Category: Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

Finance Minister Nicola Willis might be being optimistic if she thinks inflation at 3.7 percent is a “worst case scenario”, one economist says.

Willis told media on Monday that in the event of a prolonged conflict in Iran, lasting until the end of the year, inflation could hit that level, as modelled by Treasury.

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said that seemed light.

Data on Tuesday showed food prices up 4.5 percent over a year, alcohol and tobacco up 0.2 percent month-on-month and electricity up 1.6 percent month-on-month, a bigger jump than expected. Domestic airfares were up 12.8 percent compared to January and more than 10 percent over a year.

“It just makes me a bit nervous in terms of how realistic it is to expect inflation to moderate through the course of this year.

“There are so many little bits you can look at and go oh there’s issues there … which suggests it’s going to be perhaps more difficult to get it back down to 2 percent than the Reserve Bank might have been anticipating.”

He said he would be redoing forecasts over the next couple of weeks and would increase his expectations.

“My instinctive reaction to the number from the Finance Minster yesterday of 3.7 percent being a worst-case scenario … it felt too light to be a worst-case scenario.”

At ANZ, senior economist Miles Workman said the bank’s had updated its forecast.

“The Middle East conflict is no longer shaping up to be a short, sharp shock.”

It now thinks inflation will peak at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the third quarter of the year, with oil prices hovering around US$100 a barrel for some time yet before falling again towards the end of the year.

“Base effects, together with the assumption that oil prices eventually normalise, see annual inflation troughing at 1.4 percent in Q3 2027 before stabilising around 2 percent over the medium term. There are risks on both sides of this.”

Westpac said it now did not expect inflation to get below 3 percent until the end of the year.

Mike Jones, chief economist at BNZ, said it would be the second quarter data on for inflation that bore the full brunt of the direct effect of rising fuel prices, although there would be some impact on the March month of the first quarter.

“Things are clearly still moving around but we recently bumped up our Q1 inflation forecast to 2.9 percent , with Q2 rising to 3.6 percent.

“As always there are overs and unders to balance [from Tuesday’s data] … But we’re left with a bit of upside risk on that 2.9 percent forecast for Q1. We didn’t see quite the extent of seasonal declines in fresh fruit and vegetable prices we’d factored in.”

ANZ said it did not think the change to the outlook for inflation would affect its official cash rate predictions yet.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

Seven Oranga Tamariki workers are accused of bashing two teens – or failing to stop them being bashed – in a tiny phone room at Korowai Manaaki in Wiri.

Prosecutors said the staff had gratuitously assaulted the boys after the teens had barricaded themselves in the two-by-1.5 metre room for more than an hour.

When the staff eventually got the door open, the six male defendants “stormed the booth in quick succession” and when they emerged, the teens appeared slumped over and injured.

But defence lawyers said the staff were using legal restraint to keep themselves and the teens safe in a high risk situation where the boys were destroying the booth, setting off sprinklers and flooding the unit.

Joseph Kirifi, Tapu Brown, Aidan Va, Quentin Schmidt, Susana Sofara, and two others with name suppression are on trial at the Manukau District Court and today pleaded not guilty to two charges of ill treatment or neglect of a child on 23 May 2023.

The crown told the jury that the charge meant each defendant had either assaulted the young people themselves, or failed to take reasonable steps to stop others hurting them.

Crown prosecutor Katie Karpik said the 16- and 17-year-old boys, who have name suppression, had been refusing to come out of the booth on the day in question, setting off the sprinklers.

They both had convictions for violence, were difficult to managed and one had escaped onto the roof before, she said.

When staff were finally able to open the door, the staff were frustrated and “elevated”, she said

“Despite there being only two youths in that small phone booth room they became significantly outnumbered by the defendants, she said.

“All seven defendant were in the room at one stage….and all six male defendants were in it for three minutes with two youths.”

Witnesses in the following days noticed black eyes and other injuries, she said

“The crown suggests such injuries are the result of gratuitous assaults and not necessary and reasonable levels of force.”

One of the defendants, Aidan Va, already had a conviction that for harming a boy at Korowai Manaaki about a month earlier, she said

He had arranged and filmed a one-on-one fight between two boys, she said.

She noted that did not mean he was guilty of the latest charges.

Relating to today’s case, he had sent a text to a friend saying he had “f***ed up” two boys and it was “crack up,” Karpik said.

The investigation that led to today’s charges was not sparked by a complaint from the boys, but other case workers had noticed their injuries.

When asked about them, the boys had lied and blamed them on things like falling off a chair, she said.

“They appreciated snitching was not the done thing,” she said.

No solid evidence, says defence

Each defendant has their own lawyer, and many wanted to make clear each defence was likely to be unique.

But most pointed out that, under law, the justice facility staff are entitled to use force against young people as long as it is reasonable.

They noted their clients were well trained and had used known, safe tactics to restrain the boys.

Joseph Kirifi’s lawyer Rasyad Ismail said his client was responding to a fast past situation that had escalated in the unit.

“Staff had no choice but to force entry into the room,” he said.

“The situation unfolded in a custodial environment where staff are sometimes required to intervene quickly to manage behaviour and to maintain safety,” he said.

Each of the boys had a long history of serious violence, including escaping custody, he said.

Several of the lawyers noted prosecutors did not know what happened in the booth – so, they could not separate who was alleged to have done the assault and who was alleged to have allowed it.

Shannon Withers, defending one of the men with name suppression, said the Crown case was “inferences at best, guesses and speculation at worst.”

He noted there were a lot of small people in a very small space where the boys had been destructive. That meant there could have been accidental injuries.

Emma Priest, for another with name suppression, noted the text messages the Crown was relying on for some of its case should be taken with a grain of salt.

They could be black humour among friends, she said, noting the use of emojis.

The trial is likely to take several weeks.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

A New Zealand citizen living in Dubai says they feel abandoned by the government as conflict intensifies, describing constant missile activity, shortages and a lack of clear evacuation support.

Speaking anonymously, the expat told RNZ that conditions on the ground were far worse than portrayed publicly.

“Everything is not normal. It’s absolutely not business as usual,” they said.

“We’re getting constant alerts on our phones to take shelter. You can hear missiles being fired and intercepted. From my balcony I can see drones and fighter jets.”

The New Zealander described waking to “waves of bombs” and ongoing air defence activity in residential areas.

They said essential services were under strain, with supermarkets facing shortages and rising prices and hospitals unable to admit patients for non-critical care.

“I took a friend to the emergency department and they needed surgery, but they were turned away because hospitals are saving beds due to the conflict.”

The resident also described a crackdown on documenting events, saying authorities had warned people not to take photos or videos under any circumstances.

“Even if it’s your own apartment, even if a drone flies into it, you can be arrested for taking a photo.”

They alleged spot checks were being carried out, with officials reportedly searching phones and detaining people found with images of incidents.

“There’s no real explanation anymore. It’s just: don’t do it, or you’ll be arrested.”

‘I feel abandoned’

The expat said they had been monitoring the SafeTravel website prior to the conflict affecting Dubai, but no timely warning was issued.

“There was no early indication this was coming. The communication has been really patchy,” they said.

The resident described repeated failed attempts to contact New Zealand consular services during an emergency.

“I called the emergency number and it went to voicemail. I didn’t hear back for two days.”

Compounding the situation, the New Zealander said they lost access to their finances after a cyberattack coincided with a web service outage.

“My account was being drained and I couldn’t stop it. The banking systems were down. Even my bank manager said he couldn’t do anything.”

Despite reporting the cyberattack and theft, they said no assistance was provided.

“I contacted the consulate and got nothing. I’m sitting here with a drained account, waiting for my next payday.”

Confusion over evacuation flights

The resident also raised concerns about the lack of clarity around evacuation efforts.

They said New Zealanders were asked to register interest in evacuation but were not given details about timing, destinations, or costs.

“At one point we were told the flights would just drop us somewhere and we’d have to make our own way home,” they said.

“There was never a clear plan.”

They also questioned reports that evacuation flights were under-utilised.

“The next thing we heard was that planes were flying home empty because there wasn’t enough interest. But people here are saying they were never properly offered a seat.”

Commercial flights remained an option, but the expat said prices were prohibitively high and conditions unpredictable.

“People are paying thousands for tickets, but then the airport shuts, or roads are blocked, and they can’t get there… and they don’t get refunds.”

Others were attempting to leave by road, despite legal and logistical barriers.

“People are buying cars just to try and drive across borders. But the advice we’re getting doesn’t match reality. In some cases you can’t even legally do what’s being suggested.”

The New Zealander said what many expatriates wanted most was clear, direct guidance.

“I asked them: should we leave? And they wouldn’t say yes.

“If they had said, ‘leave now, here’s the plan,’ I would have gone immediately.”

Instead, they said many feel left to make life-or-death decisions with limited information.

The New Zealander said they felt others lacked sympathy for expats as they believed that those living in Dubai were wealthy or insulated from hardship.

“I’m not an influencer. I’m just trying to support my kids through university,” they said.

They said other New Zealanders in the region had shared similar concerns.

“Everyone feels the same. We feel like we haven’t been given enough information or support.”

“It’s really scary and I’m definitely not the only one who feels abandoned.”

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade was approached for comment.

Its Safe Travel website continues to warn against travel to the United Arab Emirates, due to the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East and the current risk posed by military strikes and armed conflict.

“We encourage you to monitor local media for updates and follow the advice of local authorities.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

Firefighters are still battling a blaze at a large distribution warehouse in the central North Island.

The fire in Milson, Palmerston North was first reported at 6.32pm on Tuesday.

A Fire and Emergency spokesperson said the first crew was on the scene by 6.39pm and found the building “well ablaze”.

Everyone was safely evacuated from the building, the spokesperson said.

More than a dozen crews have been working through the night to bring the blaze under control, with resources being pulled in from Wellington.

“Twelve fire appliances and about seven support vehicles from the Manawatū area are attending. Further fire trucks from Whanganui, Paraparaumu and Porirua are also attending.”

The fire was now “largely contained”.

“It’s too early to determine a cause of the fire, however a fire investigator is in attendance,” the spokesperson said.

In an update on social media at 4am on Wednesday, the Palmerston North Fire Brigade said the fire was proving hard to control.

It said “high fuel loading of various types, large industrial shelving and the type of building construction making it difficult to reach the main areas of fire”.

It asked people to avoid the area during their morning commute, saying JFK Drive would be shut for some time between Rangitikei Line and Fairs Road in both directions.

“Reminder if you’re down wind of smoke to shut your windows and leave air conditioning off and if you feel at danger to please call 111.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

New Zealand consumers are being warned laptops, smart phones and even fridges are going to cost more as the price of key components jump by 400 percent.

Since the AI boom, manufacturers had pivoted away from making hardware like RAM and hard drives for general consumers – instead focusing on creating the more lucrative equipment for AI and data centers.

It was creating a shortage of key elements for phones, computers, even cars and dishwashers, prompting supply chain problems – driving up prices.

And according to experts, there was no signs of those prices slowing down for years.

In other words, if you need a new laptop or smartphone, do it now before the hikes continue.

Compulsion Tech’s managing director Ben Maxwell said the situation took a rapid turn late last year.

“The prices have just been crazy … I’ve never seen anything like it.

“Initially we sort of saw memory prices jump about 100 percent just within a few weeks and that was early Q4 last year. It almost continued with weekly price increases or sometimes even every few days.”

It became hard for Maxwell to get his hands on stock.

“There was no consideration of it even smoothing out or going down, it just kept creeping up for both RAM and solid-state drives.”

RAM was the flashy, fast memory that a computer processor accessed, while solid-state drives were the storage or hardrive for your technology. Both were two of the most important parts of computers.

“A 32 gig RAM kit used to sort of cost around $150. It’s now $750 for that same kit.

“It’s about 400 percent more expensive than it was in Q4 of last year.”

Maxwell said it was a similar increase for solid-state-drives.

“So just in those two parts alone and your standard computer, that’s 1000 bucks in extra price rise.”

But the increased price tag did not necessarily mean you were getting the best of the best either.

“You might have been able to buy a laptop last year for say $2000 … probably could have had two terabytes of storage, and 32 gigabytes of RAM.

“Now that same sort of model of laptop might cost two and a half grand or more, but it will actually also come with half the storage.”

Maxwell said it was a huge case of “shrinkflation”.

He said his business bulk bought components last year to try and slow the increases for its customers.

Why is it happening?

Chief executive and futurist at Gorilla Technology Paul Spain had been keeping an eye on this for a while.

“What we’re seeing is a situation where there’s constraints on the amount of components available for the general public, and businesses, because there’s just been so much demand for technology to go into the new AI data centers.”

But it was not as simple as a supply and demand problem.

“What’s actually used in the AI data centres is different from what we tend to use in our smartphones and our computers.

“They’ve allocated their production resource to be more focused on what’s needed in those AI data centres than what is needed in our everyday consumer and business devices.”

Spain said one of the biggest producers of tech for consumers, Micron, had withdrawn from the consumer market altogether to focus on production for AI data centres.

Which meant what RAM and SSDs were available for consumers came at a premium – giving the term ‘RAMageddon’ huge traction.

Spain said it was not a short term problem.

“We’re told it could be a number of years before this issue is resolved if the demand on AI data centres keeps up, because it takes quite some time to build or increase capacity at these manufacturing facilities.”

The shortages were moving into other components like gaming and graphics cards.

What should consumers do?

Consumer New Zealand’s product test journalist Nick Gelling said it was time to buy.

“It’s kind of we’re at the stage now where if you think that you will need to buy some tech in the next year or so you should really consider replacing it now, before the prices rise further.

“We just don’t know where this is going to go.”

He said consumers were already facing a likelihood they would be forced to pay more money for products that were worse than older models.

Maxwell agreed.

“It’s going to be a pretty hard sell if a customer’s been saving up to buy a computer that, say, was three grand in November, and then they’re finally coming around to buy it in January and February, and now that same machine is four or four and a half grand … significantly more expensive with less specs.”

He said consumers were holding off purchasing because of the huge pricing leaps.

“It’s actually having a much wider effect than just the core computer market … you’re not buying a computer anymore, so less keyboards and mice and monitors and accessories to go with are being sold.”

Paul Spain said it would also impact businesses trying to manage the equipment they needed and families who were trying to get the right devices for school and study.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

A man who threatened four drivers with a machete in Australia in a series of attempted carjackings will be deported back to New Zealand.

John Suafai Semau held a 64-year-old man in a headlock while trying to flee an accident scene in Queensland in 2022 and steal his car, and rammed that vehicle into another car who blocked his getaway.

A truck driver carrying a shovel stopped him stealing another car, which had a man, his mother and their dog inside.

His last attempted carjacking was on a woman who had just loaded her shopping when he approached with the machete.

The father of eight was jailed for four years for armed robbery, unlawful entry of motor vehicles assaulting a police officer and supplying drugs.

The Australian administrative review tribunal heard that the 38-year-old had lived in Australia about half of his life.

“The applicant drove a car into a parked car and then drove off. A 64-year-old man followed the applicant as he was driving and later approached the applicant about driving into the parked car.

“The applicant put [him] in a headlock and wrestled with him, pushing and shoving him to the ground several times. In the course of that struggle, the applicant returned to the car and retrieved a machete and held it towards the 64-year-old man.”

Witnesses watched him wave the machete in the air and strike the top of the driver’s side door frame. He got in the car, while the older man tried to stop him.

The tribunal heard the offending had been ‘highly traumatic’ to the general public.

“I raised with the applicant that death of a person was a possible consequence of further offences and he did not disagree,” said appeal decision-maker Dominique Murphy.

“It is of note that a significant proportion of the Applicant’s serious criminal offending involved him driving a car, committing offences while driving or in the course of driving.

“The use of a machete would be a terrifying experience for any person.”

Semau said he suffered a workplace accident in 2018 which resulted in him not returning to work, and the year afterwards his baby son died aged only five weeks old.

He said he collapsed internally and made reckless harmful decisions, including taking methamphetamine.

His rehabilitation and weekly counselling meant that he could be safely managed in the community under supervision because he now understood the warning signs he previously ignored.

Murphy said his removal would not be in the best interest of his children. The youngest is three and has a congenital heart condition and her five-year-old brother has level 3 autism.

“The five eldest children would be aware of the applicant’s criminal offending and his incarceration, which will have had a negative impact on those children. These children have written multiple letters and cards about their close relationship with their father and their love for him.”

But she ruled that was outweighed by the seriousness of his offending.

“The applicant, as a non-citizen who committed the serious crimes described in these reasons, should generally expect to forfeit the privilege of staying in Australia.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

A Department of Conservation (DOC) ecological report reveals that native plants are making a comeback in the blackened fire-charred areas of Tongariro National Park, but warns that invasive weeds and animal pests pose a risk to a full recovery.

One species – the Volcanic Plateau speargrass – normally hidden amongst dense, tussock, flax and mānuka scrub – has surprised scientists with its abundance.

In November, fire swept through about three thousand hectares of New Zealand’s oldest national park which is recognised as a UNESCO World Heritage site for its cultural and natural significance.

Set alight accidentally through a car tyre rim creating sparks on State Highway 47, which ignited dry roadside vegetation, some held fears for native flora and fauna in the fire zone.

DOC technical advisor and botanist, Paul Cashmore, said the park had a history of fires dating back thousands of years and would recover naturally over time.

“Essentially we’re really pleased with the level of regeneration of native species that’s occurring to date given it’s only a few months since the fire actually occurred.

“Key species such as red tussock, which is a major component of the ecosystem there, was regenerating within six months of the November fire across a really wide area.”

The fire ground also held surprises.

“Some other particular species such as our Volcanic Plateau Speargrass, which is one of our threatened native North Island endemic species that occurs in the area, appeared to have survived the fire.

“So, it appears there’s a more significant population there than we previously thought and that’s likely to increase now that there’s more open habitat available post fire.”

Cashmore, who said animal and birdlife would repatriate the fire-zone as plant species got re-established, said weeds such as broom and gorse and browsing animals such as deer, hare and possum were threats that would need monitoring.

“One of our memorable experiences in the field was walking into a completely intact stand of Hall’s tōtara, with a chorus of native birds including toutouwai/robin.

“Remnant patches of vegetation like this act as refuges where flora and fauna have survived, which can assist with natural recolonising of the burnt area.”

Ngāti Hikairo ki Tongariro rununga member Te Ngaehe Wanikau said the report was a stark reminder of the damage the fire inflicted.

“From a cultural perspective Tongariro in our eyes is our tipuna, he’s our koroua and a part of him has been impacted, so our priority first and foremost is as hau kāinga is to restore his korowai and then to work hand in hand with DOC so they can address some of the ecological impact.”

Ngāti Hikairo would play a cultural role in the recovery, identifying areas of significance to iwi members and helping to maintain the rahui.

“The rahui itself what it does is it provides firstly the required works to be done in a safe manner without public interference. It gives awareness to everybody and it keeps everybody culturally, physically and spiritually safe.”

Crucially, tracks including the Tongariro Crossing would be accessible during the 10-year rahui.

Cashmore said despite the optimistic outlook DOC and its partners still had plenty of work ahead of them.

“We’ll continue working closely with Ngāti Hikairo ki Tongariro to monitor and act, particularly where it comes to weeds and deer.”

Visitors could help by staying on the tracks.

“Walking on the burnt area can introduce new threats like weeds and can directly affect the recovery of slow growing alpine plants.

“So, if you’re keen on naturing in this World Heritage listed landscape, we ask you to respect the 10-year rāhui by keeping off the firegrounds and sticking to the marked tracks.”

Ruapehu mayor Weston Kirton said the ecological report confirmed whispers he had been hearing.

“We had a hint things were shaping up to be quite positive, but to have this confirmed by those specialists in this area is great.

“What I do understand too is that we’ve got funding from central government to the tune of over $3 million to accommodate any costs associated with weed control or planting and it could well be we have pest control as well.”

He said it was a shot in the arm for the region.

“It’s a destination, of course, well known to people. The Tongariro Crossing, for example, is part and parcel of Tongariro National Park, but also that we’ve got the tussock and we’ve got other species in that particular area and walks that go amongst all those areas.

“So, I think it’s great we are seeing some recovery sooner rather than later. We thought it was devastation and daunting the actual magnitude of the fire.”

The full police and FENZ report into the fire was yet to be released.

Police have confirmed there was no evidence of the fire being deliberately lit or criminal intent being involved.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

Should teachers give children lollies and chocolates for good behaviour?

Some do even though Health Ministry guidelines say schools should not serve sweets or chocolate at all.

A teacher RNZ agreed not to name said rewarding children with sweets was surprisingly widespread – she saw it in about 20 schools she worked in recently across Auckland and Northland.

Northland parent Kali Kahn told RNZ teachers at her son’s first school routinely rewarded children with sweet treats.

“Lollies were given out in classrooms and in the playground for good behaviour like picking up rubbish in the playground or incentives to help clean up, as rewards for good work in the classroom,” she said.

Kahn said her son’s current primary school gave chocolate and lollies as special prizes.

She said neither approach was a good idea – especially in the far north.

“I absolutely don’t think that’s okay that teachers are giving out lollies as incentives or as rewards in the classroom or outside of the classroom in the playground. Within the school grounds the school should not be providing high-sugar foods to kids,” she said.

“There’s really poor dental health amongst our children. There’s high rates of teeth extractions, there’s high rates of cavities … We have rising rates of obesity and metabolic disease in children, it’s getting younger and younger our obesity levels and diabetes levels.”

Dental Association-Colgate oral health promotion manager Anishma Ram told RNZ lollies seemed to have become a common reward at schools.

She said the association obviously opposed the practice, but it also recognised that teachers seemed to lack other options for cheap, small rewards.

“Somewhere along the line it has become so readily available that we don’t have any other option,” she said.

Northland principal Pat Newman said his school rewarded classes with iceblocks a few times a year but some teachers also gave lollies.

He did not see a problem.

“The dental health that we’ve got in Northland is not caused by the few lollies or treats that they get at school. It’s probably caused by either the heaps of lollies they get from home or the malnutrition that they’re not getting the good food that they need. Or juice. Juice is one of your big ones up here,” he said.

“My attitude is they’d have to eat a hell of a lot of what we give out at school to actually damage their teeth. If they get one iceblock every couple of weeks it’s not going to do a hell of a lot of harm. If it means that they’re at school, well they’re better off at school and learning than not.”

Newman said teachers gave rewards for good behaviour.

“Going out and seeing them doing something nice, helping someone or going out and picking up some rubbish without us telling them. What we’re doing is we’re using it more for around citizenship and also for good work, but a lot of ours is around citizenship because that’s crucial,” he said.

In Rotorua, Kaitao Intermediate principal Phil Palfrey said he opposed the use of sweets as a reward or treat.

“It gives out the wrong message. We all try and cut down the lollies our kids eat and here we are at school saying ‘oh well, we’ll give out lollies’,” he said.

He said instead of sweets, the school’s teachers constantly gave praise for hard work and good behaviour.

They also had a system of awarding cards that could be cashed in for a pizza for the class – an item that would appear to sit in the health ministry’s no-no list, but one that Phil Palfrey reckoned was okay.

“I eat a pizza once every three months and I eat pretty healthily. These kids would only get probably at the most two or three pizzas in the whole year so I don’t think that’s too bad,” he said.

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