Whitebait – what happens to the ones that get away? 

Source: NZ Department of Conservation

Īnanga/īnaka/whitebait caught in a whitebaiter’s net | Paddy Ryan

Whitebait – all grown up 

Every whitebait season whitebait wriggle upstream – some destined for fritters, some as dinner for other native and non-native species.  

But what happens to those whitebait that get away?  

They grow up to be six different native fish species. These fish were once ‘whitebait’… 

What are whitebait exactly? 

Whitebait are a mixture of the juvenile stage (teenagers) of  īnanga/īnaka, banded kōkopu, giant kōkopu, kōaro/climbing kōkopu, shortjaw kōkopu and paraki/common smelt.

Īnanga/īnaka dominate, making up about 85% of the total whitebait catch. Kōaro and banded kōkopu each contribute 5-10%, while the remaining species are much rarer (less than 1%). This mix of species can vary around the country and at different times of the year. 

Except for common smelt, these fish are all migratory galaxiids – named for the star-like patterns on their adult skin. They move between freshwater and the sea during their lives. In fact, whitebait are juveniles returning to freshwater from the sea. 

Whitebaiting – a tasty treat for humans, birds and fish

Catching whitebait is a way of life for some fishers. They may be keen to eat, give away or sell this seasonal delicacy. Others simply enjoy being in nature and spending time with their friends and whanau. Fishing gear varies widely across the country, but are all designed with catching whitebait in mind. 

Scoop netting on the Wairau River, Marlborough | Dirk de Vries, DOC
Check out the gulls eyeing-up any leftover whitebait scraps.

As whitebait travel inland through estuaries and rivers, they navigate other natural dangers waiting to strike. These tiny fish form a vital part of the foodweb, a tasty takeaway for seagulls, eels, kahawai and trout. 

Tarāpunga/red-billed gull at nest with chicks | Rod Morris/rodmorris.co.nz  

The endangered Australasian bittern/matuku-hūrepo relies heavily on adult īnanga as a food source.

Male Australasian bittern keeping an eye out for his next īanaga meal. Photo credit: Colin O’Donnell DOC.

Barriers to whitebait – between a rock and a hard place 

It’s not just hungry humans and non-humans that stand in the way of these feisty fish reaching their adult upstream hang-outs. Constructed barriers in streams like culverts, weirs and pipes that are not well designed or maintained can stop whitebait making their way upstream. Some species like īnanga/īnaka find rising to this challenge difficult as they aren’t good climbers.  

So, where do the adult ‘whitebait’ hang out? 

Adult whitebait are found many different habitats across the country. Giant kōkopu and īnanga/īnaka tend to live in lowland rivers, streams and wetlands. Kōaro have the ability to ‘climb’ up waterfalls, so they can travel further inland and live in high mountainous, bouldery streams. 

Freshwater fish habitat – where whitebait grow into adults and hang out until the next spring’s high tides | Sjaan Bowie

These fish are often secretive and can be hard to find. They tend to feed at night and hide during the day under logs, boulders, riverbanks and vegetation. 

For the whitebait fishery and the whitebait species to thrive, all parts of their lifecycle—from ocean to stream—must be supported by healthy, connected habitats. 

Want to help?  

Check for barriers: Are there culverts or weirs on the waterways you fish? Could they be modified into fish-friendly passages? Check out the Fish Passage Assessment Tool | Earth Sciences New Zealand | NIWA 
Restore habitats: Get involved in planting stream edges to create the environments adult fish need and trapping pests along the banks during peak spawning to protect eggs from being eaten. 
Learn more: Explore resources on freshwater fish, fish passage management, and whitebaiting regulations. 

Further information

Helping freshwater fish | Department of Conservation
Managing fish passages | Department of Conservation
Rites of fish passage | Conservation blog
Whitebait: swimming against the flow | Conservation blog  
Freshwater fish | Department of Conservation
Whitebaiting fishing regulations | Department of Conservation 

Organisations overlooking the cost of job insecurity in the workplace – expert says

Source: Radio New Zealand

Restructures at work could make workers less productive in the long run. (File photo) 123rf

Many organisations are overlooking the cost of job insecurity in the workplace when aiming to boost efficiencies.

Business consultancy Baker Tilly Staples Rodway said restructuring could make teams less productive in the long run.

Associate Felicity Salter said restructuring was often unavoidable, but the financial logic of reducing headcount could be undermined if the remaining workforce became more cautious, less collaborative and less engaged.

“We see higher levels of absenteeism, higher safety incidences, and sometimes those incidences aren’t reported because there’s that fear of losing their job in an already uncertain environment.

“We’re seeing lack of innovation and lower performance as well, which is a bit counterproductive.

“You’d sort of expect people to perform higher in these conditions, to safeguard their roles. But that’s not actually what we’re seeing.”

She said global studies showed a rise in job insecurity resulted in a drop in productivity.

“Other studies indicate that insecure employees are more likely to hoard knowledge or hide information to appear indispensable, which is linked to reduced company performance.

“There is also evidence across multiple industries that insecurity erodes people’s sense of autonomy and control, lowering engagement, dulling innovation and reducing their willingness to invest time and energy into their roles.”

Still, Salter said there were ways to balance right-sizing a workforce without destabilising the teams that needed to be retained.

“Business leaders needed to be aware of warning signs, with practical steps to mitigate any fallout.”

She said communication was critically important, along with real engagement with staff, support programmes, and a focus on ensuring compensation policies were up-to-date.

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Diesel spill, SH2 Remutaka Hill, Upper Hutt

Source: New Zealand Police

Motorists are advised to exercise caution when driving on State Highway 2, through Remutaka Hill, Upper Hutt, due to a diesel spill this morning.

Police were notified of the spill around 7:10am.

Council has been notified for clean up and motorists are advised to take extra care while driving and expect delays.

ENDS

Road blocked, Ngaruroro River Bridge SH2, Hawkes Bay

Source: New Zealand Police

The Ngaruroro River Bridge, State Highway 2, Hawkes Bay is blocked following a crash this morning.

Police were called to the crash, involving three vehicles, around 6:50am.

Thankfully, there are no serious injuries reported.

Motorists are advised to avoid the area where possible, and expect delays.

ENDS

Liam Lawson to remain in Formula 1 in 2026 – report

Source: Radio New Zealand

Racing Bulls driver Liam Lawson arrives in the paddock ahead of the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix AFP

Reports in Europe say New Zealand driver Liam Lawson will remain in Formula 1 in 2026.

Red Bull will announce their driver lineups for Red Bull and Racing Bulls on Tuesday local time (Wednesday NZ time).

Lawson’s Racing Bulls team-mate Isack Hadjar has said that he has a seat for next year but would not say in which team.

The Frenchman is expected to join Max Verstappen at Red Bull.

Autosport.com is reporting that Arvid Lindblad will be promoted from F2 into one of the Racing Bulls seats, leaving Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda fighting for the other seat.

The Dutch publication De Telegraaf is reporting that Lawson will be retained, leaving Tsunoda without a full-time race seat in 2026.

It has been a turbulent year for Lawson who started his first full season in F1 in Red Bull before being demoted after two races.

The 23-year-old spent the rest of the season fighting for points and his survival.

He finished ninth in Qatar last weekend, his seventh points finish of the season and he sits 14th in the Drivers’ Championship.

Red Bull will end their relationship with Honda in 2026 and develop their own power units with help from Ford.

Honda have been a long time supporter of Tsunoda and Autosport reports that the Japanese racer could become the team’s reserve driver.

Tsunoda has been in F1 since 2021.

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Calls for yellow-legged hornet trapping in Auckland to be widened

Source: Radio New Zealand

123rf

The battlelines have been drawn in Biosecurity New Zealand’s war against the yellow-legged hornet, but there’s some suggestion they should be widened before a population takes hold.

Currently, trapping has been extended out to a five kilometre radius around the concentration of the hornet detections in Auckland’s Glenfield and Birkdale, using a combination of carbohydrate and protein traps.

To date, there have been 29 confirmed queen hornets found (based on specimens), according to Biosecurity New Zealand.

The agency said 19 of the 29 confirmed queen hornets were found with either developed nests or evidence of nesting. 

Additionally, seven worker hornets were found in nests.

Northland conservationist Brad Windust said authorities need to look at casting the net wider to 30km ahead of summer.

He said the coming months were pivotal for the goal of eradication and the prevention of the hornets spreading to other regions.

“We need to give out thousands of traps to people in a 30km radius with clear instructions and bait.

“It will only take two queens to fly outside the current 5km radius monitoring area they have at the moment and we would have lost it because each queen after she makes her nest drops hundreds of queens in the autumn and they can disperse up to 28km.

“We also want them to give out Vespa catch traps to all the beekeepers and orchardists in the North Island as a monitoring tool, because there’s a real chance that some of these hornets got moved while they were hibernating in the winter last year.”

Biosecurity New Zealand north commissioner Mike Inglis said the fact they were finding more hornets showed surveillance efforts were working.

He said they’d adjust their hornet response activities, including extending the trapping radius, where required based on their technical advisory group (TAG) advice alongside the input of our own experts.

“The 5km tapping radius was decided on based on advice from the TAG. It is a multi-prong scientific approach to trapping, as guided by our international experts with actual on-the-ground experience managing the pest. However, our public awareness push extends throughout the country.

“We have a national advertising campaign in the market urging the public to report suspected sightings. We are asking residents to check their properties for any hornets or nests and providing information where to look, including how to make and monitor your own trap.

“We are also working closely with the bee industry, including enhanced hive surveillance and we have produced a series of key documents for beekeepers around trapping, surveillance and reporting. All of that information is also available on our website.”

Inglis said on-the-ground surveillance was an important tool for detecting hornets and had been expanded since the beginning of the response.

“We have increased the number of traps by more than five times from the early numbers, to more than 600 and we are adding additional traps as more hornets are found. We are also doing property-by-property searches within 200 metres of confirmed finds. We’ve done more than 2200 property checks for hornets and nests and that number grows every day,” he said.

Inglis said genetic testing indicated the hornets were closely related, suggesting a small, contained population.

Victoria University entomologist Phil Lester said Biosecurity New Zealand were acting appropriately with their action around trapping and searching areas for ground nests.

“I think the ground teams that are working from MPI are doing a really good job. So clearly they’re finding this, they’re putting a lot of effort into it.

“They’ve increased the amount of people that are on the task and are doing well, but I think we probably need to have more people out there, more boots on the ground to be able to look for these hornets and get them while we can.”

Lester said authorities will need to change tact ahead of the summer months.

“Having traps out, having people looking for nests and workers is awesome.

“In addition, at that stage let’s do the hunting for nests up the top of trees and that sort of thing where they’ll be at that time. So the tipping point really comes at, well, we’ve got to spend, hopefully get them all this summer.”

Lester said it was difficult to know just how far the pests may have travelled since arriving in Auckland.

He said the 5km radius advice at the moment is based on international advice that Biosecurity have had.

“There’s lots of work overseas that is looking at how quickly does an invasion front move, so that work is where the 30km to 80km to 100km comes from and that’s where you’ve got a whole bunch of nests that are sending out new queens every autumn that are going some distance.

“We’re not in that situation. So we’re in a situation where we’ve probably got one nest that sent out some queens last autumn.

“So how far have they moved? That’s the big sort of question that is kind of unknown.”

He said even if authorities were unable to complete eradication this summer, it’s not too late.

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Relying on forestry for carbon removal is placing ‘eggs in one basket’, MPs warned

Source: Radio New Zealand

Climate Change Commission chief executive Jo Hendy. RNZ / Dom Thomas

Relying on trees to offset New Zealand’s emissions years into the future is putting “a significant number of eggs in one basket”, the Climate Change Commission chair has warned politicians.

New trees would need to be “in the ground” within a couple of years and could still be destroyed by forest fire or extreme weather events – wiping out their carbon savings.

Appearing before Parliament’s environment select committee on Monday, commission chief executive Jo Hendy was questioned about the “significant risks” the commission identified earlier this year when it came to meeting the country’s emissions budgets.

Emissions budgets are set by the government, taking into account advice from the commission.

They establish the total net emissions the country can produce over a five-year period and still keep its domestic and international climate goals on track.

In its annual emissions monitoring report released earlier this year, the commission said there were risks to meeting the second budget (2026-30) and third budget (2031-35).

One of those risks was relying on forest removals of carbon dioxide to meet nearly half of the 2031-35 emissions budget.

Green Party climate change spokesperson Chlöe Swarbrick. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

In response to questioning from Green Party climate change spokesperson Chlöe Swarbrick, Hendy said there were two main implications of that approach.

“The first implication is you need those forests in the ground quickly for that carbon to then start sequestering,” she said.

“The other is risks around things like fires and storms – you know, another Cyclone Gabrielle taking a big hit out of that forestry. Then you’ll be faced with a difficult situation where you might not be able to meet the budget.”

Researchers have started to warn that many of the natural carbon sinks that society relies on to soak up emissions are now sometimes releasing more carbon than they absorb.

Swarbrick asked Hendy if she could explain the commission’s remarks that “the reliance on forests for a large proportion of emissions reduction is likely to increase the long-term cost of meeting the 2050 target and increase impacts on future generations”.

That was because using forestry to offset emissions created less of an incentive for businesses and communities to limit the amount of greenhouse gases produced in the first place, Hendy said.

“As a result, we don’t get as much decarbonisation in the economy.

“When you don’t get as much decarbonisation in the economy – what we’re talking about is electrification of industry, for example – you are missing out on those economic benefits of reduced costs.”

The commission has long recommended that New Zealand “decarbonise where possible”.

“Relying heavily on forestry might help Aotearoa meet its 2050 emissions reduction targets but it would make maintaining net zero long-lived emissions beyond that date more difficult,” it told the previous government in 2021.

“It would delay people taking actions that reduce gross emissions, lead to higher cumulative emissions and push the burden of addressing gross emissions on to future generations.”

Tougher methane target was feasible, affordable, achievable

The committee also asked Hendy about the government’s decision to revise New Zealand’s 2050 methane emissions target.

In October, the government said it would scrap previous plans to introduce agricultural emissions pricing by 2030, and would pass legislation to lower the 2050 methane target from a 24-47 percent reduction from 2017 levels, to a 14-24 percent reduction, in line with a ‘no additional warming’ policy.

National MP Grant McCallum. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

National MP Grant McCallum, a Northland beef and dairy farmer, asked what the impact would be on the rural sector if the current target was retained, if there was no technology available to help farmers reduce their methane emissions.

“One of the key considerations when we do our scenario work for emissions budgets is impact on rural communities,” Hendy said.

“We found that it was a feasible and affordable and technically achievable, in our previous emissions budget advice at the end of last year.”

The upper end of the range could be achieved with new technologies, while the 24 percent low end of the range was based on technology that was already available, and changes to farming practices.

There was a “good pipeline” of methane-inhibiting technology, she said.

“The key point will be making sure that it can be deployed on farms.

“Not necessarily every tool will work on every farm. It’s really about making sure that farmers are enabled to work with the tools that work for them.”

McCallum asked Hendy and commission chair Dame Patsy Reddy twice about whether New Zealand should remain a signatory to the Paris Agreement.

“Does the commission have a view or has it given any consideration to the cause of some people who think we should pull out of the Paris Accord [sic]?”

Part of the commission’s mandate was based on the agreement, Dame Patsy said.

“It’s not our place to have a view.”

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has repeatedly said the government was committed to the Paris Agreement and New Zealand’s emissions targets, despite a push from coalition partner ACT to leave the pact.

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Lawyers criticise ministry’s advice to Fisheries Minister Shane Jones on set net fishing

Source: Radio New Zealand

A hoiho or yellow-eyed penguin. Supplied / Catlins Tours

Lawyers representing a charity calling for more protection for the hoiho, or yellow-eyed penguin, have criticised advice on set net fishing given to the fisheries minister.

In October the Environmental Law Initiative (ELI) filed High Court proceedings against the Minister for Oceans and Fisheries Shane Jones over the set net ban, which it said failed to protect hoiho from the risk of extinction.

Jones announced in mid-September the set net fishery around the Otago Peninsula would close for three months, with public consultation on long-term bycatch measures to protect hoiho carried out during the closure period.

The three-month emergency closure extended the existing four nautical mile set net ban, which was in place to protect dolphins, out to eight nautical miles.

However, the extension only applied to waters surrounding the Otago Peninsula, leaving other key hoiho habitats unprotected, ELI argued.

Those habitats included North Otago and Stewart Island.

Monday’s judicial review at the High Court in Wellington came in the wake of a hoiho being caught near Stewart Island over the weekend.

David Bullock, representing the charity, said the nub of his case was that the minister was not told about limitations with the studies given to him by officials when considering the September ban.

Minister for Oceans and Fisheries Shane Jones. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Bullock made the argument officials could have told Jones that whilst they had focused on the Otago Peninsula, he may wish to consider a wider area due to a lack of data and given it was known the hoiho had been caught in other areas.

Justice David Boldt noted the government workers had to give their advice in a condensed time period and the minister made the decision when he did in September because it was the hoiho’s breeding season.

The crown was represented by Nicholai Anderson, who told the court that the ban was put in place in a hurry and was a temporary measure while a long-term solution was sorted out.

He said the modelling the minister did recieve was highly sophisticated and was limited only because it related to adult penguins and not juvenile birds.

The hearing continues.

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How leadership challenges happen in New Zealand politics

Source: Radio New Zealand

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, centre, with (clockwise from top right), former prime ministers Jacinda Ardern, Chris Hipkins, Mike Moore, David Lange, Bill English and John Key. Many have faced leadership challenges or chose to resign and hand over to a successor. RNZ file images / 123rf

Explainer – ‘Tis the season for political speculation, as pundits attempt to predict the future of National and Labour party leaders.

What happens when political parties decide it’s time to launch a challenge against their leadership? As one expert describes, it can trigger a “Shakespearean” battle for power.

To be clear, there’s been absolutely no sign there will be a leadership change for National or Labour at this moment in time.

But persistent murmurs about Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership have increased in recent weeks, with senior MP Chris Bishop having to deny he was plotting to roll Luxon, while the Sunday Star-Times on the weekend featured a story by national affairs editor Andrea Vance calling recent actions by Bishop a “failed coup”.

Chris Bishop, left, has dismissed rumours he sought Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s job. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Luxon’s poll rating as preferred prime minister was under 20 percent in September’s RNZ/Reid poll and the government’s performance rating hit a new low in the recent IPSOS Issues Survey.

But does that all actually add up to a possible leadership challenge before next year’s election?

New Zealand history is filled with dramatic moments when confidence in a party leader has dropped and a leadership challenge is held. They’ve even happened to sitting prime ministers.

Here’s how leadership challenges tend to work.

Christopher Luxon was named National Party leader in late 2021. Supplied / National Party

How does a leadership change happen?

It’s as simple as a member of the party caucus calling for a no-confidence vote in its leader. If the party heads up the government, that could mean a change in prime minister if the vote succeeds.

For the National Party, it’s a straightforward majority rule vote by the party’s MPs.

“Formally, in the case of the National Party the decision rests with the caucus (which the party’s constitution refers to as the ‘Parliamentary Section’), which can move at any time to replace the leader (who must then be approved by the board),” Massey University professor of politics Richard Shaw said.

The Labour Party caucus also can directly vote for its new leaders, but if it doesn’t make a decision within seven days, it gets turned over to their electoral college – a combination of the caucus, party members and unions – to decide.

Prospective leaders must also get a two-thirds majority in the Labour caucus vote, or it’s also off to the electoral college.

The caucus room vote totals in leadership elections are generally not made public.

“Any member of caucus could go to a caucus meeting and in theory give notice that they’d like to move that the caucus has no confidence in a leader,” said Chris Eichbaum, adjunct professor at the School of Government at Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington.

“If you were in a splendid isolation of one that wouldn’t last long,” however, he noted.

A successful leadership challenge is all about building up the votes.

This process can play out in the media – witness how many columns and hot takes have been published in the past few months speculating about the prospects of Chris Bishop, Education Minister Erica Stanford or Finance Minister Nicola Willis – but it also plays out behind the scenes at Parliament, said Eichbaum.

“It is incredibly Shakespearean – it is covert, it’s behind the scenes, there’s speculation, and then something will happen to turn speculation into substance. And if it’s a serious challenge, that’s where people start doing the numbers.

“It tends to be part of the choreography of it that once it becomes known that there is a move afoot to unseat then essentially it’s a matter of the candidates, the incumbent and the challenger sort of doing the votes.

“… One of his allies or it could even be one of the party whips, they may present the prime minister with a list saying: ‘Prime minister, you simply don’t have the votes.'”

Prime Minister Jim Bolger. AFP

Has a sitting prime minister ever been rolled?

Several New Zealand prime ministers have resigned after facing leadership challenges, although the last time it happened was nearly 30 years ago when Jenny Shipley mounted a challenge against the late Prime Minister Jim Bolger in 1997. Bolger resigned before a vote was taken, a tactic which has generally proven to be the case instead of prime ministers being forced out by a vote.

Other prime ministers in relatively recent times who stepped down include Sir Geoffrey Palmer, who resigned and was replaced by Mike Moore prior to the 1990 election, or David Lange who resigned in 1988 after unsuccessful challenges to his leadership.

Eichbaum worked in the Beehive as an executive assistant at the time that Sir Geoffrey faced a challenge by his Cabinet, and then went on to work as a senior advisor for Helen Clark.

“Palmer went about six weeks out from the 1990 election,” he said. “But the issue was never taken to the caucus – where he may well have enjoyed majority support – because essentially, reflecting polling that indicated some Cabinet members were at risk of losing their seats, he was told that he didn’t enjoy the confidence of his cabinet or sufficient of them. His erstwhile senior colleague Mike Moore made no secret of his willingness to assume the role.”

Mike Moore, Geoffrey Palmer and David Lange being sworn into cabinet, 1984. All three would become prime minister for a time. Supplied

And then there’s leaders who stood down after losing an election like Helen Clark, or resigned for other reasons like Sir John Key and Dame Jacinda Ardern.

“Clark stepped aside because she had lost an election, and Key and Ardern left because they had calculated that their parties stood a better chance of the next election without them,” Shaw said.

“A leadership change can occur for all sorts of reasons, some of which are internal to a political party and its sense of momentum and/or the need for a new sense of energy and direction.”

Luxon isn’t the only party leader who has been subject to leadership speculation.

Former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has remained Labour’s leader after losing the 2023 election and made no indication he plans to leave before next year’s election, although there has still been media speculation about what a change at the top might mean for Labour’s chances.

Of course, there have been heaps of leadership changes to parties outside government – the National Party went through a run of four leaders after Key resigned in 2016 until Luxon became leader in 2021, including Todd Muller’s mere 53 days at the helm, while Labour also went through four leaders between Clark and Ardern.

In Parliament on the day David Lange, left, stepped down as Prime Minister, with Geoffrey Palmer sitting beside him, 1989. National Library / Ray Pigney / Dominion Post

Do different parties have different rules?

There’s no overall guideline for leadership challenges in New Zealand politics, which are left to parties to set the rules.

For instance, the Green Party allows leadership challenges to be put forward by party delegates, such as a series of unsuccessful challenges in 2021 and 2022 to former co-leader James Shaw’s co-leadership.

The Labour Party has changed how it allows votes a few times, and from 2012 to 2021 it allowed party members, the caucus and unions to decide every leadership vote. That could result in clashing priorities, as with 2014’s leadership election, Eichbaum said.

“The most recent case involved Andrew Little and Grant Robertson, where the MPs’ preferred candidate was not the person that became the party leader.

“That was the case with Grant Robertson who was preferred by his caucus but because the broader party had basically a vote in the proceedings by dint of the arrangements they have, Andrew Little was able to come in over the top.”

Of course, facing grim polling, Little himself stepped down in 2017 just seven weeks before an election, and Deputy Leader Ardern went on to become New Zealand’s 40th prime minister.

Jacinda Ardern with Andrew Little. RNZ / Dom Thomas

What can trigger a leadership change? Is it just about the polls?

Parties can roll their leaders in disagreements over policy, and it’s been known to happen.

“Polling/public sentiment can, of course, be major drivers, but there have also been instances – and I think the 1996-1998 National/NZ First government was a case in point – in a party where a caucus and a cabinet will feel that a change is due regardless of the public’s views,” Shaw said.

But these days, a lot is still driven by how they’re doing in the polls. Blame the influence of American presidential-style politics and the increasing spotlight shown on leadership – polls now typically include preferred party vote side-by-side with preferred prime minister picks.

“It’s polling twinned with a presidentialisation of politics,” Eichbaum said. “Leadership has always been important, but it’s been elevated now.

“Because of the frequency of polling around leadership, the nature of the polling going into the attributes of the leader just becomes much, much more salient. There’s a machine out there and the raw material is what we think about a leader.”

Jacinda Ardern with Chris Hipkins and Grant Robertson in 2021.

But polls still aren’t the only factor, Shaw said.

“While polling and public sentiment are clearly important, there are institutional filters – including the party organisation, caucus and cabinet – which mean that the line from opinion polls to a leadership change is neither straight nor straightforward.”

While being removed as leader could be seen as humiliating, Eichbaum said leaders often have a fair bit of leverage in the process.

“There’s an element of decorum and dignity quite often which is unusual in politics. At times, they say: ‘Okay, what’s in the best interest in the party in this situation?’

“He or she may well say ‘All right, I will resign, but I want these things to occur,'” he said.

Leaders could also be heavily involved in tapping their preferred successor, such as when Sir Bill English replaced Key.

How a prime minister manages their caucus – particularly if it’s large – also matters. Every vote counts in a leadership race, whether it’s a senior MP or an obscure back-bencher.

One of the roles of a prime minister is “basic HR,” Eichbaum said.

“A very, very good prime minister will make a point of staying very close to his or her caucus and also meeting with backbenchers on a regular basis.”

Luxon told reporters recently he had “no concerns” for those National MPs who could lose their jobs on current polling, explaining he was confident all its MPs would return after the election.

Still, fears for marginal seats or list MPs can also play a role in being rolled. “If you’re one of those (at-risk) MPs, how do you feel?” Eichbaum asked, describing the “creeping incremental insecurity” that has emerged to fuel previous challenges.

Prime Minister Jenny Shipley with Winston Peters. AFP

What happens if the government is a coalition and the leader is rolled?

The nature of a coalition requires cooperation. In the 1996-1998 National/NZ First government, the coalition crumbled in 1998 when Prime Minister Jenny Shipley sacked Winston Peters from cabinet. Peters and NZ First had gone into government with Bolger, who was rolled by Shipley. Only a small group of independent MPs held the government together until the 1999 election.

“The interesting thing about what happened with Bolger, and I think this raises issues in the current context, is how its coalition partner reacted to Bolger being rolled,” Shaw said. “I don’t recall there being a significant public outcry, but there certainly was a significant response from NZF.”

The current three-headed Coalition of NZ First, ACT and the National Party could also create issues if Luxon were replaced.

“Hypothetically, therefore, were the National Party to seriously entertain removing Luxon as party leader, the fact that he is also the prime minister gives the ACT and NZF parties some stake in the issue as well,” Shaw said.

“In other words, in cases of coalition government the issue of the party leader is necessarily an issue for the government’s constituent partners.

“Any destabilisation of a coalition government’s major player, it’s going to be of deep interest to the coalition’s minor players.”

The current coalition government consists of National, ACT and New Zealand First. RNZ / Samuel Rillstone

Don’t the public get any say in these things?

We elect our local electorate MPs and choose our preferred party when we vote, but the public doesn’t get to choose what might happen inside the Beehive after Election Day.

Still, how the public may react to leadership changes is key.

“The optics of these things are also important and that’s a consideration,” Eichbaum said.

For instance, Australia went through five prime ministers in 10 years in a series of leadership spills creating what was called “a decade of disposable prime ministers.”

“Is the party going to get a bump in the polls as a result of a person going? What’s it doing to the perception or the perception of the party as the kind of viable governing force if we are seen as a house divided against itself and we can’t hold on to a prime minister?”

And of course, there’s also this factoid – any time in the past 50 years or so that a prime minister has resigned mid-term, their party has gone on to lose the next general election.

Eichbaum said current talk about leadership challenges is largely fuelled by the media, but in the end, it really all comes down to what happens inside party caucuses.

“A very well-executed leadership spill of course – this is where Shakespeare comes back in – you know, you’re not going to see it coming.”

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

Ikea opening day: Nearby businesses preparing for mayhem

Source: Radio New Zealand

In Auckland, businesses near the new Ikea store are steeling themselves for a stampeed to the homeware giant’s opening on Thursday.

Traffic experts have run their numbers and expect crowds of up to 20,000 a day, with a 40-minute crawl on the nearby motorway and another 40 to find a car park.

Ikea’s three-storey blue box consumes a whole block at Mt Wellington, with 544 carparks, close to 37 bike racks and 28 motorbike bays – for those not taking home the flat packs.

Just a few doors down, Cloud 777 Cafe manager Vicky John is expecting local roads to be a jam.

“I know it’s going to be hectic around this little area, it’s already crazy as it is. With Ikea opening it’s just going to create more traffic jams.”

RNZ / Marika Khabazi

She starts work at 5am and is worried traffic will be bad when she finishes mid-afternoon.

They’re already serving customers who work at Ikea, who describe the 34,000 square metre store as gigantic.

“It’s next level off the charts. A lot of the staff that are working in there are my customers, so the builders, the electricians are coming in and they’re already telling me it’s next level.”

A strip of retailers across the road from the new-comer are preparing to guard their customer carparks – Ikea’s carpark opens at 8.30am on Thursday, the store opens at 11am.

An extra carpark will be available to manage overflows in Ikea’s parking lot to accommodate another 400 vehicles nearby, on Carbine Road.

Ikea said it’s not possible to camp in their carpark and anyone attempting an overnighter will be moved on.

Computer Lounge sales director Alex van der Linde said he’ll be leaving home at least an hour earlier than usual to try to beat traffic.

“We’re all prepared to be coming in early and just accounting for the additional traffic, I anticipate that the majority of Carbine Road is going to be on gridlock for most of the day.”

Supplied/IKEA

He said they hope to get a boost in business from Ikea customers.

“We expect that we’ll have a lot more eyes on our business as people are driving past, even though they’re obviously going to Ikea. We’re doing what we can to expose ourselves a little bit more to the street, working on signage, that sort of thing.”

Next door, Rock Shop branch manager Michael Greenwood said he’ll still drive to work.

“I’ll be allowing myself quite a bit of extra time to get to work, especially in the first week of it opening when there will be a lot of people wanting to go have a look, everybody at the same time.

“In terms of how it will effect our business, we don’t really know. It may impact us for a period of time but it will also, in the longer term, benefit us.”

Auckland Transport’s operations centre will be a hive of activity when Ikea opens and manager Claire Howard said anyone heading to Ikea’s opening should expect delays.

“Around that Mt Wellington area it is already a very busy area. We’ve been planning for a large amount of congestion and traffic delays around that Mt Wellington Highway, and around Ikea especially where people are coming into the car parking and coming out.”

RNZ / Marika Khabazi

The motorway interchange at Mt Wellington will be a pinch point.

“Worst case scenario we’re looking at potentially 40 minutes to get off the motorway… and people could spend up to an hour trying to get parking.”

She said they’ve learned from Costco’s opening – and expect Saturdays to be busiest.

Even though she’s a few doors down, John said she won’t be going near Ikea this week.

“It’s just going to be too crazy and being a Thursday, one of our busiest days, and with that opening next door to me there’s just no way we’re going to go.”

Auckland Transport is encouraging people to bus or train to Ikea to avoid traffic delays.

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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand