Why ‘digital price tags’ at the supermarket are causing concerns

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ / Nate McKinnon

The increasing use of digital price tags could allow supermarkets to use AI algorithms and ‘dynamic pricing’ where prices change in real time, a competition researcher says.

The government’s amendment to the Commerce Act, included increasing the Commerce Commission’s powers in combating predatory pricing , clarifying merger processes, and modernising the rules around new technologies, including AI.

University of Sydney researcher Lisa Asher says legislation should block the use of dynamic pricing in supermarkets.

She told Nine to Noon supermarkets in the United States were using data about customers to change pricing in online shopping.

Asher says legislation planned for New Zealand does not go far enough to stop the same happening here.

Woolworths New Zealand says it does use electronic shelf labelling in almost all stores, but it does not use dynamic or any personalisation in pricing.

“ESL is about more accurately displaying the prices we advertise. Instead of changing thousands of paper tickets every week across our 185 stores, we can update prices using ESL,” the company said in a statement. .

“We do not use dynamic pricing. We do not have any personalisation in our pricing.”

supermarket price errors supplied

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A rival to the cheese roll? The story of the Hawke’s Bay meatball

Source: Radio New Zealand

This story was first published ahead of the 2025 Meatball Festival. From Friday to Sunday Hastings will host the second annual Meatball Festival. First Up spoke to the town’s chief meatball officer.

Those unfamiliar with Hawke’s Bay’s humble meatball imagine Italian mince with red sauce. The actual description isn’t that mouth-watering, but the crumbed golden sphere filled with whipped, fatty meat offers an unexpected yet comforting morning tea delight.

Unlike its celebrated sibling, the Southland cheese roll, the Hawke’s Bay meatball has remained a local treat on the East Coast – a fact that irks me as a self-declared meatball enthusiast and a champion of its supernatural creaminess.

Growing up in Te Matau-a-Māui, a white bakery paper bag, translucent with oil, was a symbol of a trip to town and a meatball. Friends who now live abroad insist the moment they touch down on Napier’s tarmac it’s time to visit BJs bakery for a meatball.

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NZ travel agents helping clients escape Middle East conflict

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ

Travel agents are helping their New Zealand clients get out of the Middle East.

It has been almost a week since the US and Israel began bombing Iran, which is carrying out retaliatory strikes on US bases and embassies.

Most commercial flights are not operating, with much of the region’s airspace closed.

Paul Diamond from Wendy Wu Tours said the company was helping to evacuate six New Zealand clients from Egypt.

“They were due to carry on through to Jordan. But obviously, with the travel warnings out, we decided that it was only right for the safety of the passengers to cancel the Jordan part of the trip and to find ways to get them home early.”

He said the clients were booked on upcoming flights from Cairo to Auckland via China.

He said one of their clients was not able to evacuate via London because of recent changes to immigration rules, meaning dual citizens can no longer use a foreign passport to enter the UK.

“We couldn’t reroute them back through the UK because even though they were born in Britain, they didn’t have a British passport with them. They only had their New Zealand passport. With the new immigration changes, EgyptAir told us that they wouldn’t be able to get on the flight to transit through London because they would have had to go through customs.”

He said they had rerouted or cancelled all tours going through the Middle East since the conflict broke out, affecting about 500 of their clients across New Zealand, Australia, and the UK so far.

“We won’t operate our tours, and we won’t send passengers through any country if there is a travel warning that says to avoid non-essential travel. We always cancel our tours and make other arrangements while those warnings are in place.

“We’re going to see a lot of disruption, not just for us, but for a lot of people looking to travel to Europe that have got their tickets booked with Middle Eastern carriers, which, since Covid, have been one of our main routes to get New Zealanders over to Europe.”

Flight Centre general manager Heidi Walker said some New Zealanders had been able to get on flights from Dubai to Sydney.

Flight Centre NZ general manager Heidi Walker. Supplied / Flight Centre

“We’ve been in daily correspondence with Emirates in New Zealand and many of the other airlines as well. They’ve been helping us get people onto the limited flights that are departing. Emirates has managed to get a few flights from Dubai into Australia, and those have been really beneficial to everyone trying to get out of there.”

She could not say how many clients were in the Middle East currently, but about 100 had planned to travel via Dubai in March.

“We’re reaching out to those customers who have booked with us to make sure that we can find the best solution for them. Everyone is a little bit different about what they want to do and where they need to get to.

