Source: Radio New Zealand
Forty-eight percent of the population are expected to identify with an ethnicity other than New Zealand European by 2048, according to a new report. RNZ / ZIMING LI
The author of a new report is calling for a long-term population strategy as the population ages, birth rates decline and ethnic diversity increases.
Titled “People, Place and Prosperity”, the report was published by independent think tank Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures on Tuesday.
Co-author Paul Spoonley warned that New Zealand was at a demographic inflection point, noting that it was essential to plan ahead.
“The point we’re making is that it’s 2026, and we know what the population is going to look like in 2036 or 2046,” Spoonley told RNZ’s Midday Report.
“None of these should come as a surprise. Why don’t we plan for it at this point?”
Paul Spoonley, co-author of the “People, Place and Prosperity” report RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
The report outlined how slowing population growth, record-low fertility, a rapidly ageing population, and an increasing reliance on immigration as the major source of population and workforce growth would shape New Zealand’s future.
The country would also continue to see a rapid increase in ethnic diversity, it said.
By 2048, 22 percent of New Zealanders are expected to be over the age of 65 while 48 percent are expected to identify with an ethnicity other than New Zealand European, the report said.
Many regions will exceed the threshold for “hyperageing”, with over-65s making up more than 30 percent of their respective populations, the report said.
“Firstly is the cost, so the cost of superannuation and the cost of healthcare. And then secondly, where are the services and infrastructure to support that ageing population,” Spoonley said.
“We are seeing enormous growth in our major city, Auckland, mainly because of immigration. But when we get into the provinces, the rural sectors, the smaller towns, they are struggling to meet the ageing needs of a population.”
A music performer plays a drum at the Diwali celebrations in 2023. RNZ / YITING LIN
In addition, high rates of immigration since 2013, albeit with some dips, have added to the ethnic and cultural diversity of New Zealand, especially in younger age groups, the report said.
“Today, diversity is no longer something that arrives from abroad, it is embedded in our demography, given the ethnic and cultural diversity of new generations of New Zealanders,” it said.
Spoonley said migrants relocated here because there were labour force shortages in the country but, at the same time, that had brought challenges to housing and infrastructure.
“For me, the question is, we need to have a debate about immigration, but what’s the number where we can manage the impact on demand but also make sure that we’re meeting our needs as a labor market.”
The report said growing ethnic diversity presented unique opportunities for innovation, creativity and problem-solving.
“But, as we have seen elsewhere, it also represents a point of fracture and division if underlying anxieties are not addressed,” it said.
The country’s fertility rate had fallen to a record low of 1.55 births per woman, well below replacement fertility of 2.1, the report said.
These trends, combined with the loss of talent overseas and growing global competition for workers, especially skilled workers, were placing pressure on productivity, workforce supply and public finances, it said.
Spoonley said the development of a coherent, consistent and bipartisan population strategy was needed, and having an independent agency might help.
“The three-year cycle where things get politicised very quickly does not help anticipating and then investing in the infrastructure and services and whatever else you need the policies over the longer term,” he said.
“We need to do that, and that’s why we suggest taking it out of the political arena and making it the responsibility of an independent commission.”
A population strategy, spearheaded by a new population commission and informed by evidence and engagement from wider government, research institutions, industry and civil society would be the first step to prepare New Zealand to thrive amongst demographic change, the report said.
The strategy also needed to consider evidence relating to all the elements of the country’s changing demography: rapid ageing, declining fertility, the growth and decline trajectories for different regions, and the growing reliance on immigration as a major source of both population growth and labour supply to understand the overall story of demographic change, it said.
– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand