Shoppers visit Ikea from other parts of the country in ‘unprecedented’ numbers

Source: Radio New Zealand

The crowds on opening day at Ikea. Marika Khabazi / RNZ

Shoppers from as far away as Canterbury and Otago headed to Ikea in its first week of operation.

Dot Loves Data has used insights from ANZ transaction data to show where shoppers in the Sylvia Park shopping precinct – which includes Ikea – are coming from.

Director Justin Lester said it confirmed that it was a magnet for visitors in its first week.

The number of home and furniture shoppers in the Sylvia Park area coming from Auckland increased 1400 percent. The 1156 who came from Waikato was an increase of 1200 percent. There were even 238 shoppers visiting the area from Canterbury in the week, up 7833 percent and 270 from Wellington, up 3275 percent.

Another 93 came from Otago and 250 from Northland.

“These figures show how nationally significant the IKEA opening has been,” Lester said. “What was interesting to us was people were willing to travel from all over the country… clearly they’re going for the opening. Particularly from Bay of Plenty, Waikato visitation but as far afield as Otago, Canterbury, Wellington as well.

“This level of visitation from around the country is unprecedented for a suburban retail precinct. Ikea has instantly become a key economic drawcard, not just for the Sylvia Park/Mt Wellington precinct, but for Auckland more broadly.”

He said while other homeware retailers could be feeling competitive pressure, Sylvia Park as a whole benefitted from the lift in foot traffic.

“Over time, we expect patterns to stabilise, and many retailers may ultimately gain from the broader uplift in visitation.

“If anything it has to have a cluster effect. There is going to be more people travelling to that area. If you’re deciding I’ll go to Newmarket, I’ll go to the CBD, Albany, wherever it might be – if you want something you’re more likely to go to Sylvia Park. Given the nature of Auckland, once you’re there you’re more likely to go across to the mall and shop there too.”

Lester said the retail sector would find a new norm. “The Warehouse was a massive threat to everybody, they were a big threat to Briscoes, but Briscoes thrived. Kmart was almost dead in the 90s and had a resurgence. They’ve found their niche, they know what they are and they do it really well.

“Ikea is only one store at the moment but they’re popular and they will do well.”

Chris Wilkinson, a retail consultant at First Retail Group, said it was expected that Ikea would lift the category more generally. Spending on department stores and leisure had lifted 16.7 percent in the week, and in Auckland it was up 35.1 percent.

“Ikea’s ability to open people’s wallets would have been good for retail as once they are open, they typically stay that way. This year’s more diffused Black Friday didn’t punctuate the season as expected because the start was less defined and the offers seemed to last a while. There was less call to action which didn’t drive excitement like it had done previously.

“But, there are some encouraging signs and retail has had a very busy weekend, so there’s definitely plenty of action happening. Trends from the past week are that footfall – people coming into stores – is down across most centres, but average transaction values are up marginally. The key period is ahead and we think it will be positive as there’s like some pent-up demand out there.”

Lester said there had been good levels of growth in domestic online shopping.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman talks to Corinn Dann: ‘Financial market conditions have tightened’

Source: Radio New Zealand

New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman will not hesitate again to issue a statement for markets to understand how she interprets the economy.

Breman sat down for an extensive interview with Morning Report presenter and incoming RNZ business editor Corin Dann, just a day after she took the unusual step of issuing a statement about financial conditions, which she believed had gone “beyond” the RBNZ’s recent projection for interest rates.

It came on the heels of some banks raising interest rates, believing the bank may raise the official cash rate, despite it cutting the OCR to 2.25 percent late last month.

“Financial market conditions have tightened since the November decision, beyond what is implied by our central projection for the OCR,” she said in the statement. There was still the possibility of another rate cut from the path forward published in the bank’s November Monetary Policy Statement.

Breman told RNZ it was important for markets to understand how she was reading the economic data.

“I am rather new in my role – still just about two weeks into it – and I thought given that it’s a long time until the next monetary policy meeting in February, I thought it was reasonable for markets to see how I read the economic data and also to see how I relate compared to the last Monetary Policy Statement.”

She said she did not want to say whether markets were right or wrong, but the forecast the Reserve Bank had for the official cash rate was different to how the market reacted.

“So there is still a small probability, but it’s still a probability, that we’ll do another rate cut in the near term. We will get much more information how the economy is evolving over just the coming days. We’ll get GDP numbers, we get inflation numbers out in January and all of this will be important when we go into our next meeting.”

Breman – a Swedish economist who was First Deputy Governor of the central bank of Sweden until taking over NZ Reserve Bank Governor on 1 December – said she would not hesitate to make a statement again. She said transparency was important.

“Given I am new in my role, if I comment on monetary policy, I do want everyone to have that information at the same time.”

New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Covid

Breman described how she had been part of the monetary policy response for the Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank. The country was known for responding quite differently in the Covid crisis to New Zealand – the Ardern government here pursued an elimination strategy, Sweden’s was more of a light touch.

“I was in the room when we made monetary policy decisions during Covid and we saw a deep recession coming. We saw even though maybe there were differences in exactly how the restrictions and the lockdown was done, we saw the economy almost in free fall.

“So it was a very severe situation and we acted to support the economy in different ways. So I think in that respect, all countries experienced a lot of both, obviously human suffering but also suffering in terms of economic loss because of the pandemic.”

In a wide-ranging interview, she was asked about the state of the New Zealand economy after Covid.

“I think that what we’re seeing now is that New Zealand has had several years with weak growth, a weak labour market, and we’re starting to see the economy recovering.

“And from my perspective, given that we see inflation also falling and being low and stable going forward, it’s very important now that we see growth that’s lasting, that we see that we have a period where growth is coming back. We see stronger labour markets while of course keeping inflation low and stable. So it’s very important and that’s also why I wanted to stress (in my statement yesterday) that the cut that the Reserve Bank did in late November that was really to support economic growth going forward.”

Cash

Breman believed it was important that people continued to have access to cash.

In a statement in November, the Reserve Bank said its research showed 80 percent of adults use cash sometimes, over half (56 percent) store cash and 8 percent rely on cash.

Breman said: “It is very important that people still have access to cash and as part of our job to ensure that. And the two parts of it is for financial inclusion. People need to be able to pay and sometimes cash is the best option. It’s also crisis preparedness. We saw that with the cyclones. There could be other reasons why the digital systems are vulnerable to attacks. So having cash in a society is important and that’s one of the things that we’re working with.”

Watch the full interview on rnz.co.nz on Wednesday morning

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman talks to Corin Dann: ‘Financial market conditions have tightened’

Source: Radio New Zealand

New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman will not hesitate again to issue a statement for markets to understand how she interprets the economy.

Breman sat down for an extensive interview with Morning Report presenter and incoming RNZ business editor Corin Dann, just a day after she took the unusual step of issuing a statement about financial conditions, which she believed had gone “beyond” the RBNZ’s recent projection for interest rates.

It came on the heels of some banks raising interest rates, believing the bank may raise the official cash rate, despite it cutting the OCR to 2.25 percent late last month.

“Financial market conditions have tightened since the November decision, beyond what is implied by our central projection for the OCR,” she said in the statement. There was still the possibility of another rate cut from the path forward published in the bank’s November Monetary Policy Statement.

Breman told RNZ it was important for markets to understand how she was reading the economic data.

“I am rather new in my role – still just about two weeks into it – and I thought given that it’s a long time until the next monetary policy meeting in February, I thought it was reasonable for markets to see how I read the economic data and also to see how I relate compared to the last Monetary Policy Statement.”

She said she did not want to say whether markets were right or wrong, but the forecast the Reserve Bank had for the official cash rate was different to how the market reacted.

“So there is still a small probability, but it’s still a probability, that we’ll do another rate cut in the near term. We will get much more information how the economy is evolving over just the coming days. We’ll get GDP numbers, we get inflation numbers out in January and all of this will be important when we go into our next meeting.”

Breman – a Swedish economist who was First Deputy Governor of the central bank of Sweden until taking over NZ Reserve Bank Governor on 1 December – said she would not hesitate to make a statement again. She said transparency was important.

“Given I am new in my role, if I comment on monetary policy, I do want everyone to have that information at the same time.”

New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Covid

Breman described how she had been part of the monetary policy response for the Sveriges Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank. The country was known for responding quite differently in the Covid crisis to New Zealand – the Ardern government here pursued an elimination strategy, Sweden’s was more of a light touch.

“I was in the room when we made monetary policy decisions during Covid and we saw a deep recession coming. We saw even though maybe there were differences in exactly how the restrictions and the lockdown was done, we saw the economy almost in free fall.

“So it was a very severe situation and we acted to support the economy in different ways. So I think in that respect, all countries experienced a lot of both, obviously human suffering but also suffering in terms of economic loss because of the pandemic.”

In a wide-ranging interview, she was asked about the state of the New Zealand economy after Covid.

“I think that what we’re seeing now is that New Zealand has had several years with weak growth, a weak labour market, and we’re starting to see the economy recovering.

“And from my perspective, given that we see inflation also falling and being low and stable going forward, it’s very important now that we see growth that’s lasting, that we see that we have a period where growth is coming back. We see stronger labour markets while of course keeping inflation low and stable. So it’s very important and that’s also why I wanted to stress (in my statement yesterday) that the cut that the Reserve Bank did in late November that was really to support economic growth going forward.”

Cash

Breman believed it was important that people continued to have access to cash.

In a statement in November, the Reserve Bank said its research showed 80 percent of adults use cash sometimes, over half (56 percent) store cash and 8 percent rely on cash.

Breman said: “It is very important that people still have access to cash and as part of our job to ensure that. And the two parts of it is for financial inclusion. People need to be able to pay and sometimes cash is the best option. It’s also crisis preparedness. We saw that with the cyclones. There could be other reasons why the digital systems are vulnerable to attacks. So having cash in a society is important and that’s one of the things that we’re working with.”

Watch the full interview on rnz.co.nz on Wednesday morning

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Food prices show signs of easing but 4.4% higher than a year ago

Source: Radio New Zealand

Stats NZ numbers showed food prices easing 0.4 percent in November from the month before. Unsplash / Tara Clark

  • Food prices fall for the third consecutive month, but higher than a year ago
  • Fruit and vegetables drive food prices lower
  • Fuel, accommodation & airfares puts pressure on overall prices, offsetting food price decreases

Food price pressures eased in November amid a sharp fall in the price of fruit and vegetables, but remain considerably higher than a year ago.

Stats NZ numbers showed food prices easing 0.4 percent in November from the month before, the third consecutive monthly fall.

But on an annual basis, food prices were 4.4 percent higher than a year ago, compared to a 4.7 percent increase in the October year.

Fruit and vegetable prices fell 4.5 percent last month owing to seasonal produce like tomatoes and berries, but were 3.7 percent higher than a year ago.

Prices for dairy, red meat, and other staples like bread also remained significantly higher than a year ago.

Stats NZ said a typical two-litre bottle of milk cost $4.91, up nearly 16 percent from a year ago, while porterhouse/sirloin beef stake was up more than a quarter from a year ago to $45.39 per kilogram.

Petrol prices were nearly 3 percent higher than a year ago, and domestic air transport fares rose more than 6 percent monthly, but were more than 14 percent below a year ago.

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said the latest price data – which made up close to half of the overall consumer price basket – did not alter its forecast for fourth quarter inflation.

BNZ projected annual inflation to ease from 3 percent to 2.8 percent in the three months ending December.

Toplis said there were “familiar themes” in the latest data.

“Annual energy price inflation remains very high, food price inflation is elevated but easing, rent inflation continues to ease to new multi-year lows,” he said.

Rent price increases slowed to be 1.4 percent higher than a year ago.

“We have long thought annual rent inflation would ease and we still think it has further to go,” Toplis said.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the November price data was a bit firmer than expected, largely due to the volatile travel categories.

“We expect both tradables and non-tradables inflation will be a bit hotter than the RBNZ expects in the December quarter, with tradable prices accounting for most of that difference,” he said.

Westpac expected inflation to ease gradually to be “comfortably” within the RBNZ’s 2-3 percent target band by mid-2026.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Shoppers get surcharge warning

Source: Radio New Zealand

Consumer says that shoppers using cards should not pay more than about 1.3 percent in surcharges and anything close to 2 percent was likely to be excessive. 123RF

Shoppers are being told to “swerve” any unreasonable surcharges they encounter this Christmas.

Since 1 December, new limits have applied to interchange fees, which a retailer’s bank pays to a shopper’s bank when they use a card.

This means savings for businesses but Consumer NZ spokesperson Jessica Walker told Midday Report her organisation was worried it was not always flowing through to savings for shoppers.

She said people should not pay more than 1.2 percent or 1.3 percent in surcharges now.

“Anything close to 2 percent is likely to be excessive. We want consumers to be on the lookout.”

She said New Zealand’s guidelines required retailers to offer shoppers a way to pay that did not incur a surcharge, such as cash or inserting or swiping a card. People who were worried they were going to be charged too high a surcharge should use a different payment method, she said.

“If you see a fee of 2 percent or more, swerve it.”

Walker said there were also cases where surcharges were not appropriately disclosed.

Shoppers should ask the retailer whether there would be a surcharge and how much it would be, she said.

Walker said Consumer was “always” getting complaints about excessive surcharges and had not seen a change in that yet.

Some businesses might not have updated their systems, she said.

“We’re wanting people to be aware of this. Businesses are going to be saving money. We understand the fees are now comparable with some of the lowest in the world so it’s only fair that the saving is passed on to consumers.”

Walker said estimates were that New Zealanders were paying anything from $45 million to $65m a year in excessive surcharges.

“Anything that can be done to protect consumers is a good thing. This is something we want to bring to the public consciousness if they are spending more over coming weeks and months.”

Meanwhile, it has been reported that retailers want to push the government to ease its plans for a hardline ban on in-store surcharges.

“Our members have been really unhappy about it. We’ve surveyed all our members and we’ve been talking about it for a while and they’re really clear that it’s not something that they support,” Retail NZ chief executive Carolyn Young said.

Young hoped to convince the government to compromise by capping surcharges instead of banning them entirely.

“What we’re trying to do is provide a solution that’s a middle ground that should appease everyone,” she said.

Her proposal was for surcharges on debit card transactions to be capped at 0.5 percent, and for credit cards to be capped at 1 percent.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Willis working on ‘disciplined’ plan to return to surplus, says cuts would deliver ‘human misery’

Source: Radio New Zealand

Finance Minister Nicola Willis speaking at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update RNZ

Finance Minister Nicola Willis is doubling down on her “disciplined” plan for returning the books to surplus – despite new forecasts delaying it by yet another year.

And she took aim at those advocating for sharper spending cuts, such as the Taxpayers’ Union, warning that that prescription would deliver “human misery”.

“We are sticking to our strategy,” Willis said. “Not over-reacting to movements in the forecasts.”

Treasury’s half-year update, published on Tuesday, predicted a return to surplus in 2029/30 – a year later than its forecasts in May. That’s using the coalition’s new OBEGALx calculation which excludes ACC.

“I wouldn’t get too wound up about small changes,” Willis told reporters. She said she would continue to aim for a surplus by 2028/29.

“We are on target to return the books to surplus faster than Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and many other advanced economies, while maintaining a prudent debt position.”

In her budget policy statement, released alongside Treasury’s update, Willis confirmed she would stick to her previously signalled operating allowance of $2.4 billion.

Treasury Secretary Iain Rennie RNZ

Existing pre-commitments meant that left just $1b a year on average for spending on new initiatives in next year’s Budget.

“Most agencies and ministers will need to plan to manage service pressures and other commitments with little or no additional funding,” Willis said.

Willis noted the downward revisions to forecasts were “relatively modest” but acknowledged they followed a similar trend over the past two years due to factors “outside the government’s direct control”.

The Taxpayers’ Union last week launched a campaign calling for Willis to cut public spending and debt more aggressively, accusing her of simply continuing the previous Labour government’s “sugar-rush economics”.

It prompted Willis to throw down the gauntlet, challenging its chair Ruth Richardson – a former finance minister – to debate her “anytime, anywhere” on the government’s finances.

The two have since been locked in negotiations over the conditions for the debate, including [

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/581707/ruth-richardson-still-willing-to-debate-nicola-willis-after-dispute-over-venue time, location and moderator.]

Speaking on Tuesday, Willis said she had no update on that showdown but was still up for the debate.

“The offer is there. Thursday afternoon, I’m available. Friday morning, I’m available. I don’t really care who the moderator is. If they want to turn up, I’m ready.”

Willis explicitly nodded to the “shorter, sharper fiscal consolidation” being advocated by the Taxpayers’ Union.

She said while that would speed up the return to surplus, it could also hurt frontline public services and depress already-weak demand in a recovering economy.

Willis pointed out that the Taxpayers’ Union proposed scrapping all Working for Families tax credits, reducing recipients’ average weekly incomes by about $180.

She said beneficiaries and low-income families would bear the brunt of that change, delivering “a level of human misery” that she was not prepared to tolerate.

Willis said, on the other hand, Labour’s approach to spending was “reckless” and would further delay a return to surplus.

She said the government had delivered about $11b a year in savings during its term.

“Without this disciplined approach, this year’s deficit would be $25 billion and debt would be on track to blow out to 59 percent of GDP,” she said.

Willis promised to release more details to prove that: “We have the receipts.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Government books bleaker as surplus gets further away, deficits grow

Source: Radio New Zealand

Further spending discipline is needed, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

  • Return to budget surplus delayed a year until 2030
  • Deficits forecast to be bigger because slow economic recovery
  • Growth forecast below 1 pct this year rising to more than 3 pct in 2027
  • Debt expect to peak later and higher
  • Finance Minister Willis says further spending discipline needed

The government’s financial position is looking worse for longer with a delay in getting to surplus and bigger deficits, according to new Treasury forecasts.

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) showed the expected deficit for the year to next June would be $13.9 billion, $1.8bn worse than forecast in May, with no surplus now forecast until 2029/30.

The downward revisions reflected a slower economy, lower tax take, higher debt costs, but steady expenses.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said the government was continuing to repair the books and the revisions should not be over emphasised.

“It’s the path to surplus that counts.”

She said the government was looking for the economy to get “fresh air in its lungs” and recover strongly from 2027 onwards which would boost the tax take.

Willis said the government would run a tight financial regime, with the amount of money available for new spending next year to remain capped at $2.4b, but it was determined to get back to surplus a year earlier than Treasury’s forecasts.

The Treasury forecasts generally showed an economy hitting a peak of growth at 3.4 percent in 2027 before easing back to around 2.5 percent for the next three years, while inflation eases back to around 2 percent over the forecast period, with unemployment also easing below 5 percent.

Treasury said it was basing its forecasts on a pick up in housing, an increase in migration, and continued solid export trade, but saw risks to its forecasts in both directions.

The positive risks included the economic recovery being quicker and stronger than anticipated, while the downside risks were that the recovery was softer as consumers and businesses remained cautious.

Net debt was forecast to peak at 46.9 percent of GDP in 2028/29 before edging lower from 2030.

The Debt Management Office reduced the borrowing programme by $5bn over the next two years, but increased it by $8bn in total in 2027 and 2028.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Willis working on ‘disciplined’ plan for returning books to surplus

Source: Radio New Zealand

Finance Minister Nicola Willis speaking at the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update RNZ

Finance Minister Nicola Willis is doubling down on her “disciplined” plan for returning the books to surplus – despite new forecasts delaying it by yet another year.

And she took aim at those advocating for sharper spending cuts, such as the Taxpayers’ Union, warning that that prescription would deliver “human misery”.

“We are sticking to our strategy,” Willis said. “Not over-reacting to movements in the forecasts.”

Treasury’s half-year update, published on Tuesday, predicted a return to surplus in 2029/30, a year later than its forecasts in May. That’s using the coalition’s new OBEGALx calculation which excludes ACC.

“I wouldn’t get too wound up about small changes,” Willis told reporters. She said she would continue to aim for a surplus by 2028/29.

“We are on target to return the books to surplus faster than Australia, the United Kingdom, Canada and many other advanced economies, while maintaining a prudent debt position.”

In her budget policy statement, released alongside Treasury’s update, Willis confirmed she would stick to her previously signalled operating allowance of $2.4 billion.

Treasury Secretary Iain Rennie RNZ

Existing pre-commitments meant that left just $1b a year on average for spending on new initiatives in next year’s Budget.

“Most agencies and Ministers will need to plan to manage service pressures and other commitments with little or no additional funding,” Willis said.

Willis noted the downward revisions to forecasts were “relatively modest” but acknowledged they followed a similar trend over the past two years due to factors “outside the government’s direct control”.

The Taxpayers’ Union last week launched a campaign calling for Willis to cut public spending and debt more aggressively, accusing her of simply continuing the previous Labour government’s “sugar-rush economics”.

It prompted Willis to throw down the gauntlet, challenging its chair Ruth Richardson – a former finance minister – to debate her “anytime, anywhere” on the government’s finances.

The two have since been locked in negotiations over the conditions for the debate, including [

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/581707/ruth-richardson-still-willing-to-debate-nicola-willis-after-dispute-over-venue time, location and moderator.]

Speaking on Tuesday, Willis said she had no update on that showdown but was still up for the debate.

“The offer is there. Thursday afternoon, I’m available. Friday morning, I’m available. I don’t really care who the moderator is. If they want to turn up, I’m ready.”

Willis explicitly nodded to the “shorter, sharper fiscal consolidation” being advocated by the Taxpayers’ Union.

She said while that would speed up the return to surplus, it could also hurt frontline public services and depress already-weak demand in a recovering economy.

Willis pointed out that the Taxpayers’ Union proposed scrapping all Working for Families tax credits, reducing recipients’ average weekly incomes by about $180.

She said beneficiaries and low-income families would bear the brunt of that change, delivering “a level of human misery” that she was not prepared to tolerate.

Willis said, on the other hand, Labour’s approach to spending was “reckless” and would further delay a return to surplus.

She said the government had delivered about $11b a year in savings during its term.

“Without this disciplined approach, this year’s deficit would be $25 billion and debt would be on track to blow out to 59 percent of GDP,” she said.

Willis promised to release more details to prove that: “We have the receipts.”

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Government financial position weaker than expected in May budget

Source: Radio New Zealand

Further spending discipline is needed, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

  • Return to budget surplus delayed a year until 2030
  • Deficits forecast to be bigger because slow economic recovery
  • Growth forecast below 1 pct this year rising to more than 3 pct in 2027
  • Debt expect to peak later and higher
  • Finance Minister Willis says further spending discipline needed

The government’s financial position is looking worse for longer with a delay in getting to surplus and bigger deficits, according to new Treasury forecasts.

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) showed the expected deficit for the year to next June would be $13.9 billion, $1.8bn worse than forecast in May, with no surplus now forecast until 2029/30.

The downward revisions reflected a slower economy, lower tax take, higher debt costs, but steady expenses.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said the government was continuing to repair the books and the revisions should not be over emphasised.

“It’s the path to surplus that counts.”

She said the government was looking for the economy to get “fresh air in its lungs” and recover strongly from 2027 onwards which would boost the tax take.

Willis said the government would run a tight financial regime, with the amount of money available for new spending next year to remain capped at $2.4b, but it was determined to get back to surplus a year earlier than Treasury’s forecasts.

The Treasury forecasts generally showed an economy hitting a peak of growth at 3.4 percent in 2027 before easing back to around 2.5 percent for the next three years, while inflation eases back to around 2 percent over the forecast period, with unemployment also easing below 5 percent.

Treasury said it was basing its forecasts on a pick up in housing, an increase in migration, and continued solid export trade, but saw risks to its forecasts in both directions.

The positive risks included the economic recovery being quicker and stronger than anticipated, while the downside risks were that the recovery was softer as consumers and businesses remained cautious.

Net debt was forecast to peak at 46.9 percent of GDP in 2028/29 before edging lower from 2030.

The Debt Management Office reduced the borrowing programme by $5bn over the next two years, but increased it by $8bn in total in 2027 and 2028.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

NZ video game sector up 38 percent while global industry falling behind

Source: Radio New Zealand

A clinic treating gaming disorder has opened at Perth’s Fiona Stanley Hospital, in an Australian first. Unsplash

New Zealand’s video game sector is growing rapidly while much of the global industry is stagnating, according to an international expert.

This year’s annual survey by the NZ Game Developer’s Association put the sector’s pre-tax income at $759 million, up 38 percent from the year before.

Kate Edwards, the executive director for the International Game Developer’s Association, told Nine to Noon that New Zealand’s growth was making waves internationally.

“You’ve got a nice ecosystem that is well supported by the government, you’ve got an education system that’s supplying talented people going into the games industry,” she said.

“As far as sustaining that level of growth, it’s possible. That’s one thing that I think makes New Zealand stand out right now is it’s seeing that growth in the face of an industry that has not seen growth, at least internally.”

She said a number of major game companies around the world had bitten off more than they could chew during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“During Covid-19 a lot of game companies ramped up, they hired a lot of people, because during Covid-19 we saw a huge boom in gameplay because people were stuck at home… A lot of people started playing games for the first time,” she explained.

“A lot of companies mistakenly thought this wasn’t going to end, so when things went back to normal a lot of companies had to downsize.”

New Zealand’s gaming industry was still young and the vast majority of studios would be considered “indie” or “double-A” compared to major international publishers like PlayStation, Microsoft and Nintendo as “triple-A” giants, Edwards said.

But she explained that “indie” and “double-A” studios were seeing the most growth and success in 2025.

“Let’s take some recent examples that have been very successful, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 which swept The Game Awards just a few days ago. Clair Obscur made by about a 20 person team in France,” she said.

“Or even the year before, the game Balatro which just went crazy in terms of both popularity, sales, awards it got, that was made by one individual in Saskatchewan (in Canada) who still remains anonymous. So the scale of the studio is not really the [measure] of success.”

Christchurch-built indie game Dredge achieved massive success in 2023 despite being made by just four people.

Some games would have a relatively short life-cycle, with developers moving on to sequels or other projects, while others would persist for several years at a time, Edwards said.

“Certainly people like things new, [Clair Obscur and Balatro] are examples of games that are very new and very fresh… At the same time, a lot of companies have had tremendous success with the long tail of an IP that’s very popular,” she said.

“Look at some of the franchises like Call of Duty and Battlefield, games like that which have been going on for decades now.”

New Zealand-made online game Path of Exile was released in 2013 and had maintained a steady player-base for over ten years before its sequel, Path of Exile 2, released to even greater success last year.

Kate Edwards drew parallels with Finland’s game industry, which was experiencing similar success.

“I see a lot of similarities and parallels there, which is a really good thing because Finland has basically used their national identity as a driving force to say ‘Finnish game developers are the best in the world,’ well I think New Zealand developers are on par with that as well,” she said.

“If they want to lean into national identity as a cohesive force… Because I think that’s the key, among the creative sectors… There needs to be that sense of cohesion that we’re all in this together because ultimately we’re seeing trans-media and the crossover of all these properties, IP in games being turned into film and TV and vice versa, there’s so much room there to work together.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand