District Court this month his lawyer Graeme Newell said police had moved fast in laying the prosecution, and at that stage the executive hadn’t yet told his family and had only just informed his employer.

At Newell’s request, Judge Belinda Sellars, KC, didn’t convict the executive.

He faces a maximum sentence of seven years’ jail and is on bail until his sentencing.

The executive has since left his job.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

$500 million indoor sport and aquatics centre to open in Christchurch next month

Source: Radio New Zealand

By Gwenaёlle Chollet, journalism student

Parakiore has five hydroslides. Supplied / Christchurch City Council

The country’s biggest indoor sport and aquatics centre will open to the public in Christchurch next month.

People will be able to whizz down a hydroslide, shoot some hoops or relax in a sauna at Parakiore on Moorhouse Avenue from 5.30am on 17 December.

Christchurch mayor Phil Mauger said the Crown officially handed Parakiore to the city council on 31 October, followed by a fit-out, testing and commissioning process.

“It’s certainly been a long road but I know the whole team is thrilled to be preparing for the first event, and then opening the doors to the public,” he said.

A formal ceremony will take place on 9 December before Parakiore hosts swimming and basketball competitions for the Special Olympics National Summer Games from 10-14 December, Mauger said.

It is the country’s largest indoor sport and acquatics centre. Supplied / Christchurch City Council

“It’s fitting that such a fantastic event will be the first to make use of the new world-class facility.

“Once we’ve packed up the Special Olympics and made sure everything is shipshape, the gym, pools, hydroslides and community courts will all be open for public use.”

At 32,000 square metres, the centre boasts a 50 metre competition pool, dive pool, five hydroslides, a large recreational pool and a sensory aqua centre as well as nine indoor courts, fitness studios and a High Performance Sport New Zealand training base.

Parakiore was built by Crown Infrastructure Delivery and is now owned and operated by the council. The project was plagued by a litany of problems including construction headaches, unfavourable ground conditions, cost blow-outs and legal wrangling.

The centre opens to the public on 17 December. Supplied / Christchurch City Council

The cost of Parakiore was expected to reach about $500 million, more than double the sum originally forecast.

The city council’s contribution to the project was capped at $147m.

Considered one of the city’s main post-quake anchor projects, the centre was originally expected to be completed in 2016 but a $75m budget blow-out saw a deal with a preferred contractor axed by the government, with the project later handed over to Crown-led project managers.

The delivery agency originally known as Ōtākaro Limited has had two re-brands over the course of construction, changing to Rau Paenga in 2023 and then Crown Infrastructure Delivery.

Construction finally began in 2018 with a revised completion date of October 2021 that was again revised to late-2023 because of logistical difficulties caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The centre will be open for swimming and basketball competitions for the Special Olympics National Summer Games from 10-14 December. Supplied / Christchurch City Council

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Regional council revamp ‘pretty serious attack’ on Treaty rights – Andrew Little

Source: Radio New Zealand

Wellington mayor Andrew Little RNZ / Mark Papalii

The mayor of Wellington says the coalition’s proposed restructure of local government is a “pretty serious attack” on the Crown’s treaty obligations.

The coalition wants mayors of city and district councils to take over the duties of regional councillors, in what would be the biggest local government shakeup in three decades.

The proposed removal of regional seats includes scrapping Māori constituencies.

There are currently two regional councils with specific legislation for Māori represenation: Bay of Plenty Regional Council and Canterbury Regional Council.

The government’s discussion document states the government has “considered the impact of the proposal on Māori rights and interests”.

It also says the proposal “has been designed to not undermine, disrupt or affect Treaty settlements but is seeking a wide range of views to ensure this is the case”.

‘A total backtrack’ – Little

Speaking on Nine to Noon on Wednesday, Wellington mayor Andrew Little said the proposals would impact Māori representation that had been guaranteed under the Treaty of Waitangi.

“One thing that regional councils do is regulate the environment. The fundamental promise of the Treaty of Waitangi was tino rangatiratanga over whenua, over land, and other valued things.

“So to undermine the representation of Māori over environmental things is a total backtrack on the obligations that [have] been recognised for the last 50 years that the Crown has under the Treaty.

“Regional councils and district councils act effectively with Crown authority when they regulate the environment, so undermining that representation is a pretty serious attack on treaty obligations.”

Little said it would narrow the diversity of representation at council level.

“The proposals that were announced yesterday look like they are diluting, or in fact completely removing that Māori representation on that important function and that cannot be consistent with the Crown’s obligations under the Treaty.”

Speaking more generally on the proposed changes, Little said the direction of travel was amalgamation.

“One obvious conclusion to draw from the proposals, as they’ve been announced, is it is trying to drive towards greater amalgamation.

“It’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s got to be supported locally and democratically, though.”

Little said the proposals would also “significantly’ add to a mayor’s workload.

“There’s a whole new organisation to get to grips with. There’ll be staff, including a chief executive, that has to have appropriate oversight and support so that adds to what is already a growing workload for mayors.

“I’m not quite sure what the underpinning analysis was that suggested that this was an easy transfer to make.”

Gisborne mayor Rehette Stoltz RNZ / Angus Dreaver

RMA needs to be part of discussion – Gisborne mayor

Gisborne mayor Rehette Stoltz said the proposals wouldn’t change the functions of regional councils but they did risk losing technical expertise.

She also said the Resource Management Act had a big part to play in the national conversation about how to best restructure local government.

“Before we criticise regional councils, they’re working under a regime called the Resource Management Act, which we all agree is not fit for purpose.

“So I think we also need to make sure that discussion is had alongside what the functions are that we want to have on a local, regional level or national level.”

Stoltz said Gisborne had operated as a unitary authority since 1989 that did the work of both a city council and regional council.

It had worked well for her region, though that didn’t mean it would be the best approach in other parts of the country, she said.

“It works really well for us because we have a single governance structure making both the local and the regional decisions, which means there is real clear accountability. Your community know exactly who is responsible for that and for what and then we can also have integrated planning across our land, water and infrastructure.

“That works really well for us, because all the major planning and regulatory functions sit under one roof.

“During Cyclone Gabrielle, it was easier to have a coordinated emergency response. When you need rapid decision making, you don’t need to negotiate across multiple councils.

“You have a coordinated response, and your community know exactly who is responsible for what. So there is some reduced duplication but the fact that it works for the Gisborne District Council does not mean it will work for any other region.”

Asked if her community would not support being amalgamated with other regions, she responded: “I think if you asked the people of Gisborne that, that will be a firm no…we have been a unitary authority forever, and it works well for us.

“We never put those discussions aside, though, because we haven’t had a review in 36 years. So this is a once in a lifetime review. The devil will be in the detail.”

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Pygmy sperm whale found dead on Auckland’s North Shore

Source: Radio New Zealand

A whale washed up on Ōrewa Beach on Wednesday. Supplied / Maddi Newson

A pygmy sperm whale has been found dead on the shores of Ōrewa in Auckland’s North Shore.

“I can confirm that DOC is responding to the body of a pygmy sperm whale at Ōrewa.

“At this point I have few other details,” Department of Conservation spokesperson Nicole Steven said.

A whale washed up on Ōrewa Beach on Wednesday. Supplied / Maddi Newson

Steven said they don’t know the cause of death yet.

“This info would require a necropsy,” she said.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Man charged with arson over Waiuku recycling facility fire

Source: Radio New Zealand

More than 60 firefighters tackled the first blaze at Waiuku recycling facility. Supplied

Shipping containers near an Auckland business park that caught fire late on Monday were ablaze again in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Fire and Emergency said the latest fire is believed to be a flare-up of the previous blaze.

Fire engulfed nearly 5000 square metres of plastic at a recycling facility storage area in Waiuku Business Park on Monday.

The fire spread to six containers at an adjacent business, Designmax Homes.

Waiuku Business Park’s owner Sam Wulff said the containers were on land that’s not part of the business park, and he hasn’t been contacted by police about the fire overnight.

A Designmax Homes staff member said the business didn’t want to comment.

Meanwhile, a man has been charged over Monday night’s fire.

The police say a 30-year-old local man has been charged with arson and is due to appear at Pukekohe District Court on Wednesday.

Fire and Emergency shift manager Ryan Geen said firefighters were called to the same business park about 3.30am today.

“They found two shipping containers [on fire], that were involved in the fire the other night,” he said.

The fire was put out by about 5am, he said.

Crews did not call a fire investigator or the police, but the investigation into Monday night’s fire was ongoing, he said.

The police are treating Monday’s fire as suspicious.

Wulff earlier told RNZ he leased out part of the industrial lot to the plastics recycling company, Future Post.

He was shocked to learn that the first fire might have been deliberately lit there.

He said the recycling facility converted waste plastic into fence posts.

Residents near a huge fire at a recycling facility in Waiuku on Monday night were asked to stay indoors. Supplied

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Is it cheaper to pay a mortgage, or rent?

Source: Radio New Zealand

In both markets, people looking for a home have the power. 123rf

House prices are down, but rent rises have flattened.

In both markets, people looking for a home have the power.

So is it better, financially, to own or rent?

That’s a question that ANZ economist Matt Galt has been pondering.

He said how the cost of renting compared to home ownership was a big driver of house prices.

“The balance between the running costs of owning a home over time – interest, council rates, insurance – and rents is one of the main anchors for house prices, to which they gravitate.”

When the costs of owning a home are low compared to renting, both owner-occupiers and investors are more likely to buy, bidding up prices.

But when ownership costs are high relative to rents, house prices come under pressure.

To compare the cost of owning versus renting, he used the interest cost on a home loan with a 50 percent loan-to-value ratio at a five-year fixed rate, plus council rates, insurance, maintenance and a small buffer for other costs.

“What you often find is when you first buy a house, you have quite a big mortgage, like 80 percent loan-to-value for example, and when you have a big mortgage, the cost of owning a house will typically be quite a bit more than renting. But over the full time you own that house, hopefully you’ll be able to repay principal and the LVR will come down and what we find is that the cost of renting and the cost of owning are about equal when the loan is 50 percent of the house value and that might be the experience over a number of years for some people.”

In Auckland, the median rent is about $650 a week. Someone with a 20 percent deposit buying a house for $900,000 – the median price for first-home buyers in the city – would pay about $890 a week on a five-year fixed term.

But someone with a mortgage of $500,000 would be paying less than $620 as week.

He said between 2022 and 2024 high interest rates and other costs put downward pressure on house prices. At that point, it was a lot more expensive to own a house than to rent one.

But between 2019 and 2021, home ownership running costs were well below rents, which prompted some tenants to think they might as well buy if they could.

“I think a lot of people when they go to buy a house they’ll look at what they might be paying in rent versus what they’ll pay in mortgage and then they’ll add on perhaps council rates or insurance and other costs as they learn more about the types of housing they are wanting to buy. If owning a house does look very cheap, like when interest rates were low in 2019 and 2020, it would really encourage people to jump into the market and they did in large numbers despite prices being very high at that time,” Galt said.

“I think it does shape people’s housing choices and particularly for investors. as well. who will be quite carefully weighing up the rent income they receive versus the cost of owning a house.”

Things are now back in balance compared to where they have generally been over history.

“Home ownership running costs have since eased as interest rates have fallen and overall are now more or less back in line with their historical relationship with rents.

“Interest is the dominant cost and also the main source of variation,” he said. “The home ownership running costs proxy has dropped over the past month due to a sizeable fall in fixed mortgage rates over October.”

But the story is nuanced.

“Changes in interest costs reflect not only changes in interest rates but also changes in house prices, as the proxy is for buying a house now. Over 2021, both were rising, which explains the particularly sharp increase in home ownership costs over that period.”

Galt said several changes over the past year had brought ownership costs and rents back in balance.

“Home ownership costs have decreased as both house prices and interest rates have fallen, but this has been partly offset by increases in other ownership costs such as council rates and insurance. Rents have fallen a little, meaning home ownership costs have had to fall further to close the gap.

“The combination of falling rents and high council rates and insurance costs has been a significant drag on house prices in recent years, which has dampened the impact of falling interest rates,” he said,

He said it was likely that five-year mortgage interest rates would rise a bit from where they are now through next year, but the comparison between renting and owning was not likely to change a lot.

“Our forecasts anticipate home ownership costs and rents staying in balance over the next couple of years, which points to broad stability in house prices, potentially with a modest increase in prices as the economy experiences a cyclical recovery next year.

“The current balance of these costs and benefits of home ownership certainly doesn’t suggest that house prices are likely to race away.

“Overall, the market’s looking quite well balanced at the moment. We are expecting the ongoing costs of home ownership and rents to stay roughly around balance over the next couple of years and that just reflects interest rates staying relatively low.

“We do have them ticking up in our forecasts towards the end of 2026 but that’s very much a placeholder at this stage. The broad story is interest rates staying down for a while and house prices only increasing at a gradual rate next year as the economy recovers.”

Council rates were likely to rise at a slower rate, he said.

“They increased 12 percent a couple of years ago, that’s dropped to 9 percent and then we expect them to keep easing but still going up.”

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand