Category: Business

Source: Radio New Zealand

Labour’s Chris Hipkins has thrown his support behind the government’s moves to explore ‘tickets’ and temporary offshore fuel storage as the Iran conflict deepens.

Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones and Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said there had been an “unsolicited proposal” from a commercial operator to “do a swap” which would give New Zealand access to more refined fuel.

But there was concern that fuel – though voluminous – would not be suitable for New Zealand’s needs, and could take a long time to get here, possibly 45 days.

“We consume 24 million litres a day – about 50 percent is diesel, about 30 percent is petrol, and the remainder is aviation fuel,” Jones told Morning Report on Tuesday.

“And we believe – subject to the right deal – the tickets, as you put it, the virtual fuel, the put options we have, would equate to about 960 million litres of fuel. So if you do the mathematics, it’s quite a long period of time.”

Jones would not name the operator that made the suggestion.

“The challenge is we hold the options in America, Japan, and I think the UK, and that feedstock has to be compatible with how the refineries in Southeast Asia work because that’s the closest site in terms of bringing fuel here.

“So it would be a transfer, it would be a trade, it would be refined, and obviously the successful party or perhaps one of the existing fuel companies would continue to bring the fuel into New Zealand.”

Jones said the government had also received an unsolicited proposal to set up a “floating terminal off Marsden Point”.

“A large vessel, we’re told, is capable of 120 million litres, and then they call the other vessels slightly smaller milk-run vessels, and they’re up for 40, 50, 60 million, and those vessels are capable of going into some of our smaller ports, and they could pull up there as well.”

The Labour leader said prioritising supply over demand was the right thing to do “at the moment”.

“Doing everything that they can to avoid there being a supply shock is the right focus for them. So that should include looking at tickets and whether we should be exchanging tickets that we currently hold for crude oil, for refined oil, for example – that’s the right thing for them to focus on.”

That included a potential temporary storage facility.

“Anything they can do to smooth supply – that includes storing more fuel here. It means securing more fuel from further afield. Bearing in mind that cashing in those tickets will often involve buying fuel that comes from further afield than we normally buy our fuel from, so it’ll take longer to get to New Zealand.

“So those are all difficult balances for the government to make in terms of when the right time is to pull those particular levers. But they’ll have much better information than we publicly can see. And so, you know, we have to, I guess, place our trust in them to make the right calls.”

But they should also be planning “for the worst” too, Hipkins added.

“Aim for the best and certainly do everything we can to achieve the best outcome, which is not having a supply shock, but plan for the worst in the event that it happens anyway.”

Rationing difficulties

Hipkins questioned how easily a rationing regime could be put in place, as the higher levels of the government’s national fuel plan prescribe.

“If we get to a point where we are having to actively ration the fuel that we have available, we need to know now what that’s going to look like. So who’s going to have access? Who’s not going to have access? And the sooner people know that, the sooner they can make their own contingency plans.”

He said the Covid-19 experience showed the importance of detail when it came to defining who was in what group, for example essential workers.

“This is a different scenario, very different to Covid, but how will people access the fuel? So do they just show up to any petrol station? Is it the forecourt attendant who’s going to determine whether they’re eligible or not? How is that actually going to work in practice?”

Aside from supply, Hipkins said both the government and private sector could reduce demand by encouraging working from home where possible.

“I acknowledge there’s a downside to that, particularly for hospitality businesses and the CBDs, some upside for hospitality businesses out in the suburbs. But there will be an impact on that. But being flexible now and allowing people to make pragmatic choices now will make a difference.”

He accused the government of raising public transport prices. A subsidy allowing half-price public transport subsidy was put in place by Labour in response to price spikes following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and falling use following Covid-19, to expire.

The subsidy for people 25 and over was allowed to expire in 2023, while Labour was still in power, and for everyone else in 2024, following the coalition taking over.

“Anything we can do to encourage people onto public transport is welcome,” Hipkins said.

“The government cut the reductions in public transport that we had put in place. So we made it much cheaper to use public transport and they increased the fares again.

“I’d like to see a focus on making public transport more widely available and cheaper for people, because, regardless of just this crisis, generally speaking, public transport is a good cost of living option.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

BNZ says its new home loan refinancing solution will make it easier to move banks without having to pay legal fees.

Generally, a lawyer is required to move a home loan from one bank to another.

But BNZ said its process would take care of the legal documentation and let people move their home loan directly.

The bank said it was designed for simple refinancing only.

“If a customer’s refinancing needs are more complex or they require legal advice, engaging a lawyer will still be necessary,” said BNZ executive customer, product and services, Karna Luke.

“But for many home loan customers, it will mean fewer hurdles to jump through, and more money left in their pocket.”

Switching numbers risen while banks competed with cashback incentives to tempt customers from other lenders.

ANZ’s offer of 1.5 percent cashback for new business at the end of last year prompted a significant jump in the number of people changing banks.

Loan Market adviser Karen Tatterson said BNZ’s offer was interesting. She said Kiwibank offered a similar facility.

“There is an inherent financial benefit for clients refinancing using this service as it removes their direct legal cost. A key factor will be if BNZ continues to offer the full cash contribution to clients,” she said.

“This offers a simpler, more cost efficient process for refinancing, and it will be interesting to track the usage in the initial stages.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

The Commerce Commission is warning households that the price of power is set to increase about 5 percent.

Retailers have started notifying customers – citing maintenance and upgrades, higher wholesale prices, gas supply decline, and inflation.

In February, Consumer NZ warned that power prices could rise at least 5 percent this year saying that was a conservative estimate.

There was a 12 percent increase in power prices in 2025 and as of 1 April last year the amount lines companies could charge increased. The first step was predicted to be the biggest but there could still be changes year on year through to 2030.

While Commerce Commission chairperson Dr John Small believed the increase was justified, he acknowledged it came at a terrible time.

He also said the monopoly, as well as the generation and retailing component, played a part.

“We are satisfied that the price increases are actually needed,” Small told Morning Report.

“They need to manage very efficiently, but they do need to keep investing in the capacity that they need to provide reliable service.”

Small hoped that something like electricity suppliers being split into generators and retailers would happen.

“It’s really important for us, with our competition hat on, to make sure that something a little bit like this happens, so that the generators are not favouring their own retail arm when they’re selling electricity.”

In the mean time, he suggested using a price comparison tool to shop around.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

The Deputy Prime Minister is pointing to parts of the Covid-19 pandemic response the government will avoid in navigating potential fuel shortages, saying “our long-term future must not be eroded by short-term political theatrics”.

David Seymour, who was highly critical of parts of the previous government’s pandemic response, spoke to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday morning about “the event affecting every part of business right now”.

He said there was no point pretending the conflict in Iran was “abstract or somebody else’s problem” given the impact it had on an “isolated island nation like ours”.

He referenced current fuel stocks as being robust, and said “if, and only if, there is a risk of running out, would we go to demand-side restrictions”.

Seymour then outlined five lessons to learn from the Covid period, saying it would be “mad to ignore a live experiment in politics and policy during a scary global situation” given the country was facing another global event that “could be scary”.

1. Avoid the time trap

He said the first and most important lesson was not to let the situation “warp time”.

He said during Covid, the daily press conferences made “24 hours seem like a year” and the “first 24 minutes we spent waiting to hear the day’s figures felt like a month”. He also said the fiscal situation was the “most obvious time warp victim”.

To date during the current global situation, he said the financial support announced by the government in response to the current crisis was targeted, timely, temporary and funded.

2. Balancing human needs

Seymour said he was still astonished at how quickly education was “glossed over” during Covid.

“How educated the population is will trump any other variable across a generation. But, in the Covid time trap we abandoned it,” he said.

Seymour said he did not think students should be learning from home because of the fuel crisis, “because we cannot afford to put education back at the bottom of the totem pole after working so hard to get students back at school”.

He said education would not be sacrificed if the government needed to move to demand-side rationing.

3. Do it with, not to, the people

Seymour said the Covid response “took on its own momentum” and by the end of 2021, “we’d been in a state of crisis management for 18 months”.

“Many others felt the response was being done to rather than with them,” he said.

That was why the current government had been working “double time” behind the scenes to “keep fuel supply up and be ready to manage demand as a last resort”.

“Rather than jumping to the podium, we are quietly making plans we hope to never use.”

He also encouraged businesses to come directly to the Ministry for Regulation with suggestions for where regulations could be relaxed.

4. Remember we’re all human, all New Zealanders

He said when it came to democracy, the Covid response was a lesson in “what not to do”.

“People accepted the suspension of democracy and the rule of law so easily.”

He said any move to ration demand or limit normal activity would affect millions of New Zealanders, so people were entitled to know the rules and legal basis for them.

“Otherwise, you risk ignoring the fourth lesson, and people feel they haven’t been listened to. That’s when you get riots on the lawns of Parliament.”

5. Learn from the world, and don’t reinvent the wheel

He said New Zealand’s isolation was a big factor in the current fuel situation, similar to Covid.

“Then, we had several weeks’ notice as each variant crawled across the globe. Today, we’re tracing back ships coming to Marsden Point from Korean and Singaporean refineries, and then the ships going to those refineries.”

He said if the government could see what was coming, it could take time to prepare, and watch what others did to plan New Zealand’s response.

“We should never be too proud to learn from another country. We’re pretty good, but we don’t have a monopoly on wisdom.”

He concluded these lessons mattered because the government could not let “today’s crisis erode our country’s future”.

“Fiscal discipline is what stops the first shock being followed by a second one.

“So, when we say do not take your eye off the fiscals, we are not changing the subject,” he said.

He said with “cool heads” the government could respond to fuel shortages from the war without committing the “knee-jerk mistakes made during Covid”.

“We cannot prevent every external shock. But we can make sure New Zealand responds with fiscal discipline and common sense.”

Watch David Seymour’s full speech in the player above.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

A new report suggests it might be possible for New Zealand’s economy to still grow and reduce emissions at the same time.

Many have thought it can’t be done, but the Sustainable Business Council has been on a mission to prove otherwise.

The membership organisation released research which had shown moving to a low emissions economy, instead of relying only on the carbon price pathway, could help to increase GDP by $22 billion by 2035 and $33 billion by 2050. By 2035, emissions could have reduced by 6 percent a year and 22 percent by 2050.

The council’s chief executive Mike Burrell said the growth numbers rely on developing a holistic system, something that was already happening in small like-minded economies like the Netherlands, Denmark and Singapore.

“If you’ve got stable and enduring policies, if you’ve got abundant renewable energy, if you accelerate your innovation and your productivity, and you’ve got a credible carbon price, these things act together,” he said.

“They reduce costs, they lift efficiency, they strengthen your long run competitiveness, and importantly, act as a system, not a series of independent policy levers.”

Burrell said examples of good policy already exist in the way we manage other economic levers and they don’t require all sides of politics to agree on everything.

“If you think about something for example, the superannuation fund or independent monetary policy that came as a result of leadership by the government of the day,” he said.

“The government of the day said ‘we’re going to take a medium term view and we’re going to set this out,’ and subsequent governments went, ‘hey, do you know what that was? A great idea that’s really good for New Zealand’s growth. Let’s stick with that.'”

Burrell said the current oil shock had once again exposed the New Zealand economy’s weaknesses and a consistent policy approach is more important than ever.

“What we’re saying is here’s an opportunity to make New Zealand’s economy more resilient, for us to have the ability to drive our economy where we’ve got more control over over the kind of energy we produce.

“The idea of being more affluent isn’t to be prosperous for prosperity sake, it allows you more choices.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

Self-employment is not proving a path to higher incomes for many New Zealanders, new data from Inland Revenue shows.

Many self-employed people were earning less than the median wage, and more than half of those for whom it was their main income stream were not even earning the minimum.

The data supplied to RNZ shows the median income among people who report wages or salaried income in the 2024 tax year was $62,115.

Self-employed people whose self-employed income was more than 50 percent of their taxable income had a median income of less than $45,000.

People reporting business income, and self-employment as a lesser part of their income, had median incomes in line with wage and salary earners.

More business income-earners were at the top end of the income scale.

Inland Revenue said 70 percent of people who reported self-employment income as more than 50 percent of their taxable income were earning less than the median income of all workers, compared to 58 percent of those earning wages and salaries and 55 percent of those with business income making up the majority of their earnings.

In addition, 53 percent of those who were primarily self-employed were earning less than the median wage.

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said it could reflect the progression of a new business.

“When a person starts out, some will form companies, but many will just work for themselves – and then as their workload increases, they start to take on other people and/or progress to a different trading model, meaning that they shift into the business income categories instead.”

At the University of Otago, economist Dr Murat Ungor said there was a clear skew in the data.

“The lower-income pattern emerges specifically when you narrow the focus to the unincorporated self-employed.

“Their overall median is $50,446, and among those for whom self-employment makes up more than half of total income, it falls further to $44,721; below even the all-individuals median of $45,232.

“By contrast, those who combine self-employment with wages report a much healthier $54,875. The skew, in other words, is concentrated among people whose primary source of income is self-employed income/sole-trader activity.

“Roughly seven in ten people who depend mainly on self-employment report taxable incomes below the national median wage, compared with fewer than six in ten wage earners. One might interpret this as a meaningful gap.”

He said there could be an element of how income was reported affecting the data.

“A salaried employee earning $70,000 typically reports close to that full amount as taxable income, whereas a sole trader invoicing $100,000 or more may deduct vehicle expenses, home office costs, depreciation, subcontractor payments, and prior losses before arriving at a taxable figure, which might land in the $40,000 to $60,000 range despite strong underlying turnover.

“The remainder of the gap reflects genuine earnings volatility. Seasonal work, contract gaps, business start-up losses, and part-year trading all make annual taxable income look weaker for sole traders than for wage earners with stable PAYE salaries.”

He said tough economic conditions recently probably amplified patterns that were already present.

“The lower-income skew among primarily self-employed individuals seems to be a persistent structural feature of how sole-trader income is measured and reported. That said, difficult economic conditions would make it more pronounced, increasing the share of people in the early-loss or low-revenue phase at any given time.”

He said some of the people reporting income of less than $20,000 a year, for example, could be early in their business life.

“Interest rates were high throughout this period as the Reserve Bank sought to reduce inflation by constraining demand, and economic growth was low or even negative in each quarter.

“Someone launching a business in that environment would plausibly show low or nil taxable income in their first filing, not because the business model is flawed, but simply because the conditions were tough and start-up costs absorbed early revenue.

“In general, in many countries, when employment markets tighten, some people move into self-employment not entirely by choice. This kind of reluctant or necessity-driven self-employment tends to produce lower and more volatile incomes than planned entrepreneurship. It seems reasonable that this pattern could also apply to New Zealand during a difficult economic cycle.”

Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there could be a lot of variation in people’s experience of self-employment.

“There some industries like arts, recreation, where you have to be a self-employed person to be able to do your job, right? If you think about, you know, if you’re a personal trainer, for example.

“And the issue with that data is that we just don’t have any idea what it is that they do, whether it requires a lot of capital outlay, if it doesn’t, how long they work, that kind of stuff.”

He said any costs that were being claimed to reduce income would be business costs reducing what people earned.

“It’s interesting that those people who tend to own businesses tend to have incomes that are a bit more top-heavy versus those who tend to be self-employed and wage earners are somewhere in the middle.”

Hnry chief executive James Fuller said income was not always the primary reason for pursuing self-employment, and when combined with those who earned business income, self-employed people were on average earning more than those working for other people.

“While the varied nature of self-employment, encompassing a wide range of sectors and job types including, but not limited to, midwives, personal trainers, doctors, tradies, travel and tourism, gig workers, contractors, and side hustlers, makes it challenging to definitively provide the average earnings of a self-employed person; the data from Stats NZ relating to the income of those who are self-employed and do not have employees is the most representative and reliable measure of earnings across various sectors.

“Findings in the independent Sole Trader Pulse show that many sole traders consider factors beyond earnings in their decision to be self-employed, the October 2025 STP revealed that 46 percent said they had chosen to be self-employed to avoid being employed by someone else altogether and data from June 2025 showed that 76 percent valued the flexibility to choose the way they worked, as a result of being a sole trader.”

He said a desire for more flexibility, control and work-life balance were often drivers in the decision to pursue self-employment.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

• ASB rewrites forecasts because of Middle East conflict
• Slashes 2026 growth forecast to 1.3 pct from 2.9 pct
• Raises inflation forecast to 4.2 pct mid year, before gradually easing
• Duration of conflict will dictate severity of economic shock
• RBNZ faces growth-prices dilemma
• RBNZ expected to focus beyond short term shock, hold rates until year end

The economic recovery has likely been delayed until next year because of the Middle East conflict, according to a new report from ASB.

The bank joined other local forecasters in downgrading the economic outlook, with significant cuts to growth, higher inflation, lower investment, household consumption, and higher unemployment.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said before the conflict and consequent surge in oil prices the economy was ready for a modest recovery through the year supported by lower interest rates and easing inflation pressures.

“With the new headwinds of higher fuel prices and potential fuel scarcity, that recovery is now unlikely to take place until 2027.”

Tuffley said the economy was set to contract in the three months ended June, with annual growth falling to 1.3 percent from its previous forecast of 2.9 percent as higher fuel prices hit consumer spending, disrupt tourism and lower business investment.

At the same time inflation was forecast to rise to 4.2 percent in the June quarter before gradually easing to the high 3 percent level early next year.

He said the severity of the impact depended on how long the conflict lasted and that was like asking “how long is a piece of string”.

“If the conflict eases sooner than expected, the outlook would improve quickly. But for now, households and businesses need to be prepared for a tougher, more uncertain period.”

At this stage ASB was forecasting elevated energy prices through to September.

RBNZ dilemma

Tuffley said the conflict has also given the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) a challenge between higher inflation and inflation expectations, and the hit to growth.

He said the RBNZ governor Anna Breman had recently signalled the central bank would be inclined to “look through” the immediate short term inflation impact

ASB was sticking to its pre-conflict forecast that the official cash rate would likely be raised by the end of the year.

Tuffley said the RBNZ had been looking to the slack in the soft economy to counter inflation pressures, but this had not yet occurred with inflation at 3.1 percent at the end of last year, which was not a good starting point to cope with the oil price shock.

“In time, the OCR is still likely to go up, but we don’t see the RBNZ rushing,” Tuffley said, but adding the risks were skewed to the downside.

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Source: Radio New Zealand

The war in Iran continues to unsettle global financial markets, including New Zealand’s NZX top 50 index, which fell 1.4 percent on Monday.

Amova Asset management’s global asset team had been briefing investors as it worked through various war scenarios, risks, and opportunities across global and local equities, as well as fixed income markets.

Amova New Zealand’s portfolio manager Alan Clarke said the impact was being felt in equity markets around the world, but also in the bond market, putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

He said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had been a potential threat for decades, and its closure had proved the point for countries all around the world.

“New Zealand, thankfully, is sort of insulated from a lot of this, but not from the energy shock, if it is to play out as a big problem for the next few months,” he said, adding bigger markets had taken a harder hit than New Zealand.

“Once the conflict is over, the markets will quickly recover.

“This is a bigger short term hurdle to get over, but there’s plenty of positive news out there in the longer term as well.”

Clarke said there were a number of global companies that had been oversold in recent weeks, since the war began.

“A lot of the names that have been sort of oversold, are some really good quality businesses and a whole bunch of industries that, you know, pretty good, long-term earnings, growth outlooks and trading at valuations we haven’t seen for a few years. So that’s an opportunity.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

The aviation sector is urgently calling for a specific crisis plan around fuel for flying.

The latest gauge of the country’s fuel supplies shows just over 25.3 days worth of jet fuel in the country, up from 20.1 days at the count before.

But including jet fuel that’s on its way, there were overall fewer days of fuel than before, with 50.4 days now compared to 53.4 days earlier.

It’s still about normal for jet fuel.

But Aviation Industry Association chief executive Simon Wallace told Checkpoint supply was crucial for the likes of emergency services and agriculture.

“I mean, the association that I lead represents much of the commercial aviation sector in New Zealand which is agricultural aviators, regional airlines, helicopter contractors, emergency services and having supply is really important, particularly for the likes of those emergency services,” he said.

“And also agriculture, this is the autumn time when we put the fertiliser down on crops, this is about food production and animal welfare as well.”

Wallace said he wanted aviation prioritised in the government’s plans.

“….As an industry body we are taking calls from our members daily,” he said.

“And they are very concerned about supply but also the price, and gas has gone up 100%, it’s gone up to $5 a litre from $2.50 where it was at the end of February and jet fuel has gone up from $1.60 to $2.80 so there is real concern about price.”

The government’s four step response plan already mentions aviation, but Wallace said more was needed.

“We absolutely have to see and have to have assurances from the government that emergency services – search and rescue, firefighting – that they are going to be a top priority if we get to the point at phase three or phase four where there may well be rationing,” he said.

“And the same applies to agriculture, which is at a really critical juncture in the season.”

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Source: Radio New Zealand

Small businesses are still borrowing and investing, despite the Middle East conflict affecting the economy, according to a specialist lender.

Prospa says loan demand flattened slightly in March as rising fuel prices dented confidence, but overall borrowing was still robust – especially for equipment purchases and for taking advantage of government depreciation allowances before the financial year closes tomorrow.

Managing director Adrienne Begbie said firms were also drawing on lines of credit to boost inventory levels, partly as a hedge against possible transport disruptions, and partly to manage future cashflow pressures.

“People are borrowing off our line‑of‑credit product – you’re only paying interest when you’re using it – so it’s more of a ‘just‑in‑case I need it’ scenario,” she said.

Begbie said Prospa’s approval‑to‑settlement metric – the proportion of businesses actually drawing down approved credit – was sitting above 80 percent, levels she said suggested businesses were confident about investing.

She said arrears on business loans had dropped to low levels, and Prospa’s data showed most borrowers were profitable.

After enduring several crises in recent years, Begbie said small businesses seemed to be taking a more pragmatic view this time around, accepting they can not control global events and instead “looking at themselves and getting on with it”.

These trends suggested small businesses were not battening down the hatches during the fuel crisis.

Begbie said the country needed to be careful not to talk itself into a recession.

“There’s still a lot of activity out there, and I worry the doom‑and‑gloom rhetoric is pulling people down,” she says.

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