Category: Business

Source: Radio New Zealand

Consumer spending patterns have been tracking slightly below expectations for the first half of the month, but are expected to pick-up as Christmas approaches.

Worldline NZ’s latest data indicates spending at core retail merchants fell 0.3 percent to just over $2 billion ($2.049b) in the first 14 days of December on last year, with mixed patterns across sectors and regions.

Spending was highest in West Coast (+3.9 percent), Whanganui (+3.3 percent) and Otago (+2.9 percent), with the biggest declines recorded in Wellington (-4.0 percent) and Bay of Plenty (-2.4 percent).

Worldline NZ chief sales officer Bruce Proffit said Christmas Eve was expected to be the peak day for total core retail transactions.

“But we’ll see if that holds up in the ongoing challenging economic environment,” he said.

Hospitality spending was also expected to rise further this week with the peak expected Saturday 20 December.

“Food and liquor stores saw more transactions and slightly higher average transaction value across almost all regions in New Zealand, apart from Marlborough, but this is expected to increase even further in the coming days as shoppers prepare for Christmas Day festivities,” Proffit said.

Hospitality sector spending was mixed with spending generally more positive outside the major centres.

Spending on non-food goods fell 5.7 percent on the year earlier to just over half a billion dollars ($549m).

“Notably, some merchant sectors surpassed their Black Friday weekend spending peak last Saturday, including gift stores, toy and games retailers, bookshops, marine stores, florists and jewellery stores,” Proffit said.

“However, almost all merchants within this group are anticipated to reach new highs for the year, in the remaining days before Christmas, although spending at clothing stores generally peaks on 26 December amidst the usual Boxing Day sales.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

Economists say the Reserve Bank governor is sending a clear message to financial markets they have gone too far in raising fixed mortgage rates over the past week.

Anna Breman, barely two weeks into the role, took the unusual step of issuing a statement about current financial conditions which had gone “beyond” the RBNZ’s recent projection for interest rates.

“Financial market conditions have tightened since the November decision, beyond what is implied by our central projection for the OCR.”

She repeated that the forward path for the official cash rate (OCR) published in the November Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) indicated a possibility of another rate cut in the near term.

“However, if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its [ https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/580066/official-cash-rate-cut-to-2-point-25-percent

current level of 2.25 percent] for some time.”

“As always, we are closely monitoring wholesale market interest rates and their effect on households and businesses.”

Breman said the RBNZ would look at incoming data, financial conditions, and global developments, as it worked towards its next interest rate decision in February.

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie said banks were also looking at the numbers and were coming to the view that rates would rise next year.

“There’s a little bit of calm your farm, cool your jets.”

“Financial markets don’t tend to align themselves with what the Reserve Bank is saying 100 percent of the time, financial markets tend to push a little bit further in either direction.”

“They were a little bit south of the Reserve Bank when interest rates were going down now they’ve decided to go a little bit north of the Reserve Bank in regard that the next move looks like it’s going to be up.”

Bagrie said the same trend of second guessing and moving ahead of central banks was apparent in other economies around the world, including Canada and Australia.

He said it was a little bit of jawboning, but markets were anticipating a rate rise next year to counter any inflation pressures arising from a recovering economy.

BNZ senior strategist Jason Wong said wholesale interest rates had moved lower after Breman’s comments.

“The market took the view that Breman was sending a clear message of some discomfort with the post November MPS market reaction, which had seen rates sharply higher.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

New Zealand’s housing market slowed sharply in November, with a big downturn in sales numbers compared to the month before, data from the Real Estate Institute shows.

Compared to a year earlier, November’s median price was up 2.3 percent nationwide to $808,000 but sales were down 5.7 percent.

Seasonally adjusted, sales were down 4.6 percent. Auckland was down 9.1 percent, Nelson down 15.7 percent and Canterbury down 7.2 percent, while Northland was up 21.6 percent and Hawkes Bay up 5 percent.

“This November marked only the sixth time in 33 years that New Zealand’s November sales count was below October’s, underscoring how unusual it is for activity to ease at this point in the seasonal cycle. Despite the slower sales pace, median prices have remained largely resilient, supported by a stable underlying demand,” chief executive Lizzy Ryley said.

She said, given the confidence and positivity agents were reporting, the institute decided to look back over the quarter to see a wider trend.

She said given the confidence and positivity that agents in the market were reporting, the institute had decided to look back over the quarter to see a wider trend.

Over three months, the number of sales was up 2.4 percent in the quarter compared to the same time a year earlier and median prices up 0.2 percent.

Outside Auckland, sales numbers were up 4.1 percent and median prices 1.5 percent.

“What we have seen is there’s quite a lot of properties being listed,” Ryley said.

“If you look at the listings up 10 percent year-on-year people are feeling a bit more confident, the median price is increasing slightly so when there is a lot more properties on the market the buyer goes ‘oh I’ve got time to consider’.

“I think that’s what I would say we thought when we looked at the November numbers.

“If you look at it across three months you can smooth it out across September, October and November and it shows signs of cautious growth.”

Twelve out of the sixteen regions reported an increase in median prices year-on-year.

Canterbury hit a record median price, up 3 percent year-on-year to $720,000. There were two Territorial Authority (TA) records in Hawke’s Bay’s Wairoa District at $725,000, up 16.7 percent and in Canterbury’s Waimate District at $549,000, up 6.6 percent.

The national median days to sell measured dropped by one day to 40.

Excluding Auckland, it dropped by two days, also to 40.

Ryley said the market had been slower than some would have expected this year.

“I think everybody thought it would get better faster. If you look globally, however, we’re not an outlier.

“It feels actually in the latter part of the year, the property market is moving more positively, … even though it is slow and cautious.

“We saw the OCR shifts, mortgages become more affordable, that two basis point drop, new home buyers feeling like they potentially can afford to get into the market.”

She said when she joined the institute six months ago, some parts of the country were doing well and others not.

“That has stabilised… First home buyers and owner-occupiers continue to dominate the market. With plenty of choice available, some buyers remain cautious and are taking time before deciding to purchase. However, salespeople around the country have reported a growing sense of optimism in the market. They’ve also observed that while sales have decreased slightly, some buyers – and some vendors who are selling and buying in the same market – are finding it easier to manage, due to easing interest rates, the November OCR cut, and more flexible lending criteria. These all seem to be contributing to a cautiously optimistic view heading into 2026.”

There were 1337 sales by auction in November, or 18.4 percent of all sales.

The house price index, which smoothes out variation in the median sales price due to the types of property being sold, is down 0.2 percent year-on-year but up 0.1 percent month-on-month.

She said there was optimism for 2026.

“It’s a sensitive market and that confidence is is quite thin…but I do think that the property market is quite stably growing now.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

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