“We are saying to everybody to make their own decisions, to not rush into any decisions. We’re trying to give them all the information that we have and refer them to where they can find information about the safety of the destination that they’re travelling to.”

She said there was no firm date on when Dubai to Auckland flights would resume.

“The message from Emirates, which I fully support, is that when it is safe to be able to travel, then they will look at that. But until the point where it’s safe, they won’t be resuming those flights.

“At the moment, the Dubai-Sydney flights are definitely filling our requirement to help New Zealanders out of Dubai.”

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Why travel insurance might not help right now

Source: Radio New Zealand

Travellers are being warned to check what they are actually covered for by insurance. RNZ

Travellers are being warned to check what they are actually covered for by insurance if they cancel travel plans due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Insurance and Financial Services Ombudsman Karen Stevens said people should make sure they understood what they could claim for before they cancelled their insurance policies.

The conflict had closed many areas of airspace and meant a number of flights had been cancelled.

Many travel policies do not cover anything to do with the outbreak of war, civil disobedience or riot. That includes flights, accommodation or rebooking costs.

“I think most people don’t think about how the insurance is going to respond before they cancel,” Stevens said.

“They’ve got to be very careful before they just go ahead and cancel things.”

She said people should talk to their airlines first, or their accommodation providers, to see if they could get a refund or credit, or change their arrangements.

“A lot of people are still travelling or want to continue to travel, it’s just that because of the travel alerts and so forth and because of what’s going on in the Middle East they can’t go that way.

“But a much better suggestion for them is to actually start with the airline than it is to just cancel and then think that they can rely on the insurance cover because in most cases they will not be able to.”

Insurance would also not cover situations where people cancelled out of concern.

She said her scheme had dealt with many situations in which people had changed their minds about travelling and not been able to claim.

Stevens said she expected to receive complaints.

“I think to try and avoid those complaints, the best thing people can do is understand what they are covered for before they make any claims or before they decide to do anything about the travel arrangements. They really need to know if the insurer is going to provide the cover or they’re going to say an outright no as soon as the claim is made.”

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Reverse mortgage or retirement village: Which will give you the retirement you want?

Source: Radio New Zealand

Jo Murphy says she very much regrets moving into a retirement village as early as she did.

She said she sold her freehold home at least 15 years too soon.

“It was a neat little brick home on a nice quiet side road in Waikanae… the garden and the drive took hard work to keep tidy but I was fit and well, I had established some beloved plants. The labour – with hindsight – was beneficial and the property looked good too.

“Maybe I was simply lonelier than I thought … I had lots of activities so I didn’t put my finger on it being loneliness.

“I badly wanted to take that reverse mortgage but I also was thinking about my daughter who’s clued up on finances. She was a senior dealer for a while in the money market, and I could feel her disapprobation… so I stalled.”

She has since moved through three retirement villages in two parts of the country and said her capital had been eroded to the point where she could not buy another home if she left. The villages charged an initial fee for an occupation right agreement as well as ongoing fees.

“I had no idea until I wasn’t in my own home how much agency you lose in your day-to-day life. A lot of decisions are made around you. In this particular instance where I am now… I live with their constant vibration.”

She has been distressed by ongoing noise in her unit but was not able to do anything about it.

Planned work had not happened as promised, she said. Other people who were considering making a similar move need to think about what they were giving up, she said.

It is something that many people around the country are weighing up, particularly if they have built up good levels of equity in their homes but are struggling with the rising cost of living.

Property law expert Joanna Pigeon said people who were “asset rich and cash poor” often found it tough to stay in their homes when the cost of rates, insurance and other expenses increased.

But she said there were things to weigh up, whichever path someone took, and there could have been drawbacks if Murphy had opted for the reverse mortgage.

Heartland, for example, charges a variable interest rate – currently 7.75 percent – on reverse mortgage lending. This compounds because repayments are not made until the property is sold. Pigeon said this could mean equity reduced quickly.

“I would encourage people considering whether to have a reverse mortgage to have legal advice, and to also if suitable discuss with their family. Sometimes family members may prefer to assist if they can to assist with the preservation of equity in a property.

“The decision whether to go into a retirement unit or remain in a home with a reverse mortgage will always depend on age, stage and health situation. Care may be required at a later date, and if equity is eroded by a reverse mortgage it may reduce options if say a fall necessitates care needs etc. It is impossible to have a crystal ball for potential needs in the future. These potential issues need to be discussed and a decision made in the circumstances. Reverse mortgages are a product to enable a person to remain in their home, but the pros and cons need to be weighed up.”

Retirement Village Residents Association president Brian Peat said he chose a retirement village because he needed to find something quickly when he returned from Queensland.

He said it was not common for people to regret moving into a village but it was a “huge step into the unknown” for residents.

“”It is certainly a different lifestyle and some adjust but others don’t.”

Michelle Palmer, executive director of the Retirement Villages Association, said there were about 53,000 people in retirement villages around the country and 130 moved in every week.

“However, we recognise village living isn’t for everyone. That’s why we encourage anyone considering a move to visit different villages, talk to residents and have conversations with family and friends.

“It is also a legal requirement under the Retirement Villages Act to obtain independent legal advice before signing an agreement. “

She said Murphy’s experience was not typical and she was disappointed and surprised that none of the villages had met her expectations.

“The residents I speak with tell me they value the sense of community, companionship and security villages provide, along with the peace of mind that comes from a low-maintenance lifestyle. They tell me how much they love the village amenities and activities. For many, access to hospital-level care, should they need it, is also an important consideration.

“Some older New Zealanders do choose options such as a reverse mortgage to remain in their home. However, many residents appreciate that in a retirement village, exterior maintenance, lawns, rates and often building insurance are managed by the operator. In many cases, retirement villages also have fixed weekly fees so that provides greater financial certainty.

“As people age, the responsibilities associated with owning a house can become more physically demanding and a financial burden, so having them taken care of provides real reassurance.”

Heartland Bank general manager of retail and reverse mortgages, Will White, said there had been a 15 percent increase in reverse mortgage business in the past six months. There are now more than 26,000 people with a Heartland reverse mortgage.

He said reverse mortgages were popular when prices increased and people had more equity to draw against. They were still popular now, in a weaker housing market, when people struggled with the cost of living and rising rates.

He said people who were under the age of 60 would not be able to access a reverse mortgage. “The earlier you get the reverse mortgage, the more interest you will pay.”

But he said there were many customer protections in place that were not there 20 years ago.

“People rightly have a long memory and there’s this idea that debt’s going to be left to the children, you no longer own your own home… all those things are false but it’s always important for us to make sure we get those messages out there that it’s a different product than people remember.”

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Call for politicians to confirm KiwiSaver members can have their money at 65

Source: Radio New Zealand

[sh] Call to lock in KiwiSaver withdrawal age as 65

123RF

A prominent investor and director is calling for politicians to confirm that New Zealanders can count on getting their KiwiSaver when they turn 65.

Fraser Whineray, former Mercury chief executive, has outlined a plan for how he would like to reform the almost-20-year-old KiwiSaver.

He said a priority was to make the KiwiSaver withdrawal age its own setting.

At the moment, people can access their KiwiSaver funds when they reach the age of eligibility for NZ Super, which is currently 65.

But it shifted from 60 to 65 in 1993 and there have been proposals to move it higher.

Whineray said KiwiSaver access should remain at 65, regardless.

“If that [NZ Super age] shifts, then KiwiSaver shifts. I’m going ‘well hang on a second, KiwiSaver is my money’. People are doing their financial planning, their work planning, all those sorts of things… knowing it’s coming at 65.

“So one rule is that KiwiSaver’s access age needs to be defined, and not defined by something else.”

He said all political parties would receive a copy of the summary policy on Monday.

“I would love to see them answer the question ‘are you going to confirm that people can get their KiwiSaver no later than 65?’ And if they mumble over that question, and say ‘I’m going to wait for a report’ or get a study done or whatever – rightly, New Zealanders should say ‘that is not a hard question. It’s my money, I’m getting it at 65. You need to tick yes or find another job’.”

He said it should also be made clear that the government could not direct KiwiSaver funds.

“KiwiSaver funds need to know that it’s up to them and their risk appetite and their fund managers to work out what they should be invested in, how much in New Zealand, h ow much overseas, how much in bonds, how much in equities, etcetera.

“We can’t have a situation where KiwiSaver funds are being forced to invest in things which are to offload government fiscal problems.”

Whineray also wants to direct more KiwiSaver support to children. The number of under-18s with accounts has dropped since the $1000 “kickstart” payment was removed.

He said children could have an account opened automatically by Inland Revenue at birth with $5000 invested in a growth fund, paid by the government. A family could then put in $2 a week to give children a balance of $20,000 or $25,000 by 18.

He said this could be done with the $500 million a year currently spent on unevenly distributed incentives for people aged 18 to 64.

The member tax credit had cost nearly $1 billion before the government halved its contribution to $260. At the moment, many people were missing out and the system was creating “haves and have-nots” he said.

He also wanted compulsory employer contributions to continue for people on parental leave paid by the employer, and for contribution rates to reach 12 percent.

He said that should be done by dropping employer contributions to 2 percent from 2027 and increasing them by 0.5 percent a year to 2047, while employee contributions remained voluntary.

“We have to do this very gently … we’ve left people behind. They’re already not got on the buss or they are off the bus, so we need to reverse the bus a bit.

“This has to be very slow. Otherwise, it’s just too much of a shock for the system, and the economy, and wages… So, 20 years is kind of the transition, but it also overlaps with the political system letting it stabilise for 20 years, until at that point, it’ll be embedded.”

He said people who had been out of the country for a year should also not be able to pull out their money at that point.

“If you go anywhere [other than Australia] you can pull it out after a year. You go on the OE, you’re sitting in Ibiza, hit 366 days, you’ve permanently migrated and pulled the lot.”

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Finance Minister Nicola Willis says economic impact from Middle East war isn’t clear

Source: Radio New Zealand

RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says the economic impact of the war in the Middle East still isn’t clear.

Energy prices have spiked because of supply concerns, while financial markets have been spooked by the conflict.

The shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for energy trade, effectively closed due to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran in the Middle East.

Modelling by Westpac suggests a disruption to Iranian production only could see the price of oil rise another US$25 per barrel to around US$100 (NZ$168).

It’s warning that could push our inflation rate up by around one percent.

Further shipping disruptions through the Strait could see Brent crude spike further, and as a result, inflation could climb.

Willis told Checkpoint she was receiving briefings every day from the Treasury, which was closely co-ordinating with the Reserve Bank (RBNZ).

“What they’re telling me is that, of course, as a small trading nation, New Zealand will be impacted by these global events, but how we are affected will depend on what happens with the data,” Willis said.

Willis said she hasn’t received formal Treasury scenarios on the impacts of the Middle East conflict yet.

However, she said markets aren’t predicting oil to rise as high as they did after Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.

“Markets don’t know yet how long this conflict will be or how severe this conflict will be, in fact, none of us know that,” Willis said.

“The best-case scenario I think for all of us is that the conflict ends. This is not New Zealand’s, but this is a conflict that is affecting human beings in a profound way and also has the potential to affect the global economy, and, therefore, New Zealand’s economy in a profound way.”

Willis said the Treasury and Reserve Bank are geared up to monitor the effects of the war closely.

She said it was too soon to tell how the conflict will impact her 2026 Budget, but she expects to stick to the operating allowance she gave off $2.4 billion.

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Commissioner of Inland Revenue latest scam target

Source: Radio New Zealand

Inland Revenue say digital platforms use sophisticated algorithms to push content to people based on their search history. 123rf

Commissioner Peter Mersi was used as part of a scam inviting people to a webinar on crypto tax changes 123rf

Even the Commissioner of Inland Revenue cannot avoid being a target for scammers.

The tax department on Thursday warned that people needed to be wary of social media scams impersonating well-known New Zealanders, including commissioner Peter Mersi.

Mersi was used as part of a scam inviting people to a webinar on crypto tax changes.

An image of a man said to be the Commissioner of Inland Revenue (CIR), Peter Mersi, was used as part of a social media scam. IRD/SUPPLIED

The Financial Markets Authority last year warned that scammers were impersonating celebrities, journalists, politicians and financial commentators.

Some were using deepfake videos to promote free investment advice WhatsApp groups and encouraging people to invest in fake investment platforms, it said at the time.

In 2024, a number of fake posts claimed to be RNZ news stories.

IR spokesperson Stephen Lynch said digital platforms were using sophisticated algorithms to push content to people based on their search history.

He said the latest posts did not show Peter Mersi. Incorrect versions of the Inland Revenue logo were being used and the invitation was not from anyone at the department.

“We believe whoever is behind the campaign is using false, probably AI generated, images and messaging to trick people into giving out personal information which is then used to access online accounts or steal someone’s identity.

“Inland Revenue investigates and searches for scams so we can pass the details on to the social media platforms they appear on to have the ads taken down. Following notifications to Meta, this series of ads claiming to be from IR was taken down only to reappear, slightly altered, the next day.

“Unfortunately, the use of images and artificially generated likenesses is on the increase with investment scams on social media platforms and websites being a major contributor to New Zealanders losing $265 million dollars to fraud last year.”

Lynch said Inland Revenue had received more than 3000 reports of scams from the public in the three months to the end of February.

He said scammers were aware of important tax periods and increased their efforts at that time.

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Auckland sees biggest growth in consumer spending in two years

Source: Radio New Zealand

Consumer spending processed through all core retail merchants in Worldline NZ’s payments network during February were up 2.8 percent in the Auckland/Northland region. 123RF

Auckland has seen the biggest growth in consumer spending in two years, with modest growth holding steady elsewhere.

Consumer spending processed through all core retail merchants in Worldline NZ’s payments network during February reached $3.686 billion or 2.2 percent up on February 2025, including the comings and goings of merchants on its network.

The Auckland/Northland region was a standout with a 2.8 percent increase in spending over the year earlier – the biggest year-on-year growth the region had seen in a single month in nearly two years.

Worldline NZ chief sales officer Bruce Proffit said it was encouraging to see a positive consumer spending trend since the start of the year.

“While the annual growth rate is relatively low and spending did not increase across all sectors and regions, it’s still heartening to see that total spending is up at this point of the year, and, most notably, up in New Zealand’s largest region,” he said.

“Noticeably so far this year, the South Island pattern remains similar, although Wellington spending is still below year-ago levels. Waikato remains one of the fastest growth regions and its spending level surpassed that of Wellington – not by much, but for the third month in a row.”

Annual growth rates for core retail spending was highest in Palmerston North (+4.5 percent), Otago (+3.8 percent) and Waikato (+3.7 percent), while spending declines were highest percentage-wise in Wairarapa (-2.3 percent) and Gisborne (-1.7 percent).

Valentine’s Day hit by bad weather

Worldline data indicates consumer spending on flowers and jewellery spiked in the days before and including Valentine’s Day although overall spending was down on last year, with wet weather likely a factor in dampening romantic retail spirits across the nation.

Total spending through florist and watch/jewellery merchants in Worldline NZ’s payments network was down over the year earlier by more than 14 percent to $4.8m over the two days ending Saturday 14 February.

However, data also suggests Southland and Palmerston North were still willing to splash the cash to celebrate the most romantic day of the year.

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What are New Zealand’s global supply chains being disrupted by the US-Iran conflict?

Source: Radio New Zealand

The Hormuz Strait between Iran and Oman carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and a large amount of natural gas, but shipping lanes there have been suspended during the current war. JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP

Explainer – The war raging in the Middle East is affecting supply chains, and New Zealand isn’t immune. What exactly is being disrupted?

There’s a devastating human cost to the conflict, but it’s also worrying many about the impacts on a global economy that’s been battered by years of pandemic, wars and political uncertainty.

With the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran in the Middle East, the first thing you’re likely to notice in New Zealand is a rise in costs. Here’s why.

Supply chains transport goods by boat, air and over land. RNZ Insight/Philippa Tolley

What are supply chains?

Basically, it’s how things get to you, and in the modern world it’s an intricate web of travel between trains, boats and trucks.

New Zealand is particularly reliant on supply chains thanks to our geographical isolation – anything that comes into the country has to come via boat or air.

A supply chain doesn’t just mean oil – it includes food, dairy, construction materials and even your latest widget ordered from Temu.

A 2023 report conducted for the Treasury described New Zealand’s international supply chains as “thin and stretched,” noting they could become “more costly and exposed to increased disruptions – reducing the efficiency of the New Zealand economy”.

Our economy utterly depends on imports and exports – Stats NZ says New Zealand’s total annual exports hit $80.7 billion in the year ended December 2025.

A family sits against the backdrop of a dockyard off coast city of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates in the Strait of Hormuz on 25 February 2026. GIUSEPPE CACACE / AFP

Hang on, we’re pretty far away, how reliant are we on the Middle East?

Extremely.

You’ll have been hearing a lot about the Hormuz Strait, which is a narrow passageway between the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran that is the only way out of the Persian Gulf. It carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and a large amount of natural gas, but shipping lanes there have been mostly suspended during the current war.

The New York Times has reported that just one or two oil and gas tankers are crossing the strait daily this week – typically around 80 do.

One New Zealand logistics company has said it has the equivalent of 4000 cargo containers in transit in that trade lane, all affected by this week’s conflict.

Between 12 to 15 percent of the entire world’s trade also goes through the region’s Suez Canal, and about 30 percent of global container traffic.

Sherelle Kennelly, chief executive of NZ Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarder, told RNZ’s Afternoons that her industry has learned to be flexible.

“Freight forwarders are really good at pivoting and sort of dealing with crises as they come to hand. This has become part of our DNA now.”

The Hormuz Strait is “one of the most critical marine choke points in the world”, she said.

“The escalations and disruptions immediately impact on oil prices, shipping insurance, freight rate and general global supply and trade confidence as well.”

It’s also a big export market for us – the countries making up the Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, were our sixth largest export market in the year to June 2025, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Trade said.

The Meat Industry Association said nearly all our exports to the Gulf Co-operation Council, which were worth $298 million last year, go through Hormuz.

“If Hormuz is closed, congestion and delays will primarily impact chilled exports to the Middle East, which were worth $166 million last year,” an association spokesperson told RNZ.

Petrol prices are likely to rise. RNZ / Dan Cook

Why could prices rise because of this?

Kennelly said backlogs and delays have a ripple effect, even if we may not see it instantly.

“What that means for consumers in New Zealand is delays in shipping, the domino effect of shipping lines, the schedules all go out of whack, and then ultimately the price of fuel increases, the shipping rates increase, and then that just spirals through to the checkout for New Zealanders.”

New Zealand doesn’t import crude oil directly from the Middle East anymore, but a huge amount of the world’s oil comes through there, and it’s all connected in the end.

“The Middle East is a key part of the world’s energy supply and so how that trends will have an impact on fuel prices,” Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen told Checkpoint recently.

“There is a wider concern here that unlike previous challenges in the Middle East and conflicts that you’ve seen in recent years this one looks much more regional and does seem to be expanding.”

If the war continues, it could even hit your interest rates, one analysis found.

During last year’s conflict with the US bombing Iranian nuclear sites, MFAT issued an analysis noting that: “Rising energy costs would weigh on consumer spending, economic activity, and may force the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike interest rates in response”.

“A major geopolitical event, such as an escalating or wider regional conflict in the Middle East, would transmit to the New Zealand economy through several channels,” that report noted.

“Oil markets are thinking that there’s at least three months of possible disruption here,” Olsen said.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis told Morning Report on Wednesday that the overseas conflict and global uncertainty was tough on exporters, but information was being provided to them by the government.

“I do want to acknowledge our exporters have been incredibly adaptable but boy oh boy, is it tough for them.”

A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which much of the world’s oil and gas passes on 1 March, 2026. SAHAR AL ATTAR / AFP

How have past disruptions been handled?

The Middle East region is a vulnerable chokepoint for global commerce, and not always because of war.

In 2021, the Ever Given container ship ran aground and blocked the Suez Canal for six days, creating a massive backlog of ships, and the impacts stretched right through to New Zealand-bound freight.

Houthi militants in Yemen have also repeatedly disrupted trade in the Red Sea by attacking vessels.

Severe droughts affected the Panama Canal, another prime maritime route, in 2023.

New Zealand has looked at ways to make its supply chain more resilient, such as diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory buffers and securing alternative transport routes.

“There is the possibility of exporters using alternative routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz,” MFAT’s 2025 report noted. “These include overland routes from ports in Oman or Saudi Arabian ports on the Red Sea.”

However, alternate routes are likely to increase transport costs for exporters, MFAT said.

The government’s work to secure free trade deals with India and China has also helped ensure our supply chains don’t have to just rely on the narrow Red Sea corridor.

That doesn’t help businesses caught up in the immediate Iran situation, though.

“For New Zealand exports if they’re already on the water … that stuff can’t be redirected, it’s sitting out there on the water,” Olsen said.

Global trade requires supply chains to work, ultimately.

“We’ve got our products, we’ve got to get our products to market and the markets are not in the New Zealand region,” Kennelly said.

What’s next?

The short answer is, nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen yet with Iran, Israel, the US and several other countries now involved in open conflict, and US President Donald Trump has been criticised by some for a lack of clarity in what the long-term goal is.

“I don’t think anyone could realistically tell you how long this is going to be and what the impact of this long-term or short-term,” Kennelly said.

Export New Zealand executive director Joshua Tan earlier this week told RNZ that exporters keep a close eye on developments.

“Companies learnt some really valuable lessons about resilience during Covid – certainly the need to increase communications up and down the supply chain, improving relationships with customers and also those logistics providers, but then also the need to consider a just-in-case inventory model in markets and holding higher stock levels overseas.”

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