Source: Radio New Zealand
RNZ
Auckland and Wellington remain the parts of the country with prices furthest from their peak – but one property investor says one is looking more undervalued than the other at the moment.
Cotality has released its latest data, which shows a 0.1 percent lift in values for New Zealand in November.
The national median now sits at $806,551, which is 17.4 percent below the early 2022 peak and only 1.1 percent higher than June 2023’s trough.
But within that data, the picture is mixed.
Auckland is 22.9 percent below its peak, down 2.2 percent year-on-year and down 0.2 percent in the month.
Hamilton is down 11.4 percent from peak but up 0.3 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent in the month.
Tauranga is down 15.2 percent from the peak and up 1.2 percent year-on-year.
Wellington is down 25.1 percent from the peak and down 1.8 percent over a year but up 0.1 percent for the month.
Christchurch is only 3.8 percent below its peak and up 2.6 percent over a year.
Dunedin is down 10.8 percent from its price peak and up 0.2 percent in a year.
“Property values across the country were patchy over May to August as households and firms remained in a cautious mood,” Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.
“September and October brought a few signs of life for values, but November just eased off a little bit again Clearly, the falls in mortgage rates we’ve seen lately would point to a bit more upside for property values as we get into 2026, not least because a range of housing affordability measures have also improved back closer to their long-term averages. But the subdued November property value data suggests that this process continues to take a bit of time to get started.”
He said the number of houses for sale remained higher than normal for this time of year.
“Many buyers will still be feeling that they’re in the box-seat when it comes to price negotiations. At the same time, while the economy is showing some encouraging signs, the unemployment rate is still a concern and jobs growth is yet to kick into gear. On balance, the fundamentals seem to be moving towards growth in property values next year. But right now, we remain in a holding pattern.”
Davidson said if Auckland was removed from the national figures, there would have been increases in value in recent months.
“The flatness of the national figure is sort of an Auckland story – Auckland lagging behind everyone else.”
He said November was the eighth month in a row that Auckland’s property values had declined.
“That’s after a smaller, cumulative rise of 1.6 percent in the seven months to March this year. In other words, Tāmaki Makaurau continues to lag many other parts of the country, and this is weighing on the national median. Buyer caution and a relatively high supply of property are relevant factors here,” he said.
He said economic confidence in Auckland was a bit slower to improve.
“It doesn’t have the same lift from things like farming and agriculture, it’s more service-based so that’s going to be a bit of restraint on Auckland’s housing market.
“Then also the supply factor, there’s a decent pipeline of townhouses coming on to the Auckland market – listings are still in favour of buyers… I think these things help explain the slight lag in Auckland’s market. There just seems to be a bit of a malaise around Auckland at the moment. Will we see it come back? At some stage for sure. It’s the biggest economy, it’s where a lot of job creation comes from and I guess a lot of our economic growth really through parts of the cycle. It’ll come back but it does show you that supply and demand can play a role
“And we’ve seen Christchurch over the years has had a good rise in supply, and it’s kept a bit of a lid on housing affordability or house price growth. And we’re seeing the same in Auckland now.”
He said most other main centres were up more significantly, as well as many provincial markets. “We see continued growth in Invercargill and that next tier down of towns and cities.”
Property investment coach Steve Goodey said he thought Auckland as probably undervalued.
Many Auckland properties were selling with good rental yields, he said, and falling interest rates gave investors more room to buy.
“I’m not ready to start saying there’s FOMO in the market but there’s certainly a lot of upward pressure on some properties. Well presented stuff is moving and moving quite quickly.”
He said Wellington was different.
“It’s very depressed. There are heaps of listings and rents have been dropping, they’ve stopped dropping as hard but they’ve dropped quite some way. Wellington has an awful lot of problems at the moment, there are so many issues that aren’t being addressed, aren’t being fixed, it’s creating a lot of opportunity but anyone who bought in 2021 has massively overpaid and is probably stuck with that property.
“Wellington I don’t think has been overdeveloped, it’s just been abandoned to a degree. Tourism we’re not getting any more, immigration we’re not getting any more, students we’re not getting anymore. Property is available and it’s become a buyer and renter’s market.”
Investors had started to come back into the market in the capital, he said.
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