Author: MIL-OSI Publisher

Source: Radio New Zealand

Employee confidence has improved slightly, but remains deeply pessimistic.

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose by 3.9 points to 93.8 in the three months ended December, its highest reading since March 2024.

A level below 100 indicates more households are pessimistic about the outlook than optimistic.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said New Zealanders still see jobs as being in short supply.

“However, there was a slight improvement in the December quarter, consistent with our view that the unemployment rate has peaked at its current level of 5.3 percent,” he said.

Gordon noted the index was improving, but from very low levels. He said there was greater confidence about job security and opportunities in the year ahead, but cautioned the labour market would be one of the last parts of the economy to recover.

“There’s a growing sense that the economy has reached a turning point, although the labour market is typically one of the more lagging aspects of the economic cycle.

“For that reason, we expect only a gradual improvement in the unemployment rate over the course of 2026.”

Current and expected earnings growth remained subdued because of excess capacity in the labour market.

Gordon noted workers would have less bargaining power as inflation returned to target and cost-of-living pressures eased.

Regional variations

Results were mixed across the country, with confidence rising in seven regions and falling in four.

Gordon said confidence had weakened in dairy-intensive regions such as Northland, Waikato, Canterbury and Southland, adding that Fonterra lowering its milk price forecast may have dampened sentiment.

“The recent falls in dairy prices may be weighing on earnings expectations across these regions.”

Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, Otago and Auckland were the most confident regions.

Wellington was the country’s least confident region, falling 3.2 points to 80.5.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Source: Radio New Zealand

Auckland house prices are showing signs of picking up, but Wellington’s continue to fall and increased supply is keeping townhouses cheaper.

QV has released its latest house price index, showing for the country as a whole, prices were up 1.1 percent over the three months to December.

The national average value was now $910,118 – 0.9 percent higher than the same time last year, but still 13.1 percent below the peak of January 2022.

Christchurch prices were up 2.5 percent in the quarter, and Hamilton 2.1 percent. Auckland turned around a decline of 2.2 percent in the October quarter and a 1.1 percent fall in three months to November to lift 0.8 percent.

Wellington was the only main centre where values were still falling, down 0.5 percent.

Invercargill was up 3.3 percent, Rotorua 2.6 percent and Whangārei 2.5 percent.

“A clear majority of the areas we measure recorded quarterly growth, indicating that value movements are now occurring across a broader range of regions,” spokesperson Andrea Rush said.

“With the number of homes for sale nationwide at the highest level in a decade, buyers continue to have the upper hand, with more choice and the ability to negotiate. This is keeping value movements in check, even as activity improves in some areas.

“That dynamic is also contributing to improved affordability in relative terms, particularly for first-home buyers, who remain active across many parts of the country.”

She said apartments and townhouses were under price pressure in Auckland and Christchurch because of high levels of supply as well as higher building and servicing costs, and the fact standalone houses had dropped in price.

There were 35,969 new homes consented in the year ended November 2025, up 7 percent compared with the year before, Stats NZ said.

“In the year to November 2025 multi-unit homes drove the increase in new homes consented,” Stats NZ economic indicators spokesperson Michelle Feyen said. “That’s reflected in the number of townhouses, flats, and units being consented.”

There were 9.6 percent more townhouses, flats and units than a year earlier.

“In many cases, buyers are choosing houses on their own sections – offering more storage, privacy, living space and carparking – over townhouses or apartments that lack these amenities and are often not significantly cheaper to purchase,” Rush said.

“Agents also report that buyers are favouring developments that do offer these features, particularly those in popular locations, over those that lack parking, storage, privacy and outdoor space.”

She said there had been a “reset” in development land values in some areas such as Waitākere, Manukau and Papakura.

“Building costs remain elevated compared to pre-peak levels, alongside higher interest rates, some developers who paid a premium for land during the peak can no longer afford to develop or hold it, resulting in land being resold in some cases at significantly lower prices than originally paid.”

Wellington emptying out

Rush said Wellington prices were now 3.6 percent lower than a year ago, but the 0.5 percent drop was more of a stabilisation than a fall.

“You still are having the impact of job losses in the public sector, people leaving, students leaving, people going overseas. So what you’ve sort of got is an excessive housing supply not only in terms of rentals but also in terms of properties that are on the market and that demand for housing with fewer people looking for housing across the board is seeing pressure on values continue.”

Some parts of the city were 30 percent below their previous peak values. She said that was positive for first-home buyers who wanted to enter the market.

“However interest rates remain much higher than during the previous peak, so servicing debt is still a barrier to potential buyers… But you know, there’s a positive to this. There was a period there where rents were very high in Wellington and house prices were, too. So there’s always a positive side to the reset that we’ve seen since the previous peak.”

Property investment coach Steve Goodey said Wellington felt flat.

“There are some green shoots – there are not as many listings for a summer period as we would normally expect.

“With rental demand, rents have gone down 7 percent to 10 percent meaning landlords are reducing their rents to get a better occupancy… suddenly places are starting to fill up. I had a boarding house with 11 bedrooms and a whole pile of people left before Christmas and I couldn’t get new tenants over Christmas – now it’s back to nine rooms out of 11.

“There’s decent rental demand in Wellington and good quality properties are being snapped up fairly quickly.”

Wellington real estate salesperson Mike Robbers said he was optimistic about the year ahead. The first big round of open homes would happen this weekend, he said. “Normally you find quite a few people milling around… in the last few years the last few weeks of January have generally been quite buoyant.”

Rush said she expected a stable 2025.

“An election year can create a degree of caution and that sometimes restrains activity.

“Buyers and sellers take a more wait-and-see approach. So that tends to happen towards the end of the year during the election year.

“However, as we head into the summer months activity was on the rise previous to Christmas, we do have the situation where across the country we have more properties listed for sale than has been seen in a decade.

“Buyers have plenty of choice, which keeps pressure on prices.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand