Wellington has NZ’s cheapest homes, Herne Bay still the most expensive suburb

Source: Radio New Zealand

Central Wellington has the cheapest homes in the country, property data firm Cotality says. RNZ / REECE BAKER

Central Wellington has the cheapest homes in the country, property data firm Cotality says, but Newmarket has had the biggest fall in values over the past five years.

It has released its end-of-year data, which it said showed a year of stagnation, with lower mortgage rates helping improve sales volumes but a sluggish economy and weak labour market keeping values down.

Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said despite an extended “flat patch” for values, there had been activity happening.

“First-home buyers have remained very strong, hovering as high as 28 percent to 29 percent of overall purchasing activity, while 2025 has also seen a comeback by mortgaged multiple property owners.”

The data showed that Herne Bay remained the most expensive suburb in the country, with a median value of $2.6 million. It was followed by nearby Westmere and Ponsonby, at $2.2m, and Remuera at $2m.

Arrowtown and Tamahere, Waikato, were the only suburbs outside Auckland in the top 10 most expensive.

Greymouth had the biggest increase in prices over five years, up nearly 60 percent.

This was closely followed by Somerfield, Christchurch, and Hokitika, both experiencing increases of nearly 50 percent over the same five-year period.

Davidson said most of the places where prices had risen strongly were more affordable to start with, including rural locations, small towns, or lower-priced suburbs within larger main centres.

“There are two outliers, however, which are Jacks Point and Lake Hayes; both high-end suburbs in Queenstown, whose popularity among affluent buyers may have contributed to their stronger growth in 2025,” he said.

“Nowhere is booming but it’s all relative… Invercargill is a good example of that, too. Property has been moving quickly in Invercargill. There’s certainly a degree of resilience around Invercargill and that wider southern area.”

Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson. SUPPLIED

The biggest price fall in a year was in Oneroa, Auckland, down 7.9 percent in a year. It was followed by Omaha down 5.7 percent. Atawhai, Nelson was the only non-Auckland suburb in the top 10 lowest value movements.

Newmarket had the biggest fall in prices over five years, down 15.8 percent, followed by Te Aro down 15 percent and Petone down 13.2 percent.

Wellington central was the most affordable region this year, with a median value of $318,706, followed by $353,942 in Taumarunui, $365,347 in Westport and $365,657 in Auckland Central.

Davidson said Wellington central was affected by being an “apartment market”. “Apartments just carry lower values than standalone houses. I’d put most of it down to the composition of the market … but there is a role to play for the downturn in Wellington.

“Wellington central was priced a lot higher four or five years ago. Wellington, let’s face it, has been a pretty soft market.”

He said the only suburbs included were those with at least 1000 dwellings so there could be smaller parts of the country with lower values again.

He said Auckland was notable in that it had most of the highest-value suburbs but was also home to some of the weaker performing areas.

“There is still an affordability challenge in Auckland and the fact that housing is still a bit of a stretch. You’ve had a sluggish sort of economy and economic confidence around Auckland, as well as a decent supply pipeline still coming through.

“All those things are consistent with each other. So you can have high value real estate, but of course, the flip side of that is that affordability is still a challenge, and that’s been a handbrake on growth this year.”

He said the question now would be what happened next year.

“There seem to be those fundamentals coming together for a bit more growth in prices, but maybe not a fresh Covid-style boom.”

Rents had generally been soft through the year, he said.

“Given the continued decline in net migration, we’ve also seen rents have weakened this year. There have been outright falls in markets such as Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch which don’t happen often, so it’s been a tricky period for any investor looking to boost their income. Of course, it’s been a more favourable period for tenants.”

Renters in Gladstone, Invercargill, had the biggest increase in rents in the year, up 18 percent, followed by 17.3 percent in Waipawa, and 16.9 percent in Timaru. Long Bay in Auckland had the biggest rent drop, down 17.1 percent, followed by Hilltop in Taupō down 13.8 percent and Ngaio in Wellington down 13 percent.

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26,000 New Zealanders’ devices infected with malicious software, cyber security agency warns

Source: Radio New Zealand

By Penny Smith

The cyber security agency is emailing about 26,000 people warning about malware which could steal sensitive information, like email addresses and passwords. 123RF

The country’s cyber agency is alerting tens of thousands of New Zealanders that their device has been infected with malicious software.

The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) was sending emails to around 26,000 email addresses on Wednesday warning about the malware Lumma Stealer, which was designed to steal sensitive information like email addresses and passwords.

Some of the stolen passwords were connected to government agency systems and bank accounts.

The NCSC’s chief operating officer, Michael Jagusch, said it was the first time the agency had contacted so many people.

“We have worked with New Zealand government agencies and financial institutions to help protect their affected customers. However, there is a large group of users we are now contacting directly,” he said.

“Malicious software like this is relatively common, but this is a very significant amount of New Zealanders that we know have been impacted by this and that’s why we are doing the outreach at this scale.”

Lumma Steeler was designed to go undetected and typically infected devices using Microsoft Windows operating systems.

“The malware’s purpose is to give these cybercriminals information that might let them gain access to your account and ultiumately these cyber criminals are looking to steal money,” Jagusch said.

“They might also use the information for further attacks … They might be able to create more tailored phishing emails against you and your family.”

Jagusch said it’s unlikely the affected people were targeted.

“These people would have unknowingly downloaded the software by clicking a link within a phising email or downloading the software from a compromised website,” he said.

Jagusch added that Lumma Stealer was available for purchase on the dark web.

“There has been a real commercialisation of the cyber crime industry, meaning that malware like this can be purchased by anyone, anywhere in the world,” he said.

The NCSC was alerted to the attack through an international threat sharing forum.

The agency wanted people who received the email to go to its Own Your Online website for advice on what to look for and how to remove the malware, or to contact an IT provider for help.

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Drunk Nelson teen died in crash while fleeing police out on another job

Source: Radio New Zealand

A Nelson teenager was fleeing police at about 183 kilometres per hour, but the officer was on his way to another job. RNZ/ Marika Khabazi

A Nelson teenager was fleeing police at about 183 kilometres per hour when she lost control of the vehicle and smashed into a tree.

Tieylr Saige Ayrton, 17, died from a head injury sustained in the crash on Rutherford Street in March 2022.

The girl was under the influence of alcohol and driving on a restricted driver licence in the early hours of the morning. Her two passengers suffered serious injuries in the crash.

Coroner Megan Armistead, in findings released on Wednesday, said Ayrton’s death was avoidable and highlighted the dangers of driving while intoxicated and the importance of complying with restricted licence conditions.

The Transport Agency said drivers on a restricted licence were seven times more likely to be involved in a fatal or serious injury crash than other drivers, partly due to inexperience.

Two of the riskiest situations for young drivers were driving at night and carrying passengers, the agency said.

Armistead said excessive speed, impairment from alcohol and driver inexperience were contributing factors in the crash.

“The Toyota was travelling at more than three times the speed limit prior to the crash and more than twice the speed limit at the point of impact,” the coroner said.

Fleeing a police officer heading to another callout

Ayrton was driving north on Waimea Road towards central Nelson in a Toyota Mark-X sedan about 1.30am on 13 March 2022.

At the same time a police dog handler, driving a marked police dog vehicle conducting mobile patrols in Stoke, received a call for assistance with a disorder incident on Bridge Street, Nelson.

The officer decided to provide backup for the incident and drove towards central Nelson from Stoke. He increased his speed and activated his red and blue lights.

Ayrton was travelling about 63 kilometres per hour on Waimea Road before the police car approached.

The police officer attempted to overtake Ayrton on an uphill section of the road near Nelson Hospital. But the teenager increased her speed and did not attempt to pull over or allow the police car to pass.

The officer told the coroner he realised the Toyota’s driver was not going to allow him to pass, so he deactivated his red and blue flashing lights and began slowing down.

Ayrton continued to accelerate and reached 183 kilometres per hour before braking ahead of a left-hand curve into Rutherford Street.

The car was travelling about 112 kilometres per hour as it entered the curve and Ayrton lost contol of the vehicle, crossed the centre line and crashed into a tree on Rutherford Street at approximately 106 kilometres per hour.

The police officer rounded the corner soon after and saw the car on fire.

He stopped, ran to the vehicle and put the fire out before attempting to remove those inside.

Members of the public and the officer were able to free one person from the car.

Firefighters arrived and began working to free Ayrton and the other passenger.

An ambulance arrived at 1.50am but Ayrton was unresponsive and died at the scene. The two passengers were taken to Nelson Hospital.

Crash investigation findings

Police carried out a Critical Incident Review into the circumstances of the Toyota fleeing the police vehicle.

It found the officer was not in pursuit of the Toyota and when he realised the Toyota was fleeing from him he followed police policy and procedure by immediately turning off his lights and siren, slowing down and informing the police communications centre.

The Independent Police Conduct Authority resolutions manager Cath Anyan said it was notified of the crash but did not consider an independent investigation was necessary nor was it considered necessary to oversee a police investigation.

A report from the Serious Crash Unit found no contributing factors relating to the vehicle, environment, the road or its layout and markings.

Investigators analysed the CCTV footage from NZTA cameras, a speed monitoring sign on Waimea Road, data from the airbag control module fitted to the Toyota, independent witness accounts and tyre abrasion markings. They found while crossing over the Van Diemen Street intersection on Waimea Road, the Toyota was travelling at approximately 183 kilometres per hour.

The police car was approximately 580 metres behind and not displaying flashing lights.

Tasman District serious crash analyst Senior Constable Simon Burbery said the bend into Rutherford Street had a critical curve speed (the maximum speed a vehicle could take a curve before losing control) of 65 kilometres per hour but the car was travelling almost 50 kilometres per hour more than that when it entered the bend.

The investigation also found the Toyota’s brakes were engaged on and off from more than 200 metres before the crash site, but the rate of deceleration was low.

Ayrton was barefoot at the time of the crash and Burbery noted a pair of jandals found in the driver’s footwell could have become stuck under the brake pedal while she was driving, which could have prevented the brakes from being fully applied.

Unfortunately, due to damage to the Toyota, the investigators could not carry out further analysis of that matter and the coroner said there was insufficient evidence to establish if it had been a contributing factor.

Ayrton was found to have a blood alcohol reading of 153 milligrams per 100 millilitres – more than three times the limit for drivers over 20. However, drivers under 20 years of age are not allowed any alcohol.

Ayrton had held a restricted driver licence since September 2021. The conditions of the licence meant she was not allowed to carry passengers or drive between the hours of 10pm and 5am.

Tasman road policing manager Inspector Martin Tunley said every fatal crash was a tragedy and police were aware that behind every death on the roads was a grieving family.

“My thoughts are with Tielyr’s loved ones. I’d also like to acknowledge our officer and the members of the public who, arriving moments after the crash, were confronted with this terrible scene and did everything they could to save Tielyr and comfort her friends.”

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Three double-bunk deaths at Mt Eden prison in a year

Source: Radio New Zealand

Mt Eden prison staff found a prisoner had been injured at 10.40am on 29 November. File photo. RNZ/Calvin Samuel

A homicide investigation is under way after an inmate died 10 days after allegedly being assaulted by his cellmate at Mt Eden prison.

The man’s death is the third homicide investigation involving inmates in double-bunk cells at the prison since September last year.

The death comes amid a Corrections review of a risk assessment tool used in deciding whether prisoners are suitable to share a cell, after the two earlier suspected murders.

Mt Eden Corrections Facility (MECF) general manager Dion Paki earlier told RNZ that staff found a prisoner had been injured at 10.40am on 29 November.

Do you know more? Email sam.sherwood@rnz.co.nz

The inmate was assessed by on-site medical and taken to hospital.

“The alleged perpetrator was immediately secured and placed on directed segregation.”

Detective Senior Sergeant Martin Friend told RNZ the victim died in Auckland City Hospital on Tuesday.

Police have continued inquiries since late November, which will now become a homicide inquiry.

“Our thoughts are with the man’s family at this difficult time,” Friend said.

Police inquiries into the man’s death would continue, with results of a post-mortem pending.

MECF acting general manager Edith Pattinson acknowledged the man’s death had been a “difficult and distressing time for his loved ones and our thoughts remain with them”.

“Police are investigating and Corrections is also carrying out a full review into this incident. An investigation by the independent Corrections Inspectorate will also be carried out. If these investigations and reviews identify areas where we need to strengthen our processes, we are absolutely committed to acting on these with urgency.

“We can confirm the victim was in a shared cell and that the suitability of this placement is part of our review into this matter. Understandably, the victim’s family will have questions they would like answered. We have been in regular contact with the man’s family, and once our review is complete we will share the findings of this with them when we’re able to do so.”

Corrections’ review would look into what risk assessments were done such as the Shared Accommodation Cell Risk Assessment (SACRA).

“Our frontline staff manage approximately 10,900 prisoners who are some of New Zealand’s most difficult and dangerous people.

“We take our duty to manage prisoners safely extremely seriously and are acutely aware that there have been several incidents at MECF in the past year alleged to have involved prisoners in shared cells.”

The Not to Double Bunk (NTDB) Policy has been updated in Corrections’ Prison Operations Manual to ensure staff were better supported in making informed decisions around adding, managing, and removing NTDB alerts, Pattinson said. Multi-Disciplinary Team meetings were also now required for reviewing and validating NTDB alerts.

“In addition, Corrections is undertaking a review of the SACRA process across the prison estate to ensure it is robust and as safe as possible. This review is now in its final stages, and again we are committing to acting on any changes needed with urgency.”

RNZ earlier revealed there had been two suspected murders, both involving double-bunked cells, in nine months at the prison.

Corrections use the SACRA tool to review the compatibility of individuals before they were placed in a shared cell.

The SACRA tool identified key risk factors to consider before placing a person in a shared cell.

If a person was deemed not suitable to double bunk, a Not to Double Bunk (NTDB) alert was activated on their profile.

Corrections custodial services commissioner Leigh Marsh earlier confirmed he requested a review of the SACRA process which was under way.

“The review is in its early stages, so we have limited information to provide at this stage.

“However, we can confirm that our Custodial, Pae Ora and Intel teams will be considering the questions asked to inform suitability, the process to determine compatibility, and the review processes relating to SACRA. This will help inform what improvements can be made to the SACRA process.”

Corrections had also taken steps across all prison sites regarding shared cell risk assessments, including instructing that all assessments must be reviewed within 24 hours of completion to check whether any further or outstanding information had been received.

“This is because we often receive people from the courts late in the evening and information can sometimes be limited.”

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Judge deciding whether Papatoetoe will face rare by-election

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ / Liu Chen

A district court judge has reserved his decision on whether a by-election is needed in an Auckland local body election.

The hearing followed a petition by former Ōtara-Papatoetoe Local Board member Lehopoaome Vi Hausia, who claimed to have received reports of voting papers being stolen from residents and submitted without their consent.

Dale Ofsoske, an independent electoral officer for Auckland, was the respondent to the petition.

At a preliminary hearing at Manukau District Court in November, Judge Richard McIlraith ordered five ballot boxes containing votes from the electorate to be transferred from Auckland District Court, where they were being kept, to Manukau for scrutineering in the presence of Judge McIlraith, legal counsel for Hausia and Ofsoske, as well as Ofsoske himself.

Seventy-nine voting papers were subsequently identified during examination as having been cast without the rightful voter’s knowledge.

At Monday’s hearing, legal counsel for Ofsoske acknowledged there had been irregularities in some of the ballots cast.

McIlraith said a ruling on the petition would be made before Christmas.

Lodged under the Local Electoral Act, the petition by the former deputy chair of the Ōtara-Papatoetoe Local Board who failed to be re-elected also alleged statistical anomalies in turnout, misuse of ballot papers, irregularities involving special votes, discrepancies in voter records, unlawful campaign activity and systemic weaknesses in the postal model.

Papatoetoe was the only Auckland electorate to record a significant rise in turnout in the latest local body election.

While other Auckland areas saw turnout drop, voting numbers in Papatoetoe increased by more than 7 percent.

None of the previous members were returned. All four seats went to first-time candidates from the Papatoetoe Ōtara Action Team.

The petition argued that the result was inconsistent with historic voting patterns and warranted examination.

Simon Mitchell, legal counsel for Hausia, highlighted the sharp rise in the number of votes in Papatoetoe.

“We say there are 3000 new votes in the Papatoetoe subdivision,” he said on Monday.

“And that is the only subdivision or local board area in the entire Auckland city that has had an increase in voting. Every other local board had a decrease in voting.”

Mitchell argued that the irregularities and unexplained surge in voting in Papatoetoe could only be explained by mass voter fraud.

Judge McIlraith acknowledged the seriousness of the allegations but asked for evidence supporting claims of thousands of unlawful ballots.

Mitchell said one police case had been made regarding theft and argued that a surge in votes was not the consequence of a “sudden interest in democracy”.

He also noted that, had the winning candidates engaged in the process, conclusions might have been drawn from their perspectives about the sudden increase in voting in the area.

No one from the Papatoetoe Ōtara Action Team, which won all four seats in the board’s Papatoetoe subdivision, was present at Monday’s hearing.

Mitchell said the irregularities could undermine public confidence in the electoral system.

Judge McIlraith said that if Mitchell’s allegations were proven, it would confirm “everyone’s worst nightmare regarding the efficacy of the [postal] system had come true”.

David Collins, representing Ofsoske, argued that case law did not automatically justify overturning the election.

He said Hausia lost by roughly 1200 votes, and alleged fraud might not have materially affected the result, according to the law.

Collins also argued there could be several reasons why constituents did not receive their ballot papers that had nothing to do with mass fraud.

Residents could have changed addresses, not have been enrolled in the first place, or the ballot papers could have been collected by someone else.

The hearing concluded on Tuesday.

Andrew Geddis, a law professor at the University of Otago, said the situation was “certainly very worrying” because it called into question the trustworthiness of the postal voting system used in local elections.

“[The petition] highlights some vulnerabilities in that practice and, ultimately, it does raise the question as to the methods that were used to determine the results in the election in question and whether everything that was done in this election was lawful,” he said.

Geddis said such petitions were rare in local elections, as petitioners must convince a judge of potential issues and cover their own legal costs.

Under the Local Electoral Act, a by-election could be called if enough unlawful votes were proven to have changed the outcome.

“The problem here is that the victors of the election won by about 1200 votes,” he said. “So, you would have to prove that there was a very widespread pattern of unlawful voting.”

Geddis said it was unclear whether a judge, if unable to prove whether enough unlawful votes could have changed the outcome, would let the result stand or could void the election due to public distrust in the process.

“I would hope it’s an option that’s available because it would be pretty bad, I think, to have a judicial inquiry that finds, yes, there were widespread irregularities, but the judge just has to let the results stand,” he said. “I think that would be a bad outcome.”

Geddis said by-elections that stemmed from election petitions were rare, and that all candidates were free to run again.

He also said the result of an electoral petition was final.

The Ōtara-Papatoetoe Local Board has two subdivisions, with the Ōtara having three seats and Papatoetoe four.

None of the previous local board members of the Papatoetoe subdivision were re-elected.

Separately, police have confirmed they are investigating 16 complaints of electoral fraud that had been forwarded to them from Election Services.

Last month, RNZ received a complaint alleging “electoral malpractice” in relation to the Ōtara-Papatoetoe Local Board.

In addition to voting paper theft, it claimed voters were being told how to vote inside polling booths and in public places at a Sikh temple in Papatoetoe.

Speaking to Local Democracy Reporting earlier, Papatoetoe-Ōtara Action Team spokesperson Kunal Bhalla rejected the allegations, describing them as “baseless and politically motivated”.

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NZDF wants to build ground terminals for military satellite system

Source: Radio New Zealand

File photo. 123rf

The NZ Defence Force wants to put in ground terminals next year for its main military satellite system.

It has put out a tender to advise suppliers about 19 projects it is considering over the next year to 18 months.

These range from ground terminals for America’s Wideband Global satellite network, to an infantry training facility, to an emergency management communications system for the Air Force in Auckland.

It noted the projects were not funded yet.

The US has been asking its partners to help pay to add two new satellites worth hundreds of millions each to the 10-strong network. It provides communication links between the Pentagon and combatant commanders, and NATO forces, among others.

New Zealand has put more than $100m into helping build the network since 2012.

A note about the ground terminals said they had been planned for the end of 2025, but this had shifted to next year.

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ACC backs down on less flexible remote working policy

Source: Radio New Zealand

Workers strike outside an ACC building in Wellington in July. Samuel Rillstone

ACC has backed down on plans to require staff to work in the office three days a week, rather than two.

The agency said following consultation with workers and careful consideration of their feedback, it decided to maintain current settings of two days in the office each week.

Earlier this week, the Public Service Association said it had written to the Commerce Commission, seeking an investigation into ACC for breaching the Fair Trading Act.

It said that in its job ads, ACC promoted working from home three days a week as a key benefit of working there – and was looking to break that promise.

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Tongariro National Park huts and tracks reopen after fire

Source: Radio New Zealand

A major blaze burned through 296 hectares of vegetation at Tongariro National Park. Supplied / Alister McDermid and Joanna Finlayson

Tongariro National Park’s huts and tracks will reopen on Wednesday, following a major fire.

The blaze that broke out on Monday burned through 296 hectares of vegetation.

Fire and Emergency has since declared the fire completely contained, and the park’s tracks and huts safe.

The Department of Conservation (DoC) said the Tongariro Alpine Crossing, the Northern Circuit, and all walks in and around Whakapapa Village were now open.

State Highway 47 had also re-opened, but was restricted to one lane.

DoC requested visitors use shuttle operators to limit the amount of traffic, as fire trucks were still moving through the area.

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Financial watchdog wants companies to act on reviews without any new legal obligations

Source: Radio New Zealand

Financial Markets Authority executive director of licensing and conduct supervision Clare Bolingford. Supplied

The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) wants financial institutions to learn from each other when it comes to doing the best by their customers.

The FMA’s review of reviews provided by 10 deposit takers and 10 insurers was expected to be treated as an industry guide for continuous improvement, without creating any new legal obligations.

“When financial institutions proactively review products and services, they can identify and respond to consumer harms, and help promote improvements in the provision of financial services that meet the needs of consumers,” FMA executive director of licensing and conduct supervision Clare Bolingford said.

“There’s a developing area around action-tracking. So it’s great to have done the review, but are you following it up and are you making sure that you’re fixing any issues that you found?”

She said the insurance firm, Tower, was an example of a company that self-reported a mistake in overcharging customers more than $11 million, but then failed to fix the problem in a timely manner.

“It really hammers home how important these reviews are, not just in terms of conducting the reviews in a timely way and finding issues, but also making sure those issues are addressed quickly so that harms don’t occur in the future.”

The FMA ended up bringing a civil case against Tower over its failiure to fix the problems quickly, which resulted in it being fined $7m for misleading and overcharging 61,000 cusotmers.

“It’s important that firms get on top of these things quickly. We know mistakes happen. Errors are going to occur. It’s about how you fix and address them, and then communicate clearly with people that builds trust with the industry and to make sure that customers get a good deal.”

She said companies should also do more to settle disputes with consumer.

“We saw some good practice around the use of complaints and speaking with different stakeholders, but felt the dispute resolution services were overlooked as a source of insights as well.”

Bolingford said accountability and oversight was also something that needed attention.

“Strengthening governance and board reporting to ensure accountability and oversight is key, as is improving consumer communication strategies to build trust and transparency,” she said.

“And finally, companies should ensure they have established clear processes for tracking and implementing review outcomes, including post-review monitoring.”

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The OCR is down, so why are home loans rising?

Source: Radio New Zealand

Westpac says it is increasing its home loans over two- to five-year terms by 30 basis points. 123rf

Wholesale rates are getting the blame for the fact that two weeks after the official cash rate was cut, one major bank has increased some of its fixed-term home loan rates.

Westpac said on Tuesday it was increasing its home loans over two- to five-year terms by 30 basis points.

That takes a two-year fix to 4.75 percent.

At the same time, it is reducing its six-month rate by 20 basis points, to 4.69 percent.

Before the latest OCR decision, wholesale markets had virtually priced in one more cut.

So when the Reserve Bank indicated it thought another cut might not be needed, wholesale rates ticked up.

Westpac said wholesale rates were 40 basis points higher than they were the day before the OCR announcement.

Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said there was a chance that the wholesale rate increase was a bit of an overreaction.

“You look before the Reserve Bank’s announcement in late November, you know, markets were keen on another cut. Not fully, but leaning in that direction. Then with the Reserve Bank’s nonchalant, through-the-middle view of ‘look there’s not probably a lot left in the system’, which is not too dissimilar to what they said before, markets have gone ‘oh it’s time to start thinking about the up’. It does seem like a bit of a reversal of position there. I do worry a bit that the markets have shifted pretty quickly from one to the other.”

He said people might be confused that the OCR had fallen while retail rates had risen, but there had never been a direct correlation. “We’re now at the turning point where you’re starting to see adjustments across the board.”

It would be interesting to see what other banks did, he said. “Does everyone follow because they’re facing the same sort of pressure but no one has moved yet? Or do you see a few banks go well actually maybe I have to make an adjustment but maybe not the full adjustment because then I drive a bit more of a wedge between me and other offers. It’s not clear what it means for the entire market yet.”

It had been noticeable that there were not major rate movements before the OCR, he said.

There may still be room for banks to absorb some increase on wholesale margins.

The main banks have a net interest margin of about 2.4 percent or 2.5 percent, roughly the same as they had a year ago but higher than the 2.1 percent KPMG reported them having in 2019.

Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said it could mean a “rubbish” Christmas for retailers if people were worried about rates rising again, and the Reserve Bank might have to cut again in February. He said other banks would probably follow. “The great mortgage war taught them not to compete on price – no changes in market share and a drop in profits.”

Commentators have been saying for some time that it could be worth considering a longer-term home loan fix because rates might be about as low as they would go.

Late last month, ANZ’s economists said it was too soon to say with confidence when rates might start increasing.

“The key point for now is that wholesale rates have stopped falling. Competition is clearly hotting up, with banks offering cash incentives to switch and that will be welcome news to borrowers,” they said.

“But when it comes to which term to select, our broad thinking remains as it was a month ago: we believe mortgage rates are likely at or near their lows, and that it is thus worth considering longer terms. With very little separating rates spanning from one to five years, borrowers with differing levels of risk appetite should be able to find a term that satisfies their own cost/certainty trade-off sensitivities.”

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