The Oscars are coming up and it’s anyone’s game

Source: Radio New Zealand

With the Academy Awards right around the corner, it’s difficult to find another year when the race was this wide open, this late in the game.

The Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and Actor (formerly SAG) Awards are now firmly in the rearview mirror, and while some elements have come into sharper focus – it’s Hamnet star Jessie Buckley’s best actress Oscar to lose, for instance – many other aspects of the race remain foggy to predict at best, like who might walk away with the best actor trophy opposite her.

And that’s not to mention the seemingly wide-open fields in both supporting actor races.

Irish actress Jessie Buckley accepts the award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture for Hamnet.

VALERIE MACON

. RNZ will live blog the red carpet and the awards show from 11am.

A breakdown of top categories follows:

Best picture

Regina Hall in One Battle After Another.

Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures via CNN Newsource

Two titans seem sure to be big competitors on Oscar night, namely critical darlings One Battle After Another and Sinners.

Pointed commentaries on racial inequality and American values, featuring a handful of buzzy performances and fuelling strong word of mouth, these two Warner Bros. Pictures films (which come from CNN parent Warner Bros. Discovery) both had considerable momentum going into the season.

But while 14-time Oscar nominee Paul Thomas Anderson’s Battle seemed like the one to beat a few months ago – especially after best picture wins at the Golden Globes (on the comedy side, inexplicably), Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has picked up more than a little renewed steam, mainly after the film’s decisive ensemble win at the Actor Awards on Sunday.

It’s been 15 years since the Academy opened up the best picture race to more than the previously fixed number of five nominees – vacillating between eight and ten best picture contenders, and settling consistently on ten for the last few years. This year, there are of course some other contenders in the ten-film category – including Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Hamnet and Bugonia – but the race seems set for the vampires versus the revolutionaries.

Best actress

Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley and Bodhi Rae Breathnach in director Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.

Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features via CNN Newsource

In the clearest-seeming race of them all, Jessie Buckley’s portrayal of a grief-stricken mother and wife to William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet looks all but sure to net the Oscar, after she was previously up for best supporting actress in 2022 for The Lost Daughter. Buckley’s recent passionate and emotional speech at the Actor Awards, mostly directed toward her Hamnet costar Emily Watson, certainly only helped her chances.

In addition to Buckley, two of the other women up for best actress have been nominated before (the Academy loves return nominees), but if anyone might be able to pull off an upset, it’s a tossup between the two first-timers: Rose Byrne, who won best actress in the comedy category at the Golden Globes for her work as an overextended mother in the harrowing If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and acclaimed Norwegian performer Renate Reinsve as a resentful daughter in Sentimental Value.

Australian actress Rose Byrne won the Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy award for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” during the 83rd annual Golden Globe Awards on January 11, 2026.

AFP / Etienne Laurent

Best actor

Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent.

MK2 Films via CNN Newsource

This is where any confident handicapping ends, and the rest of the acting categories are essentially anyone’s game.

Early momentum for best actor went to Timothée ‘I-want-to-be-one-of-the-greats’ Chalamet, who clinched the Golden Globe, comedy lead actor award as well as the Critics Choice Award. But both the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards threw a bit of a wrench in things, with the Brits awarding non-Oscar nominee Robert Aramayo (for I Swear) and the Screen Actors Guild bestowing best actor honours on Michael B. Jordan for his twin roles of Smoke and Stack in Sinners.

Jordan might indeed ride the wave of Sinners love all the way to the Oscars podium, or it just might be Timmy’s turn (Chalamet was also nominated last year for portraying Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, which won him the then-still-named SAG Award).

But let’s not forget Narcos actor Wagner Moura, who made waves for his work in the Brazilian film The Secret Agent, winning him best actor at Cannes, as well as the Golden Globe for lead actor in the drama category.

Best supporting actress

Amy Madigan in Weapons.

Warner Bros. via CNN Newsource

The best supporting actress race is, historically, a tough one to predict, and this year is no exception. While Teyana Taylor’s visceral, kinetic performance as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in One Battle After Another was the early favourite after her Golden Globe win, two other attention-getting actresses have kept reinserting themselves into the conversation, thanks to their undeniable work.

The first is Amy Madigan, known to most for ’80s films like Uncle Buck and Field of Dreams, who turned out a bonkers performance as the villainous witch Aunt Gladys in last summer’s breakout elevated horror hit Weapons (also from Warner Bros.). With both the Critics Choice and Actor Award under Madigan’s belt, the Oscar may very well fall under Gladys’ spell come 15 March.

But we shouldn’t count out Wunmi Mosaku, whose performance as Annie in Sinners rooted the film in heritage, magic and heart. Mosaku won the BAFTA award in this category last month, and in case there’s a Sinners sweep come Oscar night, hers would be thoroughly deserved.

While horror doesn’t often get recognized by the Academy, both Madigan and Mosaku are up for playing magically inclined women in horror films this year, and remind us that there is a precedent – Ruth Gordon won supporting actress Oscar gold in 1969 for playing a similarly witchy character in Rosemary’s Baby, and landmark genre films like The Exorcist and Aliens also received Academy recognition for the actresses who starred in them.

Best supporting actor

Does the monster’s new look reveal something about our modern age? A scene from the new “Frankenstein” film directed by Guillermo del Toro. Ken Woroner/Netflix A scene from the new Frankenstein film directed by Guillermo del Toro.

Netflix

Last but certainly not least is best supporting actor, which could go to a newly minted star, industry veterans enjoying their first nomination or heavyweights with Oscar hardware already sitting at home.

Let’s start with the newbie – Jacob Elordi has been getting recognition for his transformative portrait of the creature in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, including a win at the Critics Choice Awards. If 2017’s The Shape of Water is any indication, one should never write off this visionary director’s projects when it comes to the Oscars’ affections.

Then there are the industry vets who are basking in their first Academy Award nominations, namely Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value and Delroy Lindo for Sinners. Skarsgård was surprised and gracious when he won best supporting actor at the Golden Globes, topped only by Lindo’s sheer gratitude when he took the microphone after Sinners won for best motion picture cast at the Actor Awards. Both actors boast prolific and respected bodies of work, and each contributed head-turning performances this year.

Lastly, there are the One Battle After Another boys, previous Oscar-winners Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro. While it might be tempting to assume they would split the vote and cancel each other out (much like what looks to be the case with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value in the previous category), Penn has been getting late-in-the-game attention for his physical and gritty portrayal of a hardened, racist, misogynistic colonel in Battle. So far, he’s clinched the BAFTA and Actor Awards. It really is anyone’s game.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand