Source: Radio New Zealand
Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA) is expecting above-average temperatures for most of the country heading into summer. RNZ
A record-breaking November pushed New Zealand to its warmest spring on record.
Data from Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly NIWA) shows the average temperature across the country was 13.5°C, which was 1.3°C hotter than the long-term average and the warmest spring since records began in 1909.
ESNZ meteorologist Chester Lampkin said the hotter-than-average weather sat within an overall warming climate trend, and was likely to continue into summer.
Lampkin said September and October were already above average months this year.
“Then November ended up being a record-setter… If you recall, towards the end of the month we had some very hot temperatures.”
Across the country, 51 stations recorded their warmest average temperature, and seven places set new records during late November for the single hottest spring day.
That included temperatures of close to or above 32°C in Whakatu in Hawke’s Bay, Cheviot in North Canterbury and Dunedin.
The hottest temperature recorded anywhere in the country was 33°C in Hastings, on 27 November – the second hottest day on record there.
Lampkin said the record-setting warmth was driven by a north-westerly wind flow.
“We were getting a lot of warm air coming out of the Tasman and flowing over the country, both the North and the South Island.”
The water surrounding New Zealand, especially the North Island, was experiencing a marine heatwave, he said.
“When you have warm air flowing over warm water, you’re going to get even warmer air once it hits the land.”
ESNZ’s summer outlook was for above-average temperatures for most of the country, especially in the north of the North Island.
Part of that was due to La Niña conditions that had formed, but it was also down to an overall climate trend, Lampkin said.
“It’s going to be another warm, hot summer, and that certainly points to a new normal.”
It was possible more records could tumble.
“These warmer-than-average months, record-setting months, these more-than-average seasons are more likely to occur because of overall warming of the planet,” he said.
“You’ve got warmer ocean temperatures, warmer water, you’ve got a warmer background climate state – it doesn’t take much to push temperatures to record territory.”
The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed earlier this year that 2024 was the warmest year on record, based on six international datasets.
It was the first year that average temperatures were more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified a long-term average of 1.5°C as the level of warming at which dangerous climate ‘tipping points’, such as the loss of coral reefs and catastrophic ice sheet melting, could begin to occur.
It was important to remember there could still be cooler periods, Lampkin said.
“Even though you do have these hot months… it doesn’t mean you can’t have cold weather. It doesn’t mean there won’t be cold extremes – it just makes it harder for those occur.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand