Category: Public Media

Posted on

‘Complacency in their systems’ : Marshall predicts pressure for incumbent All Blacks

Source: Radio New Zealand

Justin Marshall. © Photosport Ltd 2019 www.photosport.nz

Former All Black halfback Justin Marshall thinks that a number of All Blacks will have a point to prove during this year’s Super Rugby Pacific season. The Sky Sport commentator said that the dramatic axing of Scott Robertson should force a mindset change among the incumbent playing group, no matter who gets the head coaching role.

“Those players probably have a bit of complacency in their systems, because they’re used to getting picked. They’re used to going out and doing what they’ve been doing for the last six years, 10 years, whatever it might be,” said Marshall, who played alongside Robertson in both the Crusaders and All Blacks.

“That coach is going to be announced, so all those players that were working under (Robertson) have to reset.

Scott Robertson. SANKA VIDANAGAMA

“Because they now have to think about ‘do I fit into this with the thinking of a new coach? Is he going to see from me every week that I want to be an All Black?’ That could be a total mindset change, and they want to make sure they’re performing each week.”

Marshall said he knows full well the position the players are in now, as he experienced several All Black head coaching changes during his 81-test career.

“I came in when Laurie Mains moved on, then John Hart moved on after the World Cup, then Wayne Smith moved on prematurely. It does make you wonder about where you sit because all of a sudden you are not communicating with that coach regularly. Where they saw you in that environment is no longer relevant because that environment doesn’t exist anymore.”

11 October, 2003. Telstra Dome, Melbourne, Australia. Rugby World Cup. Pool D. Italy v New Zealand. Justin Marshall. The All Blacks won the match, 70 -7. Pic: Andrew Cornaga/Photosport Photosport

However, Marshall doesn’t see that as a negative, rather something that will make the All Blacks and Super Rugby Pacific stronger.

“It’s good to be put in that position of pressure, particularly when you’ve been around that environment for a long time and have that familiarity of where you sit,” he said.

“Because it means that you need make sure that you’re performing and maybe showing a little bit of something that we haven’t seen out of your game in a while. That might be what the coaches are looking for.”

Marshall also made the point that the Australian players in Super Rugby Pacific will have more or less the same mindset, with Joe Schmidt set to be replaced by Queensland Reds coach Les Kiss after the Wallabies’ July Nations Cup fixtures.

“I think that’ll add a real edge to this competition as well,” he said.

NZ Rugby hasn’t set a timeline for Robertson’s replacement to be named, although it’s believed that it will be at least a month – after the Super Rugby Pacific season has commenced. The frontrunner for the job is Jamie Joseph, who is currently coaching one of the teams that will play in the first game on 13 February. His Highlanders take on the defending champion Crusaders at Forsyth Barr Stadium, so it’s likely plenty of attention will be on that fixture both on and off the field.

Marshall said the task was pretty straightforward for whoever comes in as All Black head coach.

“There’s a World Cup in two years. But what we want to stop with All Black rugby are those fluctuations in performance, which we’ve seen over the last six years.”

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

What are your rights if rain has ruined your holiday?

Source: Radio New Zealand

Storm damage in the Gisborne area. SUPPLIED

Many New Zealanders’ summer holidays have ended with a washout as wild weather battered the North Island.

Campers packed up tents, plans to travel to beach towns were abandoned and road trips turned around.

But what are your rights if you have to abandon plans?

Your accommodation

If you’ve booked an Airbnb or a hotel that you now won’t use, your rights will depend a bit on the terms and conditions you agreed to.

A spokesperson for Consumer NZ said it recommended reading these before making a booking.

“Pay particular attention to clauses about what happens if the accommodation can’t be used for reasons like a storm – this might be referred to as ‘act of God’ or ‘ force majeure’. Cancellation terms must be fair, otherwise the accommodation provider risks breaching the Fair Trading Act (FTA).”

If there is nothing in the terms and conditions to state what would happen, then people could rely on the Contract and Commercial Law Act (CCLA).

“The CCLA applies when a contract can’t be fulfilled for reasons outside the parties’ control. It gives people the right to request a refund and limits what the company can charge to reasonable administration costs.”

Consumer NZ said not all terms and conditions would be appropriate, though. If a company had given itself the right to keep a large amount of money, that was likely to be unfair.

If someone was entitled to a refund but refused it, they could ask their bank for help with a charge back.

Sometimes, you might be charged a fee to change a booking. This is allowed if it is outlined in the terms and conditions, but still needs to be reasonable.

Airbnb’s policy for cancellations in New Zealand is generally that you can have a refund if there is a severe and unforseeable event but normal bad weather won’t usually qualify unless the host agrees.

It says it encourages guests and hosts to find mutually acceptable solutions such as partial refunds or a change of dates.

Camping

The Department of Conservation said if a facility was closed due to weather, people would usually get a refund.

Visitor services manager Cameron Hyland said if the site was open but people chose not to travel because of the weather, refunds would not automatically be available.

“Weather conditions can vary and are outside DOC’s control. However, when severe weather may make travel unsafe, DOC may assess refund requests on a case-by-case basis. For example, we may consider a refund if someone was travelling through or from an area where a weather warning was in effect, even if the booked destination itself was unaffected.

“These situations are discretionary and aren’t guaranteed under DOC’s published terms and conditions. Refunds also aren’t applied automatically, customers need to contact the DOC bookings team to request one.”

Travel

Consumer NZ said if a flight was cancelled or delayed by the weather, travellers’ rights would be limited.

“For cancellations, the airline will usually offer you a credit or rebook you on the next available flight. Any additional costs you incur, such as accommodation or taxis, are on you. For ferry travel that’s disrupted by the weather, your entitlement will depend on the operator. You could be entitled to a refund, rebooking or a credit. Read the operator’s terms and conditions to see what you’re entitled to, or contact the operator directly.”

What about insurance?

You may find you have some cover if you have travel insurance.

A spokesperson for Southern Cross said it would usually cover situations where travel plans had been cancelled or postponed unexpectedly, or where costs had been incurred. It would not usually cover cases where someone had changed their mind about going.

In the year to June 2025, Southern Cross paid out more than $7000 for a tour that was cancelled because of severe weather, Consumer NZ said.

It said the top three most common claims for domestic travel were changes to journeys.

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

My ‘party boy’ days are over, says Kiwi league star Brandon Smith

Source: Radio New Zealand

Brandon Smith says is sobriety is the “best investment in my life I have ever made”. Will Palmer / www.photosport.nz

Kiwi rugby league player Brandon Smith says he has spent a month in rehab addressing his addictions to alcohol and gambling.

Speaking on The Bye Round podcast on Thursday, Smith said he had now been alcohol-free for 105 days.

“It’s the best investment in my life I have ever made,” Smith said.

Smith is currently facing drug dealing and gambling charges in a Queensland court.

“I went on a four week holiday at a rehab facility”, Smith told the podcast. “It’s something I couldn’t more highly recommend for people who are dealing with issues. Mine was alcohol and mental health, and abuse of pretty much every nature.

“Throughout the last five years of my career.. I had this identity as a party boy.. and I played up to that…

“When I came out of that facility, the whole thing was about re-identifying myself as a professional athlete. I’m not Brandon Smith, the party boy, I’m Brandon Smith, the rugby league player.”

Smith said it was his decision to go into rehab, but his South Sydney club had been supportive.

“For so long I enjoyed the rugby league and party life, but I’m a little bit allergic to alcohol now,’ Smith said. “I’m doing everything I can to stay on the straight and narrow. I attend AA (Alcoholics Anonymous) meetings and GA (Gamblers Anonymous) meetings. I do everything I can to just stay on this path.

“The life I am living right now is so much better than the life I was living this last couple of years.

“Since I’ve left (rehab), I’ve gone to at least three team functions where all the boys were having a fun time. But I managed to do it without alcohol…. I’m still an annoying larrikin, a pest of a bloke. I didn’t need alcohol to do all that. It was refreshing to know I could do it without alcohol.”

Brandon Smith celebrates with Kiwis fans after the team’s win over Australia at the then-Mt Smart Stadium in 2022. Andrew Cornaga/Photosport

Smith said he was continuing to have regular meetings with a psychologist.

He said he met a lot of great people at the rehab facility where he was only allowed access to his phone for 20 minutes a day.

He said he had been trying to focus on more healthy activities. For example, he was watching the sunrise every morning.

Smith has resumed training and said he now had no excuse not to be at his best on the field. “I could show up on Monday after a big weekend where I had 20 beers and so I understand why I feel like shit. Now I have a lot of ownership of my own performance because I’m doing all the right things.”

Smith said he hoped to rekindle the love he had for rugby league. “I’d be f…ed if I wasn’t a NRL player, it was what I was brought on earth to do!”

“I’ve had my struggles and I’m going to continue to have them, it’s never going to be smooth sailing… but I’m on the right trajectory.”

Smith did not refer directly to his criminal charges but in November, his lawyer said he would plead not guilty.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Pharmac opens consultation over funding of cystic fibrosis drugs Trikafta and Alyftrek

Source: Radio New Zealand

Cystic Fibrosis NZ

Cystic fibrosis drugs Trikafta and Alyftrek could become available for all children, regardless of age, with drug-buying agency Pharmac opening consultation on funding the two drugs.

Currently only funded for children aged six and over, Pharmac is consulting on making Trikafta available for all children with an eligible diagnosis, and fund a new treatment, Alyftrek.

It would also make the drug Kalydeco available for everyone with an eligible diagnosis.

If accepted, the proposal would effect from 1 April.

Pharmac said around 35 people were expected to benefit in the first year, increasing to 47 people after five years.

Associate health minister David Seymour, who holds minsterial responsibility for Pharmac, said the drugs were “lifechanging” for people living with cystic fibrosis, and their families.

“If approved, this proposal would give children access to these life changing treatments as soon as clinically appropriate. Cystic fibrosis can cause harm very early in life, so waiting to meet age-based eligibility criteria is not an option.”

Seymour said the proposal had already received significant support from the cystic fibrosis community, and showed Pharmac’s commitment to working with them.

“It is a great example of what is possible when Pharmac works alongside patients,” he said.

Australia’s Pharmac equivalent, the Therapeutic Goods Administration, approved funding for Alyftrek in November, for patients aged six and older.

Trikafta has been funded for children aged over six in New Zealand since April 2023.

Since then, parents of children younger than six have lobbied for Pharmac to extend eligibility. It was added to Pharmac’s Options for Investment List for two-to-five year olds late last year.

Pharmac’s pharmaceuticals director Adrienne Martin said over 400 people had benefitted so far.

“Cystic fibrosis starts causing harm very early in life. Funding these medicines for all age groups would help more young children with Cystic fibrosis live longer, healthier lives,” she said.

“Funding these treatments would also benefit the health system. People wouldn’t need to visit the hospital as often and they’d need less treatment.”

Consultation on the funding proposal closes on 11 February.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Coalition parties extend lead over left bloc in latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll

Source: Radio New Zealand

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters. RNZ / Mark Papalii

New Zealand First has soared to nearly 12 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, its highest result since the survey launched in early 2021.

The coalition parties have extended their lead over the left bloc, but Labour remains the highest polling party.

Labour, National, and New Zealand First are all up on the previous poll in December, while ACT and the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori have all taken dips.

  • Labour: 34.4 percent, up 2.8 points (43 seats)
  • National: 31.5 percent, up 1.5 (39 seats)
  • New Zealand First: 11.9 percent, up 3.8 (15 seats)
  • Greens: 7.7 percent, down 3.1 (10 seats)
  • ACT: 7.0 percent, down 1.9 (9 seats)
  • Te Pāti Māori: 3.0 percent, down 0.1 (4 seats)

For parties outside of Parliament, TOP is on 0.7 percent (-0.9 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom on 0.6 percent (-0.4 points), New Conservatives on 0.3 percent (-0.7 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.3 percent (no change).

The results would give the coalition 63 seats (up 2), while the opposition would have 57 (down 2).

The TPU-Curia poll’s calculation assumes there would be no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori, but that Te Pāti Māori would retain at least one electorate seat.

Christopher Luxon is still ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister, on 19.5 percent (down 0.2), while Hipkins is on 18.0 percent (up 0.2).

Winston Peters is on 9.7 percent (up 1.2), David Seymour is on 7.1 percent (up 1.1), and Chlöe Swarbrick is on 5.5 percent (down 2.1).

Net country direction, or ‘right track, wrong track,’ was on -16.4 percent, a drop of 9.8 points.

The survey showed 32.6 percent of people said the country was heading in the right direction (-5.7 points), while 49.0 percent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction (+4.1 points).

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 14 January and Sunday 18 January 2026. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. In 2024 it resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.

Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Ōakura Bay could be cut off for days after major Northland slips

Source: Radio New Zealand

Ōakura Bay Reserves Board member Malcolm Devereux, left, and chairman Glenn Ferguson start the cleanup of the devastated Ōakura Hall. RNZ / Peter de Graaf

Residents of Northland’s Ōakura Bay say they could be cut off for days after major slips obliterated the road to Whangārei.

Glenn Ferguson, who heads the local reserves board, said the road to the north had been closed since Sunday’s deluge washed out a bridge approach at Ngaiotonga.

Another 200mm of rain on Wednesday triggered a massive slip at Helena Bay Hill on the road south to Whangārei.

There were other, smaller slips between Helena Bay and Ōakura.

A drone image captures the massive slip at Helena Bay Hill in Northland, cutting off Ōakura Bay. Supplied / Ngātiwai Trust Board

Ferguson said the latest slip was so big it could take days to clear, but locals were in good spirits and well prepared with plenty of supplies.

“So we can’t go north, we can’t go south. We’ve had it before, and I guess we’ll have again in the future. I think it’s just part of living in paradise out here.”

He said residents were making the most of today’s sunshine to carry on cleaning up and pumping out their properties.

Ferguson said he had checked the Ōakura Community Hall on Thursday morning to see if it had suffered any further damage overnight.

The much-used, and newly renovated, hall was hit by a slip on Sunday that smashed through the back wall, poured over the stage, and filled the hall with an estimated 60 cubic metres of mud, trees and debris.

Floodwaters at Ōakura Bay as seen from the air. Supplied / Ngātiwai Trust Board

Ferguson said water was continuing to flow through the hall, but at a reduced rate, and the slip did not appear to have worsened in the overnight rain.

An insurance assessor had inspected the building before the road closed, and now it was a case of waiting for council and EQC engineers to inspect the rear of the building where it had been hit by the slip.

“They were due here on Friday, but I don’t know when they’ll be able to get though.”

The hall would likely have to be cleared out by volunteers using buckets and wheelbarrows, but it was possible sucker trucks could at least remove the mud.

Locals were upbeat and just getting on with the clean-up, Ferguson said.

“They’re out in the sunshine, we’ve got all the pumps that we can muster, and we’re pumping sections out so people get into their garages and low-lying properties so we can ascertain what’s happened.”

Floodwaters at Ōakura Bay as seen from the air. Supplied / Ngātiwai Trust Board

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Vandalism of monitoring stations putting lives at risk

Source: Radio New Zealand

Supplied / Taranaki Regional Council

Repeat vandalism and theft from flood and weather monitoring stations in Taranaki is putting lives at risk, according to the Taranaki Regional Council.

The monitoring site on the Waiwhakaiho River near The Valley in New Plymouth has been vandalised three times since its installation in 2020, and twice in the last three months.

The lower Waiwhakaiho River gauge had been repaired and police were investigating the incident which occurred on 11 January at 1.20am.

Environmental data team leader Craig Pickford said the theft and destruction of monitoring equipment could seriously impact the timeliness of alerts to the public about rising river levels when the region experiences significant weather events.

“The Waiwhakaiho River is a particularly dynamic waterway and can change very quickly after heavy rainfall so we need to be able to rely on real-time data if the river is rising and could pose a threat to those living and working nearby.

“We saw last July just how fast it can change. We had to undertake repairs after a berm near Mitre 10 was washed away as the nearby gauge recorded 535m³/sec river flow.”

Pickford said the monitoring station was now being repeatedly targeted by thieves, with the most recent incident involving the door being ripped off and the loss of equipment.

“Our message to those committing these senseless acts is to stop and think about their actions, as these stations provide the crucial information we need to keep the public informed about when to get to safety in the event of a flood.”

The regional council worked with Civil Defence Emergency Management Taranaki to alert the public about potential flooding when the region experienced heavy rainfall which Taranaki rivers to rapidly rise.

Pickford said while these events were rare, TRC maintained a number of flood defence schemes and critical monitoring stations – including on the Waiwhakaiho and Waitara rivers – to protect homes and businesses in at-risk locations which had historically been prone to flooding.

“While we accept some monitoring stations are damaged by severe weather events, it’s hard to understand why anyone would intentionally put people’s lives at risk.”

Other monitoring stations had also been the target of vandalism and theft including the Waiwhakaiho station at Rimu Street and the Mangati station at SH3.

These sites were part of a region-wide monitoring network managed by the TRC which provided real-time environmental data including rainfall, river levels, wind speed, air temperature, water quality and river flow.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Unions to challenge FENZ restructure proposal at Employment Relations Authority

Source: Radio New Zealand

PSA National Secretary Fleur Fitzsimons. RNZ

Two unions are challenging the proposed restructure of Fire and Emergency at the Employment Relations Authority in Wellington.

FENZ is proposing to cut scores of non-firefighting jobs and make changes to hundreds of other roles while saving millions of dollars.

The Professional Firefighters’ Union and the PSA said they would argue at the ERA on Thursday they were not consulted properly.

FENZ had dumped a 265-page proposal on workers last November with just 10 days to respond, PSA National Secretary Fleur Fitzsimons said.

“You can’t consult on a near-completed plan full of errors that was prepared in a process from which you completely excluded the very people the law requires you to involve,” she said in a statement.

Earlier, after union protests FENZ extended the time for feedback and delayed finalisation of the proposal from mid-December to late January.

The firefighters’ union said the restructure was “hatched secretly by a very select few, almost all with no operational experience, deliberately refusing to involve those that do the work”.

FENZ would be at Thursday’s hearing and looked forward to a productive conversation about the interpretation of the consultation clause in its collective employment agreements.

“We will continue to engage with the unions and associations through the process,” chief executive Kerry Gregory said in a statement.

The changes were aimed at enabling FENZ to respond to a rapidly changing operating environment as well as “respond to known and unknown cost pressures without asking levy-payers for more money”, he said.

“Our dedicated team does incredible work looking after New Zealand’s communities and this proposal is focused on ensuring we can continue doing that.”

The unions estimate the changes would cut 97 roles and “significantly” change 66 others, “impacting critical emergency response capability across the country”.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

Mauao campground landslide: Children missing after slip in Mount Maunganui

Source: Radio New Zealand

Several people are unaccounted for following a slip near a campsite in Mount Maunganui. Shirley Thomas

Several people are missing after a landslide came down on several structures at campground at the base of Mauao, Mount Maunganui.

Emergency Management Minister Mark Mitchell has confirmed a young girl was among the missing, and RNZ understands other children may be unaccounted for.

There are sniffer dogs at the scene as emergency services try to find anyone trapped in the slip at the Beachside Holiday Park,

The slip came down around 9.30am, hitting campervans, cars, tents and a toilet and shower blocked.

A Tauranga resident living near the campground said she watched emergency staff digging through the mud.

Robyn, who lives in an apartment nearby, said nobody had been found yet.

People were digging through the dirt for about an hour before stopping, she said.

She said she saw ambulances leaving the scene without anybody inside, but police were still at the scene.

Tauranga Mayor Mahe Drysdale said it was an evolving situation.

“We’re having to work through all the lists of those who are checked in… we don’t know the exact number.

“The ablution block is the biggest area of concern, but there is a campervan and tents that were around that area as well.”

A witness, Nix Jaques, was about to walk up the mountain when she heard an incredibly loud noise.

“I turned around and I could see the land coming down onto some structures,” she said

“There were some vehicles that were moved. It came down on an ablutions block – I believe there were some people in the showers – and it shifted a campervan, there was a family with a campervan.”

She spoke to a couple missing a child and tried to help in the early stages but said emergency services arrived quite quickly afterwards.

St John declared a major incident and there police, firefighters and ambulance workers at the scene.

Fire and Emergency’s shift manager Paul Radden said 40 firefighters, including urban search and rescue team, were responding.

The slip was in the south-eastern corner of the holiday park.

The Mount Maunganui Surf Life Saving Club was being used as a triage centre and evacuation point.

The rest of the campsite has been evacuated.

Bay of Plenty MP Tom Rutherford confirmed there were people unaccounted for.

He asked members of the public to keep those impacted in their thoughts – and not to come to the area to allow clear access for rescuers.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Posted on

The long road to November: Luxon puts time on his side

Source: Radio New Zealand

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon – with Nicola Willis – announces the general election will be held on 7 November. RNZ / Nathan Mckinnon

Analysis – In 2011, when John Key surprised voters with his early announcement of a November election, a Waikato Times cartoon captured the public mood with a reeling voter despairing “296 days of campaigning”.

Fourteen years on, Christopher Luxon has revived the November timetable and with it, perhaps the same reaction.

This time, at least, our emblematic voter has just 290-odd days to endure.

One would not want to overstate the lateness of the date. Since the advent of MMP, New Zealand has held one election in July, three in September, three in October and three in November.

So November is not exceptional. It is, however, on the later side of the ledger and leaves a long runway between now and polling day.

Asked about his motivations, Luxon danced around the question, calling November the “logical” choice given the options available on the calendar and various competing occasions.

He eventually conceded that “every day makes a difference” to the economic recovery.

ACT’s leader and deputy prime minister David Seymour was a bit more candid: “I think it’s only fair that people get to judge the government on the benefits of its policies delivered before they choose.”

In other words: a later election gives the government more time for the emerging “green shoots” to fully bloom – and for voters to feel the economic recovery in their wallets.

Treasury forecasts are picking GDP to pick up in the back half of the year, with unemployment beginning to trend down.

The coalition parties are banking on that improvement feeding through into confidence, optimism, and ultimately votes. Support for the status quo.

It’s not an unreasonable assumption – if those forecasts do indeed eventuate. The past few years have proved how fragile those forecasts can be.

The flipside to the late date is that it also leaves plenty of time and opportunity for things to go awry, either at home or abroad.

Few would bet against US President Donald Trump throwing a spanner in the works and upsetting the road back to recovery.

The still-unfolding Greenland negotiations are a fresh reminder of how quickly overseas shocks can derail domestic recoveries.

Closer to home, the long runway also allows more time for internal coalition tensions to mount, undermining Luxon’s claims on providing “strong, stable government”.

Late last year gave just a taster of that building friction as Winston Peters vowed to repeal ACT’s Regulatory Standards Act. David Seymour fired back, effectively accusing him of disloyalty.

That stoush will not be the last. All three coalition parties will be under pressure to differentiate themselves throughout the year.

And then there are the persistent leadership murmurings, with every day another chance for the various caucus factions to contemplate the polls and their futures.

Luxon is banking on his ability to keep all those variables in check right up to voting day.

The other point to make is that 7 November does not leave much time at all for negotiations to form a government before Christmas.

The final results are not expected until 20 days after polling day, and in 2023 coalition talks dragged on for another 20 days beyond that.

A similar timetable this year would push the finish line to around 17 December which is well into the festive season.

And that’s assuming the talks are as straightforward as last time. Current polling points to a razor-sharp contest and the potential for more complicated arrangements than last time.

Forget the despairing cartoon voter. Politicians and party staffers would do well now to cancel their Christmas plans.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand